MMA DFS PICKS for UFC 258
I am an MMA/UFC super fan and usually play strictly on DraftKings. I’ll play 5 lines per event just based solely on the unpredictability of the sport. With that said, lets get to it.
Overview and Exposure for UFC 258
Usman (17-1) vs Burns (19-3):
What an awesome main event for the welterweight title. Defending champ Usman will have his toughest test to date with this one. A lot of people hate on Usman for being “boring” he has a different fighting style than most that is hard to figure out. The awesome thing about this fight is that they used to be training partners for almos 10 years, and know each other so well. If Burns could get this to the ground I would say he has a chance but Usman has never been taken down so he will have to figure out how to out grapple Usman which is damn near impossible. I lean towards Usman winning this and will have a lot of him.
Barber (8-1) vs Grasso (12-3):
The 22 year old Barber is the hottest prospect in the division and her one loss was because she tore her ACL early in the fight. Barber has finished her opponent in 7 of her 8 wins. Grasso isn’t much of a finisher but has proven to be tough and hard to put away. I am legit surprised that Barber is the slight under dog here. I’ll have some of both ladies in lines but way more Barber.
Gastelum (16-6) vs Heinisch (14-3):
Gastelum has lost 3 in a row coming in. He is super tough but it seems father time is catching up to him, he does have 10 finishes to his name. Heinisch has lost 2 of 3 coming in and has 7 finishes. I see this one going to a decision. I honestly am going to try and fade this fight if I can as I see it being a lackluster decision.
Marquez (7-2) vs Pitolo ( 13-7):
Marquez hasn’t fought in 2 years and 7 months. All 7 of his wins are by way if finish and his 2 losses are by decision. Pitolo has lost 3 of 4 coming in but has 10 finishes. Despite his long lay off I still like Marquez in this one.
Simon (17-3) vs Kelleher (22-11):
Simon is an elite wrestler who tends to smother and doesn’t have a lot of finishes. Kelleher is a veteran who is always the underdog and more often than not pulls off the upset. Kell has won 3 of 4 coming in and is super well rounded. I will have some Simon but will sneak Kelleher in some lines for the upset.
Vieira (7-0) vs Hernandez (7-2):
Vieira has the best Ju Jitsu in the entire UFC, that’s straight from Dana White’s mouth. He has finished all 7 opponents with 6 of them coming by submission. Hernandez has lost 2 of 3 coming in and has a slick submission game also. I am all in on Vieira.
Lima (15-7) vs Muhammad (17-3):
Lima is on a 3 fight win streak coming in. He isn’t super flashy but is tough veteran who knows how to wear you down, the bad thing is that Muhammad fights a similar style. I will have more Muhammad but see this being a decison.
Viana (11-4) vs Martin (7-3):
Viana has lost 3 of 4 coming in but has finished the fight in all 11 wins. Martin isn’t flashy and only has 4 finishes. Viana is surprisingly the underdog and I will take advantage of that salary.
Ewell (17-6) vs Gutierrez (15-3-2):
This is one of my favorite fights on the card. These guys are both tough and bring it every time. Ewell is 9-2 over his last 11 fights and has 11 finish wins. Guti has won 6 of 7 coming in and is an elite striker. The line on this fight is close and these guys will slug it out. I will have a lot of exposure to this one for both guys. It is worth noting that Ewell has an 8 inch reach advantage!
Green (9-3) vs Rowe (7-2):
Green has finishes in all 9 wins but has been tko’d in 2 of his 3 losses. Rowe has won 7 in a row and has all of his wins by finish also. This should be a barn burner of a fight. Rowe has an insane 7 inch reach advantage. The line on this one is virtually a pick em but I like Rowe a lot based on what I see.
Robertson (9-5) vs Maverick (8-2):
Robertson has elite level BJJ and has 6 sub wins to back that up. Maverick is on a 4 fight win streak and has never been finished, she also boasts 6 submission wins. I feel Maverick should win this and I will have a lot of exposure to her.
UFC 258 Locks:
He is pricey at $9300 but I feel he will get a quick submission win and there is plenty of value on this card to balance out the salary
He has not fought in 31 months but he is a beast and feel he can get the job done. $8700 is a good price for him.
He seems to lack the killer instinct to destroy his opponent but he is really good every where and I feel he can out last Lima. He is pricey at $9200 but there is so much upset potential that I am locking him in.
He will have a 7.5 reach advantage is only $8200! I don’t know a lot about his opponent but I think he will connect with some power punches early.
UFC 258 Toss ups:
Usman is a gigantic favorite in this fight, but no one knows him more than Burns. Burns knows what it takes to beat Usman but the question is can he do it. I honestly think Usman will retain in the same way that he always does, by lots of pressure and grappling. He is a better striker than Burns also and there is no way that Burns can get him to the ground which is what he needs to pull off the upset. Burns has more of a chance than anyone has but I feel he falls short.
This should be a good striking match up of 2 veterans. Ewell has a huge reach advantage but Gutierrez has more power in his punches. Guti is the slight favorite and if he can get inside of the reach he has a shot to win. Both of these guys have good chins so I can see this being a war with lots of points scored for both guys.
I am shocked that she is priced at $7900. I am all over that. She is a beast who comes out swinging for the fences and has a lot at stake if she can look dominate.
I plan on fading him but Gastelum has looked awful in has last few fights and Heinisch is only $7400 if you feel like rolling the dice.
She is only $7600 and there isn’t anything special to me about Martin, Viana could easily win this fight.
He is probably the biggest reach here, but he has a ton of experience and is comfortable every where in the cage and seems to flourish in the under dog role. He is only $7100 but proceed with caution.
UFC DFS is extremely unpredictable. Every fighter is a punch, kick, cut, eye poke, or slip away from the fight being stopped at any second.