Welcome to Left Turns – The NASCAR DFS picks write-up at Top Flight Fantasy Sports. Besides this article, we at Top Flight Fantasy Sports have the DraftKings NASCAR Control Tower & FanDuel NASCAR Control Tower putting tons of stats, projections, and proprietary grades in everyone’s hands. We also have a NASCAR DraftKings Optimizer & NASCAR FanDuel Optimizer that will be a huge help with all of the MME this season. And let’s be real about this – NASCAR is an MME sport. I know not everyone can play MME, so below I give you the plays I like best every week. You can use these plays as your core for MME as well.
Dixie Vodka 400 Race Details:
Track: Homestead – Miami Speedway
Type: Steep Intermediate (1.5 Miles)
Time: Sunday, February 28, 2020 @ 3:30 pm EST
We have our first taste of racing normalcy this week as the series heads to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400. This is a 267 lap race meaning we have a Dominator race on our hands. When we have a Dominator race we want to start 1-2 drivers who will lead a bunch of laps for us and then drivers who are starting further back with fast cars who we can us for Place Differential.
Since we’re looking at early season information, mostly what we can look at in current form comes in the way of speed. We have to reference information from previous races here and other similar tracks to get an idea of how drivers can run here. I think I will be looking at more of a balanced lineup base for this race since the value is all over the place with so many high priced drivers starting far back and the lower end guys getting higher starts. I have been running the opto a bunch, and it’s throwing out a lot of balance too especially on DraftKings.
These are your higher price drivers for NASCAR DFS. Depending on the race, and where they are starting, they are more than likely chalk.
Not going to go crazy here, as I like pretty much every driver up in the top price bracket this week. My issue comes down to fitting them. I think if we can focus on taking 1 for lead laps, and 1 for PD we could be in a good spot. You may have to go with only one here to make a good lineup though due to how pricing is.
For lead laps we want to look at Martin Truex Jr (9th), Chase Elliott (11th), Kevin Harvick (4th), and Denny Hamlin (1st). Hamlin has 2 wins and 8 top 10’s career here, including winning from the pole here last season. Harvick has a win and 9 top 10 finishes here. Elliott has 3 top 10’s in his 5 races here, but 2 are top 5’s. Truex has a win, with 5 top 5 finishes and 6 total top 10’s. All of these drivers can lead laps in this race, but Hamlin has the easiest chance starting on the pole. There’s a big discount for him on DraftKings too.
Looking to the higher end drivers to benefit us on the Place Differential side we can look to Kyle Busch (24th), and Kyle Larson (17th). Busch has done well here in the past, but has done so from really good starting spots. I imagine he will be able to move up easily enough here in this one. Larson missed last year’s race after being suspended, but he absolutely dominates at Homestead, leading more laps per race than any other driver here. I’m hoping with no data from last season he falls through the cracks a bit. I do like Busch better as he does have more PD potential.
The mid-range drivers for NASCAR DFS. These drivers have top 5 potential and will often see some decent ownership.
Christopher Bell has been outstanding so far this season with laps led in both races so far and a win last week in the road course. He’s starting 3rd this week and could lead more laps in this one. His race here last year was impressive as he had a +28 PD and an 8th place finish.
William Byron and Tyler Reddick are starting way in the back and should be great for PD in this race. Byron and Reddick both finished in the top 10 here last year and both of them had started back in the mid 20’s. Reddick even made his way to 1st at one point and led some laps. As a note, Reddick also finished the Xfinity race in 2nd place and has more time on the track because of that race.
I really like the way Austin Dillon has raced here in the last couple years with a 7th, 8th and 11th place finish in his last 3. He’s never led a lap here, but does have a career +5PD at Homestead. He’s starting 22nd in this one, allowing for more PD from this spot.
These next drivers are priced in a lower tier on FanDuel, but I’m putting them here because of DraftKings. Ross Chastain (32nd), Chase Briscoe (30th) and Matt DiBenedetto (37th) are starting great for Place Differential potential in this race. Chastain has a 3rd and 9th place finish here in the Xfinity Series and should be able to improve on his 32nd starting spot. Chase Briscoe has a 1st and a 7th place finish in the Xfinity Cup series at Homestead. He also won both Vegas race and a Darlington race. MDB is just starting way too far back. He should finish in the 20’s to high teens in speed. He also has a bunch of top 15 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks.
Notes: Both Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are starting high enough that you could use them as dominators in this one.
Your lower tier priced players on both sites. These guys more than likely won’t win the race. Here we will target drivers who will get us points through Place Differential for NASCAR DFS.
Tough area this week, as a lot of these drivers are starting a lot higher than they would be if we had qualifying.
I’m going to throw Ryan Newman as an option here. Ryan Newman is starting 23rd and has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 10 races at Homestead and he could very well be in his last season. He’s never won a race here and that streak continues, but I think he will at least maintain his position. A top 20 could happen.
I also like Corey LaJoie this week starting 25th. LaJoie has raced well at Las Vegas and Darlington last season and we could see the same thing happen here at Homestead.
The Yellow Flags
These are your deep punts – use with caution! They will help you fit the high-price drivers but may not do much more for NASCAR DFS. Minimize their use in your lineups. Do not use in cash!
If you’re going to punt, throw Timmy Hill or BJ McLeod in a line or two…Only on DraftKings though!
Good luck and have fun but remember that NASCAR is an extremely volatile sport. Never go a full 100% on any driver.