** The Clean Sheet is an UCL Article directly relating to 10/21 UCL DraftKings and FanDuel plays. We analyze the best plays on both sites and attempt to get an edge on the field at large. Tournament plays are listed up top and cash plays are listed on the bottom. Be sure to be on the lookout for the Clean Sheet moving forward, as well as other articles at Top Flight.**
10/21 UCL Breakdown
We are in for the second half of Champion’s League Group Stage Matchweek 1/6 with another six game slate beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. Unlike yesterday’s slate where we had a huge -1430 favorite in Barcelona, today’s games are a bit more balanced.
Manchester City is the biggest favorite at -400, followed by Atalanta at -190, Bayern Munich at -185, Inter Milan at -170, and Liverpool at -150. The totals are about the same with the Man City game, Atalanta’s and Liverpool’s, all around even money for over 3.5 goals. Bayern Munich and Inter Milan both have game totals a bit lower, closer to 2.5.
I would generally avoid the Olympiacos and Marseille game, which shouldn’t be too hard on this slate. The under 2.5 goal total is -150 and this are two solid defensive teams without stellar attacks.
Two big exceptions are Dmitri Payet who is underpriced on both sites and Mattias Valbuena, who is very expensive on DraftKings but affordable on FanDuel. Those two are ballers, take all the set pieces, etc.
Manchester City -400
Turning to the biggest favorite Manchester City, Kevin De Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus remain out but striker Sergio Aguero made his return over the weekend and received the start. I would expect him to play a bit deeper this time around, likely going at least 75 minutes, with the highest goal scoring odds on the slate at -220.
Against Arsenal, the Man City attack consisted of Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez, with Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva operating behind them. I would expect a similar formation and right now, that is what is projected. Aguero, Sterling, and Mahrez are the priorities with Phil Foden a decent play and Bernardo Silva a bit more of a large field flyer.
If looking to fade Man City or only use a piece and then pair with players from other games, there are certainly some suitable pivots. I’d start with Atalanta. Last year’s Champion’s League Cinderella team could not find a way to hold on against PSG in the final minutes of their game in the Round of Eight. However, it was still a good season for them. This team scores lots of goals and can also give them up, making them very DFS friendly.
High flying forward Joseph Illicic just recently returned from a combination of an ankle injury and mental health issues. Similar to Aguero, upon his return he played around 63 minutes and should be good to go for this game. FanDuel does not have him projected in, but I’d think he probably makes another start.
Aside from Illicic this offense is run by creative midfielder Alejandro Gomez and striker Duvan Zapata. If he is out, they are even important. If Illicic is unavaliable, we can expect them to be joined by Luis Murriel, who would be a fringe tournament play or part of a stack with Gomez and/or Zupata.
I love Gomez on DraftKings which rewards his skill set, so he will be a big piece of my lineups there.
Best of the Rest
Bayern Munich -185
It’s not often Bayern Munich, head and shoulders the best team in club soccer, gets ignored. Robert Lewandowski is still -162 to score, giving him the second highest goal scoring odds on the slate. This is a tough matchup in terms of scoring output against Atletico Madrid, who are content to sit back and solely play offense on the counter attack.
However, Serge Gnabry has contracted coronavirus and he will be out. The Bayern attack should be rounded out by Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman and new transfer addition from Juventus, Douglas Costa.
The player who interests me most is Joshua Kimmich on DraftKings specifically. His $6,700 price tag is very fair for the set piece taker on the third biggest favorite. However, he is awaiting the birth of his child and a game time decision.
Inter Milan -150
On FanDuel, I’d look at the strikers Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez. They are the strong point of this team and far and away it’s most likely goal scorers.
Beyond that, either Stefano Sensi or Christian Eriksen makes for a fine DraftKings play. Whichever is in should serve as the attacking midfielder and take the majority of set pieces. However, this game has a lower total than others so not the ideal stack situation. If stacking Sensi/Eriksen with the forwards would be your three man.
Liverpool – 150
Personally, it seems like Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane are overpriced on FanDuel. If you want to go there, they get a bit of a price dip on DraftKings.
However, I love Trent Alexander Arnold and Andy Robertson on DraftKings. They are getting expensive on EPL slates so it’s nice to get a slight discount here. The wingback combination is definitely a huge strength of this team.
10/21 UCL Forwards
High – Sergio Aguero, Robert Lewandowski, Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Mohammed Salah
Mid – Duvan Zapata, Romelu Lukaku, Lautaro Martinez, Thomas Muller, Sadio Mane
Low – Douglas Costa, Luis Suarez
High – Sergio Aguero, Robert Lewandowski, Joseph Illicic, Raheem Sterling, Alejandro Gomez, Romelu Lukaku
Mid- Riyad Mahrez, Duvan Zapata, Lautaro Martinez, Mattias Valbuena, Dmitri Payet
Low – Luis Murriel, Douglas Costa, Ilkay Gundogan, Stefano Sensi
It is just a lot easier to build on FanDuel. Ideally on DraftKings, Joshua Kimmich is in and we can build around him and Gomez, leaving us money at forward. On DraftKings you will have to pick and choose and may have to live in the mid range at forward.
10/21 UCL Midfielders
High- Mattias Valbuena
Mid- Joshua Kimmich, Alejandro Gomez, Dmitri Payet
Low- Yannick Carrasco “if starting”, Leon Goretzka, Ilkay Gundogan
FanDuel – Addressed above, as on FanDuel, forwards and midfielders are combined.
If you had the funds you can pay up for Valbuena to be contrarian. However, with Kimmich, Gomez, and Payet we are getting great value as all three are underpriced.
High- Trent Alexander Arnold, Andy Robertson
Mid- Robin Gosens
Low- Benjamin Pavard
High – Trent Alexander Arnold/Andy Robertson
Mid- Jose Holebas
Low- Erik Sviatchenko, Joel Andersson, Rafinha
On DraftKings, as noted above, I want the Liverpool wingbacks. You can just play them both or roll Gosens or Pavard in the utility spot if going for a three defender setup.
On FanDuel, if the studs fit your build go for it, but you can also just slum it with cheap defenders. Preference goes to anyone playing centrally as it seems Sviatechenko will be. You can also try to correlate with your goalie for clean sheets.
High – Ederson
Mid – Jose Sa
Low- Yan Sommer
Low- Marco Sportiello $5
On DraftKings we have clear tiers. If you can get up to Ederson, do it.
FanDuel, it is hard to get around Sportiello. He is the goalie for the second biggest favorite on the slate and only $5. While Atalanta plays faced past and gives up a decent amount of goals, their opponent tomorrow is no offensive dynamo. He should be super chalky.
10/21 UCL Cash Plays
DraftKings – Joshua Kimmich “if starting”, Alejandro Gomez, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson, Robin Gosens, maybe Dmitri Payet
FanDuel – Marco Sportiello, Sergio Aguero, Robert Lewandowski