NFL DFS – 1/24 Conference Championship Picks

NFL DFS Conference Championship Football

NFL DFS Conference Championship Football Strategy

When attacking a small NFL DFS slate some strategies go out the window. Usually matching up a defense going against offensive players is a big no. However, having 1-3 players going against your defense even your quarterback is no big deal here since we don’t really have much to work with. I still love stacking a quarterback with a target or two and even running it back as well. Having a heavy game stack can make you different in a small slate. The last thing to think about is don’t really pay attention to salary. Sometimes there will be a ton of money left over but if you like your plays don’t force a high price player just because you can. Remember to utilize the FD OPTO and DK OPTO.

Buccaneers @ Packers: O/U 52 Packers -3.5

I have a feeling that this game will actually be the higher scoring of the two despite the implied totals. Antonio Brown has been listed out for the game. Evans and Godwin are both questionable but should play along with Ronald Jones. On the Packers side, Lazard and Jamaal Williams are both questionable but should play as well.

Bills @ Chiefs: O/U 54.5 Chiefs -3.5

Patrick Mahomes has been cleared to play. Edwards-Helaire is questionable and Bell was a late week addition to the injury report. Sammy Watkins may have a chance of suiting up this week but keep an eye on it. The Bills only injury tag right now fantasy-wise is Gabriel Davis who hasn’t practiced this week but that is actually common this late in the season.

NFL DFS Quarterback 

1. Aaron Rodgers (FD $8.7k/ DK $6.5k)

Aaron has basically had one really bad game this year and yes it came against this Bucs team. However, we are now in the playoffs and as we saw last week with the Saints vs Bucs game the regular season doesn’t mean much now. A-Rod is on a mission and before the season I said he would win MVP and I hate myself for not betting on it back then. I am expecting this to be a competitive game between two GOATs and if the Packers pull it off it will be off Rodger’s arm.

2. Tom Brady (FD $7.8k/ DK $6.1k)

Brady is the cheapest quarterback on both sites and will leave room for some high price players we have on the slate. As mentioned before I think this game will be the higher scoring of the two and in DFS sometimes going with your gut is the way to go. He will be without one of his targets but still has an incredible receiving group to throw to.

3. Josh Allen (FD $8.5k/ DK $6.9k)

Allen gives us the upside with his legs for sure but the Chiefs defense looked really good last week. His volume is ridiculous though and that alone makes him a great play. Watching the game last week I couldn’t believe how little they ran the ball and when they did run half of it was Allen. I do have a feeling that stacking up this game due to pricing will be a little contrarian.

  • I know it is crazy to not list Mahomes but I think we need to save money on this slate and honestly, he hasn’t performed like himself in a while now.

NFL DFS Running Back

1. Aaron Jones (FD $8.0k/ DK $6.5k)

Even though I will likely be paying down as much as possible with this position he is the best option. Jones will get you double-digit carries and multiple targets but he is facing a tough rush defense and there are high-dollar receivers that need to get looks on this slate. It is going to be interesting to see how ownership pans out with every position having some high priced guys but I have a feeling Jones will have less love than other higher priced guys.

2. Ronald Jones (FD $5.6k/ DK $4.6k)

This is likely surprising to some people with the performance that Fournette had last week. Despite that Jones still had 13 carries only 4 less than Fournette and he has still been recovering from an injury. Jones may not get as many touches as Fournette but he isn’t far behind and he will likely be low-owned. For the price, he is a great play to fit in some top guys elsewhere.

3. Clyde Edwards-Helair (FD $6.2k/ DK $5.0k)/ Darrel Williams (FD $6.0k/ DK $4.8k) ( if no CEH or Bell)

If CEH ends up missing I love Williams and if CEH plays and Bell is out I still like Williams just not as much and obviously, if all are active then CEH is my play. Sorry, that was a lot. Anyway, the Bills run defense hasn’t been great and I think the Chiefs can take advantage of that. They are a passing team but the backs are involved in that aspect as well and I think their backs may be under-owned.

  • Singletary will likely be popular again for the price and being the starter but I am staying away. Jamaal Williams may be a decent punt play in this matchup.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver

1. Davante Adams (FD $8.9k/ DK $8.0k)

This is the position that makes this slate difficult and will spread out some ownership. Adams is the highest priced guy but he has absolutely dominated this year. The Bucs have been forcing teams to pass and giving up most of their yards to the air. In the last meeting, the Bucs owned the Packers but Adams still managed to have a decent game.

2. Stefon Diggs (FD $8.3k/ DK $7.0k)

On DraftKings, I would bump Diggs up to 1 due to salary. Diggs and Allen have developed quite the connection and it seems that no matter who they face Diggs will ball out. He had 11 targets last week and no less than 8 since week 4 of the season. He is the guy in Buffalo and they pass a ton so the volume will be there and look for Allen to force it to him when in trouble.

3. Tyreek Hill (FD $8.4k/ DK $7.2k)

These top receivers are honestly based on who you may be stacking them with which is why for me Hill is lower on the list. He is obviously fast and can score at any time but unlike the two above him, he has to deal with Kelce taking targets from him. There really is no wrong answer here on who you take at receiver between these top 3. Hill will get handoffs and is involved on the offense often.

4. Chris Godwin (FD $6.8k/ DK $5.4k) 

Picking between Godwin and Evans may be the key to success this weekend. Brown is out and that will open things up for Godwin and Evans but I prefer Godwin. Since the beginning of the year, Brady has seemed to favor him between the two and he is more consistent in targets.

  • Evans is in play for sure especially if you are stacking the Bucs. Cole Beasley is always a value play for me. Lazard is on my radar for packers stacks.

NFL DFS Tight End

1. Travis Kelce (FD $8.6k/ DK $8.0k)

There is no question who the best tight end in the league is and he put a show on last week once again. It is rare that he sees less than 10 targets in a game and that should happen again. He is looked at often in the red zone and is Mahomes first look on plenty of plays.

2. Robert Tonyan (FD $5.7k/ DK $3.6k)

If you are going to try and force a bunch of high priced receivers then fading Kelce will likely have to happen. In comes Big Bob Tonyan to save some salary. I am a big fan of his, he lacks targets I will admit but when the Packers get in the “gold zone” Rodgers looks for 85 to score. Kelce is THE play but Tonyan is the best salary relief at the position in my opinion.

NFL DFS Defense

1. Buffalo Bills (FD $3.4k/ DK $2.8k)

I am taking the who cares approach to picking a defense this slate. None of them are great picks and I want to save salary so I am taking the cheapest options. Just have to hope for a few sacks and a turnover or two.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FD $3.7k/ DK $2.7k) 

Once again paying down at defense. The Bucs defense is good and they tore apart the Packers last game but I don’t expect that to happen again. They have good pass rushers so sacks are likely.

NFL DFS Conference Championship Football Top Stacks

1. Rodgers, Adams, Godwin

2. Allen, Diggs, Kelce, Hill

Contrarian Stack: Brady, Evans, Godwin, Gronk, Adams

 


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Brandon Blanchard

Brandon Blanchard

Brandon contributes NFL Showdown and Single game advice weekly. You can find him on Fanduel and Twitter @blanchard1889