All Out Blitz NFL DFS Week 6 FD GPP Advice
NFL DFS has grown to be quite annoying over the years. With the hundred of tout sites out there chalk is bigger than ever. Through the years fading chalk was usually my go to because that’s what drives you up the Fanduel leaderboards. Touts and players are becoming much smarter so fading all the chalk isn’t necessarily the best play. We do still need to fade some from time to time but stacking and contrarian builds are becoming winning strategies. I love using Vegas odds, as does everyone else, building my Fanduel lineups. One portion of Vegas odds that not every looks at are prop bets to see where Vegas has players stats. I like using DK Sportsbook to check player prop bets. See below for some important NFL DFS strategies and terms.
NFL DFS Strategy and Terms
- Core Plays- Guys I would lock in if playing one lineup. Just remember my one lineup approach might be different than yours as I’m looking to go for broke all the time
- Flex will 90% of the time be a RB—-I might adjust this year and try some new things early on
- Stacks will now be stacking 2 players to go along with my QB maybe three at times.
- My ranks take a lot into consideration…value, lineup construction, ownership…etc
- Chalk means highly owned player
Topflight NFL DFS Tools
Week 6 NFL DFS Overview
Week 6 Core—-remember, this is if I were playing 1-2 lineups
Stafford, Henry, Golladay, Hock, Pats
Week 6 Top Stacks
- Stafford, Golladay, Hock
- Cousins, Thielen, Jefferson
- Lamar, Andrews, Brown
- Fitz, Parker, Williams (or Gesicki)
- Arod, Adams, Tonyan
There doesn’t to be any crazy chalk here this week with no player above 15%. What we do have though are a lot of cheapies in great spots. Its really hard to pass up these guys tbh. I really like quite a few QB’s this week but will narrow down for sure. This really is a great week for mid priced QB’s so I will for sure include some more expensive guys in my top 5. This will allow me to make some unique lineups. I also plan on running a 150 script and I will list the QB’s I’m including in that below.
Chalk- (From highest)- Stafford, Fitz, Tannehill, Watson
FD QB Ranks
- Cousins- I’m going to make a stand and go a little different here with my fav QB (not by a whole lot). I feel like this is a keep it simple stupid play. Everyone under the sun neglected Gurley in a prime matchup so why make the same mistake twice. The Falcons are horrendous against the pass (actually the worst) so why not exploit that. The Vikings have the highest implied total on the slate as well. I do think this game stays close and potentially high scoring from both teams which helps the Vikings script here. I know the Vikes dont pass that much but feel as though they will have to this week. Stack with Thielen, Jefferson, and Mattison
- Stafford- The Jags pass d is really not good as the Lions 28+ implied point total shows. The Lions are middle of the pack in passing play % but like the Vikes they will need to pass in this game. The Jags are allowing a league worst comp% and yds/att against which bodes well for Stafford and the crew in what should be a tight high scoring affair. Stack with Golladay, Hock, and Jones
- Fitzmagic- The Jets are an absolute cluster fuck right and I would play Chris Rothar if he was throwing against them. Fitzy has been really solid over the last 4 games in terms of fantasy scoring 23+ in each. Stack with Parker, Williams, Gesicki
- Lamar- I really think this is the perfect week to play a lower owned Lamar. We have a lot of value at RB this week and we all know Lamar has a ceiling like no other. He has been hesitant this year to run but I feel he will have to in this matchup. If he does run and gets to that second level he’ll get a JV LB corps to run on. Could be a big day on the ground for Lamar. Stack with Andrews, Brown
- Arod- This is a very expensive play especially when you stack with Adams but one that should pay off. Not many people on this game which I think is a mistake as it has serious potential to be a shootout. The Bucs are pretty vulnerable to the pass and Arod is on a mission this year it seems. Stack with Adams, Tonyan, Jones
Off the Wall play
Matt Ryan- The Vikings def really isnt anything to write home about, in fact they’re quite terrible. I will certainly have a run back stack with Matty Ice since I like Cousins a good bit. Stack with Ridley, Jones
QB’s also in my script
Watson, Tannehill, Minshew, Ben, Cam, Wentz, Brady—-Will have no more than 10% of any of these guys.
So we have some major major chalk that can certainly bust. Monty and Mattison worry me. We ignored Gurley against the Panthers last week which was a mistake (although I did list him as an off the wall play). People will now be chasing that with Monty this week. I am concerned because the Bears really haven’t shown a commitment to the run game as Monty as seen over 15 carries once this year. He has been involved in the pass game which makes me worry to not play him.
