NASCAR DFS Picks: Buschy McBusch Race 400

NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Buschy McBusch Race 400

Article Overview:

Welcome to Left Turns -NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel write-up at Top Flight Fantasy Sports. Besides this article, we at Top Flight Fantasy Sports have the DraftKings NASCAR Control Tower & FanDuel NASCAR Control Tower putting tons of stats, projections, and proprietary grades in everyone’s hands. We also have a NASCAR DraftKings Optimizer & NASCAR FanDuel Optimizer that will be a huge help with all of the MME this season. And let’s be real about this – NASCAR is an MME sport. I know not everyone can play MME, so below I give you the plays I like best every week. You can use these plays as your core for MME as well.

GEICO 500 Race Details:

Track: Kansas Speedway

Type: Intermediate (1.5 Miles)

Time: Sunday, May 2 @ 3:00 pm EST 

In a normal season, I would say this is a pretty straight forward race. We have 267 laps at Kansas, so it should be a mid way race, mostly looking at lap leaders, but making sure to use PD to maximize our lineups. This weekend, it’s a little different. We can blame Covid.

Qualifying positions were set using an algorithm because of NASCAR safety protocols. The algorithm puts a lot of emphasis on the previous race results to assist in making the starting lineup. That makes this week a mess since we have so many drivers who had issues last week starting this race further back for the Buschy McBusch Race 400. While we don’t want to completely ignore drivers who are starting up front who could lead laps for us, we have so many drivers with HUGE place differential potential that we can’t ignore them. in doing my research, I could the information from the Kansas spring race in 2019 to be a good reference for this. They had qualifying and practice for that one, but during OSS inspection a bunch of drivers had their qualifying times disqualified and they started from the back instead. Some of those drivers finished really well.

In short, we want to start drivers who are starting further back than expected. We want to reference recent races to know who has the speed to make those moves. If you think a driver up front will lead a bunch of laps, then start them. If you think you have the driver who’s going to win the race, then start them. Don’t ignore drivers who are up front if you think they are fast. Look at Atlanta, Las Vegas, & Homestead for fast cars in this package on the same track length as a comparison.

As a note, DraftKings is aware of the starting algorithm and seems to be setting their pricing to it. Making a lineup there is going to be a lot different than FanDuel. I’ll make it simple for Cash this week on both sites – play as much PD as possible from the fast drivers. I’d probably ignore laps led for the most part.

The Dominators

These are your higher price drivers for NASCAR DFS. Depending on the race, and where they are starting, they are more than likely chalk. 

A little messy this week as I stated above. Pricing is a little silly over on DraftKings due to the Algorithm for qualifying. That means a lot of guys falling into this range.

The biggest one, and the driver who should see a ton of ownership this week, is Kyle Larson. Larson ran into trouble last week at Talladega, meaning that he’s starting all the way back in 32nd this week. If you’ve looked at the comparison tracks I mentioned above, you’ll note that he’s led 44% of the laps at those 3 tracks. You can’t get any more evidence of speed than that!

Next I like Denny Hamlin who is starting back in 20th. Hamlin has won 2 of the last 3 Kansas races with one of those from the 23rd starting spot. He has also led more laps than any driver in the past 3 races this season, so his current form is great right now.

Joey Logano is in a good spot as well starting 29th. He won the most recent Kansas race from last season, and while he’s had a relatively quiet season, he’s much better than his 29th starting position.

Other PD drivers I like this week:

Chase Elliott (17th), Alex Bowman (25th), Martin Truex Jr. (15th)

Notes:

I think I’d avoid paying up fro Brad Keselowski on FanDuel this week, but he’s a bit more playable at his price on DraftKings.

The Contenders

The mid-range drivers for NASCAR DFS. These drivers have top 5 potential and will often see some decent ownership. 

Since some of the drivers I mentioned above fall into this range this week, they of course are playable here for the site they relate to! Digging a little deeper, we see that most of the drivers here are ones who could lead laps for us more than help on the PD side. Aagin, if you think a driver from this range will win, PLAY THEM.

A name that stands out here for me is Ryan Blaney. Blaney starts 7th in this one, and led 25 laps on his way to a win in the Atlanta race with 28 fastest laps. He also had 16 fastest laps and a 5th place finish in Las Vegas after starting 25th.

I also like William Byron a lot this week. He’s starting the Buschy McBusch Race 400 from the 2nd position. When you look at comparison tracks, you’ll see that Byron won at Homestead, finished 8th at Las Vegas, and 8th at Atlanta. That’s some decent speed we can hope means to some good laps led this week.

You can of course start Kevin Harvick this week. Harvick is starting this race from the 4th spot and he has 2 wins in his last 10 here as well as 8 total top 10 finishes. He’s also led more laps than everyone in those 10 races.

Over on DraftKings, the pricing is a little deeper, so you can also look at Ricky Stenhouse as a potential PD play starting at 23rd. He hasn’t finished worse than 13th at the comparison tracks this season.

The Pack

Your lower tier priced players on both sites. These guys more than likely won’t win the race. Here we will target drivers who will get us points through Place Differential for NASCAR DFS.

I’d be lying to you if I told you this was a good range to play a lot of this week, but with all of the higher priced guys as PD selections, we need to use some of these drivers for sure.

Austin Cindric gives us our best chance of PD from this range. He’s starting 38th, and made his way up to 22nd in the Las Vegas race from 39th. He also led 131 laps at Kansas in the Xfinity race last season.

I have 2 drivers who are kinda “inbetweeners” this week in Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher. Tyler Reddick is starting 11th this week and he finished 2nd at Homestead. He didn’t fare as well in the other comp races, but I think he could lead laps if he can get up there, as well as finish top 10-15. Buescher is  starting 16th this week. At Homestead, He finished 17th, but had 57 fastest laps. At Las Vegas he finished 14th, and at Atlanta, he finished 7th with 10 fastest laps.

The Yellow Flags 

These are your deep punts – use with caution! They will help you fit the high-price drivers but may not do much more for NASCAR DFS. Minimize their use in your lineups. Do not use in cash!

I don’t like any of the plays here this week, but if you need the salary relief, Anthony Alfredo is starting 22nd, and had OK speed compared to the rest of the drivers in the punt zone at the compa tracks. Expect negative PD, but an OK finish.

 

Good luck and have fun but remember that NASCAR is an extremely volatile sport. Never go a full 100% on any driver.


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Jeff Talbot

Jeff Talbot writes articles for both NFL & NASCAR. He is a member of the FSWA and is an avid player of all Daily Fantasy Sports. Find him on DraftKings and FanDuel @boottmills. Find him on Twitter @BoottmillsDFS