NFL DFS Wild Card Sunday Football Strategy
When attacking a small NFL DFS slate some strategies go out the window. Usually matching up a defense going against offensive players is a big no. However, having 1-3 players going against your defense even your quarterback is no big deal here since we don’t really have much to work with. Stacking a quarterback with a target or two and even running it back is a good option on some slates. Having a heavy game stack can make you different in a small slate. The last thing to think about is don’t really pay attention to salary. Sometimes there will be a ton of money left over but if you like your plays don’t force a high price player just because you can. Remember to utilize the FD OPTO and DK OPTO.
Ravens @ Titans: O/U 54.5 Ravens -3
Bears @ Saints: O/U 47.5 Saints -10
Browns @ Steelers: O/U 47.5 Steelers -6
(Totals & Spreads are as of 1/8/2021. These could change by game time, so please check these prior to lineup lock.)
NFL DFS Quarterback
1. Drew Brees (FD $7.8k/ DK $5.7k)
Brees is the lowest I’m paying for at QB this week on either site, and I think he’s going to score you pretty close the most points giving you great value against the Bears. Since coming back from injury week 15, he’s thrown for 746 yards and 6 TDs, showing very little rust. The Bears defense is easier to pass against than run on, so he should be able to capitalize.
2. Ben Roethlisberger (FD $7.5k/ DK $6.1k)
Big Ben took week 17 off, and it was much needed as he’s had some pretty bad weeks before his rest. He gets to play the Browns again, which is a team rematch from last week, but should be a totally different game. Roethlisberger has been here before and more than likely will come out firing the ball. This could be an easy game for Pittsburg to win.
3. Lamar Jackson (FD $9.1k/ DK $7.8k)
Lamar is the highest priced QB on the slate this week, by a lot, and should put up great numbers against the Titans. This is a big rivalry in the playoffs, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of points in this one, just like Vegas is projecting. The Titans have been fading defensively and Lamar should have his way with them.
- I like Tannehill, but would rather spend down for Brees if not playing Lamar
NFL DFS Running Back
1. Nick Chubb (FD $7.7k/ DK $6.7k)
Chubb got to see the Steelers last week, and rushed for 108 yards with a TD. Unfortunately he hasn’t seen more than 15 touches out of the backfield in the last 3 weeks. I think the browns know that they will have to lean on Chubb if they want to keep the game at their pace and allow him to carry the team to a win. He should see an increase in touches in this one.
2. JK Dobbins (FD $6.8k/ DK $6.6k)
Dobbins has been great the last half of the season with scoring TDs in every one of his last 6 games. He’s got to be considered the lead back in Baltimore, and though Lamar takes some of his touches, Dobbins is making the most out of the ones he is seeing.
3. Alvin Kamara (FD $9.0k/ DK $8.5k)
Kamara should be back this Sunday, and since he had last week off, should be plenty rested after his monster week 16. Back in week 8, Kamara had 163 total yards with 9 receptions against the Bears. If for some reason Kamara isn’t removed from the COVID list, Latavius Murray ran all over Chicago last season as well. Payton will have a game plan for him in case Kamara is inactive.
- You may be saying to yourself, “No Derrick Henry?” and I had a hard time not putting him here. He should be an obvious play. My concern is that the Titans are not strangers to abandoning the run a bit when they fall behind.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver
1. Michael Thomas (FD $6.8k/ DK $6.3k)
How could you not play Michael Thomas at this price? Thomas has had a ton of time to rest his injury and is on track to play this game. I expect him to be extremely high owned and may be one of those plays where you have to own him or fall behind. The Bears are having some injury issues of their own in the backfield, Making this a great opportunity for Thomas to go off.
2. Diontae Johnson (FD $7.0k/ DK $6.2k)
Johnson has been a target machine the last part of the season with 90 targets in the last 8 games. That’s a huge target rate and if he had that rate over the season he would have easily led the league in targets. With Ben now rested, we should see another week of high targets, and give Johnson the opportunity to show that he’s the #1WR in Pittsburgh. The Browns are suspect at defending the pass, and since they only played last week, we could see them be picked apart quite a bit.
3. Allen Robinson (FD $7.2k/ DK $6.5k)
Robinson has been one of my favorite WR plays this season and that doesn’t change this week. Even with the matchup he has with Marshawn Lattimore, Robinson should be able to be productive. He caught every target with Lattimore covering earlier this season, and it won’t surprise me to see Robinson targeted a ton in this one with he injuries the Bears have on offense.
4. Marquise Brown (FD $6.3k/ DK $5.4k)
Brown has been a red zone target for Lamar Jackson this season, and that became quite evident in the second half where he scored 6 TDs in 6 games. Hollywood has a great matchup in this contest against the Titans who will have a little trouble covering him with Adoree’ Jackson who has allowed all but one target to be caught in the last 3 weeks since he returned to the starting lineup.
- I think you can pair Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson this week with Ben to make a nice stack. You could even play Juju as a contrarian play since more people with look toward Dionte in this one.
NFL DFS Tight End
1. Mark Andrews (FD $7.0k/ DK $5.2k)
Andrews is the TE play this Sunday, and rightfully so. He has the highest ceiling out of all of the TEs on the slate, and should have the most opportunities to make an impact from the position. He’s averaged over 5 receptions the last 6 games, and while he hasn’t scored as many TDs as we have come to expect from him, he’s easily the most dependable receiver in Baltimore.
2. Eric Ebron (FD $5.5k/ DK $3.7k)
If you can’t afford Andrews this week, I think you have to look toward Ebron. He’s seen a down tick in targets the last couple weeks but that goes along with Ben’s downturn as well. Back in week 16 when Ben took over the game, Ebron was targeted 5 times and was a big part of the turn around for the Steelers.
NFL DFS Defense
Pittsburg Steelers (FD $4.8k/ DK $3.6k)
I love the idea of a team playing against a team they played the week before. I also love that the Steelers rested starters in that game. This could be a total domination for Pittsburgh and should be the obvious defensive choice this Sunday.
New Orleans Saints (FD $4.6k/ DK $3.8k)
The Bears have had struggles this season putting points up, and the Saints have one of the better defenses this season. They should be able to keep Montgomery contained and with the other injuries on the Bears WR corps, we could see a game that is more lopsided than anyone anticipates.
NFL DFS Saturday Football Top Stacks
1. Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Cook
2. Roethlisberger, Diontae, Juju, Ebron
Contrarian Stack: Tannehill, Henry, Brown, Davis
You can use this article along with the NFL DFS Wildcard Saturday article posted yesterday if you plan on playing the fill slate this weekend. Good luck!