NFL DFS Divisional Round Sunday Football
NFL DFS Divisional Round Sunday Football Strategy
When attacking a small NFL DFS slate some strategies go out the window. Usually matching up a defense going against offensive players is a big no. However, having 1-3 players going against your defense even your quarterback is no big deal here since we don’t really have much to work with. I still love stacking a quarterback with a target or two and even running it back as well. Having a heavy game stack can make you different in a small slate. The last thing to think about is don’t really pay attention to salary. Sometimes there will be a ton of money left over but if you like your plays don’t force a high price player just because you can. Remember to utilize the FD OPTO and DK OPTO.
Browns @ Chiefs: O/U 57 Chiefs -10
Buccaneers @ Saints: O/U 51 Saints -3
Lines are as of Friday Afternoon. Check these prior to making any lines if breaking news happens prior to kickoff.
NFL DFS Quarterback
1. Pat Mahomes (FD $9.2k/ DK $7.9k)
I don’t think there is any doubt that Pat Mahomes would be heading up this list for the Sunday slate. The way the chiefs win games is by putting up points on the board, and that’s exactly what they will do against the Browns this weekend. He’s had 2 weeks to relax and heal up any aches he may have had, and even with the Browns coming off a high, the weapons for KC are just going to be too much. Mahomes will have his way with them.
2. Tom Brady (FD $7.7k/ DK $6.2k)
This game is going to be the tighter of the two, and I think the Buccaneers will rely on Tom Brady to get this one done. The Bucs are the underdog in this fight as should be expected since the Saints have really owned the Bucs this season. Brady has been reminiscent of the Tom Brady we expect to see in the playoffs though. He’s thrown 340 yards in 6 of his last 8 games, throwing multiple TD passes in all 8, and has only thrown 1 INT since the TB bye in week 13. That’s damn impressive for a 78 year old man…He’s not going to be owned as much as I think he should be, making him ideal for larger entry slates.
3. Baker Mayfield (FD $7.4k/ DK $5.2k)
This is the type of QB play that could win you a ton of money, or lead to you losing your shirt, depending on how you play DFS. I like Mayfield in this one. The Steelers defense he played last week was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league and they allowed Mayfield to throw 3 TDs. The Browns know the Chiefs are a better team, and they knew that the Steelers were a better team last week. That doesn’t mean anything to them and that could make Mayfield a steal this week. Game flow should lean toward a pass heavy offense from the Browns
- I like Brees too this weekend. It’s hard not to. But keep in mind that ownership has to be considered a little bit in these contests and I think Brees will be second in ownership percentage. Play him without regrets.
NFL DFS Running Back
1. Alvin Kamara (FD $9.0k/ DK $7.6k)
Kamara has a daunting matchup on his end with the Buccaneers being one of the best rushing defenses in the league. I think people will shy away from him because of that. What people may not see is that he’s one of 3 RBs to catch a TD pass this season against them, and though Tampa Bay only allowed 10 total rushing TDs this season, Kamara had 2 of them. He’s lacked a ton of yardage in those 2 games, making his fantasy totals a little low.
2. Nick Chubb (FD $8.2k/ DK $6.5k)
With the game looking to lean more to an air game, you could see reduced ownership on Chubb. I think more people look for the little green number next to the OPRK when picking their players than they think, and that makes him higher owned here. I also think that’s also OK as Chubb has to be involved in the passing game if the Browns are going to win, and they will want him involved as he’s the best athlete on that offense right now.
3. Le’Veon Bell (FD $6.0k/ DK $5.0k)
So CEH has the dreaded game time decision tag as of right now, and with him nursing an injury in the playoffs, I bet he plays. That doesn’t mean we won’t see ANY Lev Bell. It also doesn’t mean that this game gets out of hand and we see a lot of Lev Bell. We’re at the point in the season that players will sit if they can, and with this game projected to be so lopsided, that’s something I’m looking to take advantage of.
- It’s a revenge game narrative for Kareem Hunt, and you know he will be involved in the game. Could be a good low owned RB pivot if you don’t play Chubb. Also, Fournette is listed as the starter in TB, but if Jones plays they will split carries.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver
1. Tyreek Hill (FD $8.6k/ DK $7.3k)
If you start Mahomes and don’t pair him with Hill this week you’re doing yourself a disservice. I don’t need to go into how great he is, because we all know that. He did have a hamstring issue back in Week 17, but sat that game out as well as having the Bye last week, so I think he’s plenty healed by now. He will also probably see more looks with Sammy Watkins listed as out.
2. Michael Thomas (FD $9.0k/ DK $8.6k)
This has been a tough season for Michael Thomas. The good thing is that his ankle looked healthy last week when he caught 5 receptions for 73 yards and a TD, his first of the season. The bad thing is this matchup is a tough one. Thomas didn’t have much luck this season against the Bucs, with 8 receptions for 68 yards combined. He was hurt in both of those games though, so hopefully he will show the Michael Thomas we know he can be this Sunday.
3. Jarvis Landry (FD $6.6k/ DK $5.9k)
Landry has really stepped up since OBJ went down earlier this season. He’s pretty much doubled his average receptions per game since that time and has scored 4 TDs compared to the zero he had previously. KC has allowed a WR to surpass 100 yards in back to back games and hopefully the rest doesn’t impact that. I anticipate Landry is going to be more useful on DraftKings with the receptions points.
4. Mike Evans (FD $7.1k/ DK $6.2k) or Chris Godwin (FD $7.5k/ DK $5.7k)
Lets be real here, Brady loves to throw the ball around. He never targets one receiver over another as he is looking for the open man. Evans and Godwin have pretty close to identical stat lines this season, and if Godwin played every week they would more than likely be even closer. You can’t go wrong with either of these guys really, but Evans will probably see more Lattimore.
- In the off chance that either Evans or Godwin don’t play, Antonio Brown has to be in the conversation. No Sammy Watkins means that Mecole Hardman may see some looks this week as well.
NFL DFS Tight End
1. Travis Kelce (FD $8.5k/ DK $7.7k)
This shouldn’t be a shock to anyone as Travis Kelce is in a league of his own when it comes to the TE position. Kelce is head and shoulders above the talent level for TEs pretty much every week, and this week is no exception. Unfortunately he costs a ton more compared to what these other players command, but will be worth paying up for since he AVERAGES 22 fantasy points per game.
2. Austin Hooper (FD $6.6k/ DK $5.0k)
Hooper has established himself as one of Baker Mayfield’s favorite targets in the latter half of the season, with Hooper catching 4 TDs in his last 6 games and being looked at in important situations. He also has 2 games in that span with over 10 targets. The Chiefs are allowing a ton of yards to TEs this season, so he may be the best opportunity to move the chains if the going gets tough for the Browns.
NFL DFS Defense
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FD $3.9k/ DK $2.9k)
You need to play a defense, so why not the Bucs. They have one of the better defenses in the league and have seen the Saints offense twice already this season. pretty decent price for them as well.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (FD $4.2k/ DK $3.5k)
This is the easy choice this week, and that’s OK. play them with confidence.
NFL DFS Divisional Round Saturday Football Top Stacks
1. Mahomes, Bell, Hill, Kelce (If CEH plays, he’s an option too)
2. Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Sanders
Contrarian Stack: Mayfield, Chubb, Landry, Hooper
Just as a note of interest. It looks like DraftKings has the full weekend slate as their main slate, and FanDuel has each day as their main slate. You can use this article along with Saturday’s article to make a full weekend lineup. Good luck!