GPP Chalk Fade
Mattison will be upwards of 40% and if he were cheaper it would make it harder to fade. The Falcons are the 10th best team in the league for YPC but 10th worst in FDP a game to RB. The Falcons get pretty beat up by RB through the air. He is capable of catching balls through the air but Mattison is mostly a pounder and doesn’t have that speed for the passing game. I think Mike Boone steals some third down passing opportunities. Certainly a scary fade but I’ll make my stand on Mattison this week and be very underweight.
Chalk(20% or higher)- Mattison, Henry, Davis, Montgomery, Robinson
FD RB Ranks
- Henry- Will be super popular and with the value we have at RB this week we can fit him easily. The Hou run D is atrocious and the Titans are very much committed to getting Henry his carries.
- Gaskin- I’m really surprised at his low ownership this week. The Jets allow the 10th most scrimmage yards per game to the RB and with Howard out of the mix it appears to be Gaskins show. They have been giving him decent carries and he ranks 9th in routes run by RB’s and has been the 4th most targeted RB.
- Monty- I have my concerns that I stated above but Car is so bad. Panthers have allowed the 4th most scrimm yds, 6th most YPC, and been the 3rd most target team by RB through the air. With Nick Foles taking over we have seen Montys targets increase each game. He runs the 7th most routes by a RB in the league already and with Foles his targets should increase. I am still concerned with the amount of carries he gets but the targets should offset that.
- Aaron Jones- This is guy is a TD machine. The Bucs run d is very stout but they are vulnerable through the air. I believe the return of Adams helps Jones quite a bit in the pass game this week. The packers have a pretty high total in a close game so they will need to lean on Jones as well as Adams.
- Ronald Jones- A guy that no one will play who happens to be trending very much up. We obvioulsy have to keep an eye on Fournettes status because that could hinder Jones a bit. The Packers allow the 7th most scrimm yds/g to RB, 9th most YPC, 4th most rec/g to RB, and the most rec yds/g to RB. To be fair a shit ton of that came from Kamara but looking through their games they have bled points to RB in all sorts of ways. Jones has been averaging 25 ToT (carries and targets) over the last two games. The return of Godwin could limit him but it could also open things up for him.
- Mike Davis- super chalk which is why I have him lower but we can’t not play this guy. He is essentially matchup proof with the amount of targets he is seeing. Chicagos run d is decent but nothing really special and actually just let Ronald Jones run for over a 100. The volume us just too much here to not play him.
- James Robinson- I was really going back and forth between Robinson and Taylor. I think Taylor is a fine play as he should run all over that Cincy def but Robinson has a real chance to explode here this week. The Lions run d is severly bad allowing 190 scrimm yards to RB. Tied with the Titan for the highest YPC against. My worry is the Jags pass happy offense this year which should also have success. Like I said it was between Robinson and Taylor but between salary, pace of play, and game total I have to lean towards Robinson.
Off the wall play
Perine- With no Bell around it looks as though Perine should see a good amount of work. The Dolphins are a good matchup for him. He is no stranger to catching the ball out of the backfield as he caught 40 balls last year in college. He is def an off the wall play for FD and I dont want to speak out of term but he might make for a more interesting DK play.
We have some pretty big chalk with Theilen, Brown, and Adams. I’m def a little skeptical of Brown. As always I will be full stacking so check above with in the QB’s to see who I’m stacking. This section will be comprised of my fill in WR. I like a TON of WR this week. I will try to narrow it down but I will be listing more than usual. Also look at the guys I have stacked above with my QB plays and feel free to sprinkle them in as well. If I dont list them here that simple means I prefer to stack them.
Chalk 20% and above- Thielen, Brown, Adams, Golladay, Claypool, Ridley
FD WR Ranks
- Allen Robinson- Thielen is my #1 reciever this week but I have Robinson #1 merely for ownerhsip. He should see much less ownership and cost $400 less. We really cant ignore his target share since Foles took over. The other thing that makes him an interesting pivot is Chicago is top 4 in pass % while the Vikings are bottom 4. A guy in this heavy of a pass offense and is 5th in the league in target share is easy
- Thielen/Jefferson- Yes still love this Minny passing attack against this horrendous secondary. Thielen the obvious #1 but dont forget to sprinkle in some Jefferson. I know the Vikes are towards the bottom in pass % but Thielen leads the league in target share.
