The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three
Welcome back to the 2021 MLB DFS season! As many of you know, MLB DFS is all about stacking so it only makes sense to focus on that in this article. I will list my favorite plays within each stack to make it easier to build a lineup from the recommendations. There may be more guys on team that can be used and salary will certainly dictate that, but the guys I list are my favorites within that team and can be mixed and matched. When we “stack”, that traditionally means that we play 3 to 5 guys from a particular team so that we can have exposure among multiple players throughout that lineup of the runs generated. Stacking could come in the form of a 5/3 stack (five players from one team and 3 from another), a 4/4, or even a 5/2/1 or 4/3/1. My personal favorite is a 3/3/2 as it allows me to get exposure to three of my favorite teams on a slate.
We should note that this MLB DFS season will play a little different then previous seasons as Covid-19 has made for an abbreviated year last year which could change how starting pitchers are used THIS season, how lineups and substitutions are managed, as well as the virus still being around, leading to positive tests and causing players to quarantine. Regardless, I am just happy to have the sport back and it should be a lot of fun. Tread lightly for the first couple weeks as we see how things are shaking out and we get a solid data set to work off!
Use these MLB plays along with your own research! Remember, this is a GPP-style article (outside of the cash cores) so I take some more chances than others. The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU. Let’s dive in!
*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible MLB DFS matchup tool!
Any changes or edits will be marked in Red – check back before lock!
Top Pitcher (no order, both sites):
Boom-or-bust: Darvish, Dunning (DK), Anderson (FD), Skubal (both)
Notes: I know I am running a little late today so I will make it quick! Nola gets the Yanks tonight whose bark may be bigger than their bite at this point. Nola comes in with the third highest swinging strike rate on the slate over the last month and the third lowest xfip on the slate. Speaking of which, his 3.36 xfip is much lower than his 4.50 ERA which means he is pitching much better than the surface ERA suggests. I hate the weather in Yankee Stadium but the pinstripes have maybe three guys at most that scare me in that lineup and Nola is no stranger to pitching in a bad ballpark. The Yanks come in with the 8th worst wOBA over the last month to righties. I will be focusing my attention largely on him on both sites. As always, never expose yourself too much to one pitcher as anything can happen but I think he will be in my primary lineup. Speaking of bad stadiums and scary weather, Marquez is pitching in a hot Coors so we should proceed with caution but the matchup is a good one. Seattle is 7th in strikeout rate to righties over the last month and Marquez has actually been better at home than on the road this season as he is guy whos pitch mix hasn’t really been affected by Coors, inducing a low launch angle and that will be necessary in that atmosphere tonight. McClanahan gets Baltimore who had a nice run against lefties earlier this season but come in with the third worst wOBA and ISO to southpaws over the last month. Shane has the best xfip on the slate over the last month and his 28% K rate in that time is 5th on the slate. He is allowing a miniscule 28% hard contact rate to go with a very low 29% flyball rate ad the stadium is great for pitchers so I think he will be fine tonight.
Top MLB Team Stacks (both sites, no order)
– I am going to list my preferred player stack, but these aren’t the only guys I would use as there may be some others that offer us salary relief.
– Jays (Guerrero/Bichette/Springer/Hernandez/Biggio) – Richards is allowing the third most hard contact on the slate over the last month while his swinging strike rate is the second lowest in that time. That is not a good recipe for success in this stadium against the number 1 team to righties in the league.
– Reds (Winker/Votto/Stephenson/Suarez/Naquin) – This stdaium played like Coors last night and it should against tonight, especially with “Robert Stock” on the mound on the other side. Stock is allowing a whopping 95mph exit velocity and the Reds, even though they’re missing Castellanos, are still one of the best teams to righties at home.
– Philly (Harper/Hoskins/Gregorius/Miller/Realmuto/McCutchen) – I should probably have this stack in the “boom-or-bust” section because, well…they’re the Phillies BUT I just have a feeling about them tonight. They have been way too good against righties lately to ignore and they get German who is significantly worse at home. He is allowing over THREE homers per nine innings at home compared to just like .6 per nine on the road. Meanwhile, Philly comes in with the third highest ISO in the league to righties over the last month and German’s reverse splits will help out a righty-heavy lineup.
Top Boom-or-Bust Stacks
– White Sox (Abreu/Moncada/Anderson/Sheets/Goodwin) –
– Padres (Tatis/Machado/Cronenworth/Grisham/Pham) –
– Boston (Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers/Verdugo/Duran) –
Top One-Off Plays
Guys who I like but don’t necessarily want to play a full team stack of their respective team
– Story, Col
– Cruz/Donaldson, Min
– Reynolds, Pit
Cash Game Foundation
*Since hedging your tourneys with cash games is extremely important in these daily sports like MLB, we have decided to include a cash game (double ups, 50/50’s) section at the bottom of our MLB DFS articles this season. These guys will be my foundation for cash games. I will focus mainly on where I think ownership will be and solid floors more so than who the actual “best” play at the position will be. Some guys have very high ceilings suited best for GPP while also having low floors not ideal for cash games. It is imperative that we play ownership in cash as we just need to beat half the field in these games rather than finish first. We want to pay close attention to where the field is going so if we have a bust at high ownership it doesn’t bury us. I love tourneys because they give me a chance to take some risks, but we want to play it safe in double-ups so I use my cash games to maybe eat some chalk that I may not be particularly high on because, again, we want to play ownership in cash.
***will make an update here around 12:30pm! ***
FD Cash Core: Nola, Winker, Story
Other cash plays: McClanahan, Garcia
1B: Guerrero, Cron, Votto
2B: Hampson, Hernandez, Biggio
3B: Guerrero, Devers, McMahon
SS: Semien, Bichette, Story, Tatis
OF:Tor, Cin, Hampson, Grisham, harper, Blackmon, Alvarez
DK Cash core: Nola, Story, Winker
Other DK Cash P: McClanahan, Skubal, Yu (weather permitting)
C: Garver, Realmuto, Caratini
1B: Alonso, Votto, Guerrero, Sheets
2B: Hampson, Moore, India
3B Seager, Devers, Suarez (This position seems a little wide open so you can go with who you like here rather than ownership)
SS: Story, Bichette, Bogaerts
OF: Coors, Winker, Aquino, Grisham, Harper, Martinez, Springer, Sheets, Duran, Naquin
As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup, that weather is okay, and keep an eye on Vegas odds. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!