- Crowder- The guy is just way to cheap and underowned. We simply cannot ignore a guy who will be in a positive game script against a bad pass d who see’s one of the highest target shares in the league.
- Claypool- He’s coming just under 20% which surprises me a bit. For his price in a positive matchup he makes for a nice fit in lineups. Dont be afraid to go with Juju as well. The Steelers will run the rock but Cle run d has been very good this year so they will have to resort to the pass.
- OBJ- Again another team that runs the shit out of the ball but like their opponent will be forced to pass the ball. The Steeler will bleed pts to WR (See Fulgham last week). OBJ is the target monster here with a 27% target share.
- Adams- Price and ownership have him ranked lower but man do I like him a ton this week. I’m not sure how much I’m going to play him without Rodgers but if you can fit him he’s a nice play this week. Tampas D funnels everything to the pass and with a 28% target share Adams is prime for a big day.
- Ridley- The Vikes pass d is certainly vulnerable and the Falcons should be playing from behind so I see Ridley seeing mass opportunities this week.
- Fulgham- So in full transparency I couldnt decide if I was going to flop Fulgham with Claypool in the rankings. If Claypool was higher owned I may have. I believe that Claypool/Juju have the better matchup and better offense. Fulgham has clealry turned into Wentz fav target and in an offense that passes the ball a ton thats a great thing. The volume he should see for his price is almost unmatched on the slate. Script will be in his favor for sure as the Eagles will likely be behind.
- Shenault- This is a great matchup for the Jags passing game that just so happens to pass at the highest clip in the NFL. If Chark is out Shenault becomes a premium play. I would ignore the other WR but Shenault is the most talented IMO.
- Godwin/Evans- These guys should be higher but we really haven’t seen the two of them in action together that much with Brady. We still dont know which guy he really favors so picking between the two is extremely tough. I do think one of these guys goe off but who is the big question.
Off the wall play–Byrd- His 95%+ offensive snap count is tops on the team over their last two games. He is outsnapping Harry by a pretty large margin. Its deep gpp type play against a vulnerable Broncos D.
Jonnu and Andrews should see upwards of 20% ownership. I’m a little hesitant on Jonnu because we do have Humphries coming back and he should steal some targets away from him. The Texans also arent terrible against the TE. I will have some of him but will look to pivot to a lower owned Hock in that spot.
Chalk above 10%- Jonnu, Andrews, Gesicki, Engram
FD TE Ranks
- Andrews- The Eagles are bad bad bad to the TE. Their LB core is terrible and when the Ravens get in the RZ they will surely look Andrews way. I can def see another one of his patented 60 yd 2 TD days.
- Hock- The Jags are amongst the worst to TE. Hock hasnt seen much volume but these numbers the Jags allow make him a promising play. The Jags are allowing a league high 12.5 YPT and 16 YPR. Hock may not see much but he should be able to make the most of what he gets.
- Engram- The Was Def actaully hasn’t been that bad this year. They have been giving it up to the TE though. The Giants have to get Engram more involved if they want to compete. I think this is a get right game for him as he’s the path to victory.
- Jonnu- I do think Humphries eats into his targets but he will still his. He should end up being the highest owned TE and because of that I have him ranked lower. Matchup is blah and as far as TE go theres really only a coulple who have safe floors and he’s not one of them.
Off the wall play- Burton- With no Cox in the lineup it will open up more playing time for Burton. He only saw 45% of the snaps last week but managed to get 6 targets so Rivers is def looking his way. More snaps should make him see more targets.
We dont really have any low dollar pay down DST that we can realistically play. I mean we could take a stab at one and hope to get lucky because you never know what can happen but its just luck at that point. Lets focus on some mid range and pay ups.
Chalk-Above 10%- Colts, Ravens, Pats, Dolphins
FD DST Ranks
- Dolphins- The Jets are pretty bad right now and cant seem to bury the ball in the endzone.
- Pats- Denver is just missing too many pieces now with Gordon out. Lock is coming back but that wont be enough to stop the Pats from holding them down.
- Colts- I hate paying all the way up but they should be able to get some pressure and sacks against the most sacked QB in the league.
- Ravens- You just never know what to expect with the Eagles offense. The Ravens know how to create turnoevers and Wentz has had a knack for turning it over this year
Off the wall play-Cincy- The Colts offense is just so blah. The cincy DST isnt really good but worthy of a punt.
As always be sure to backup your NFL DFS GPP contest in cash games to help control your bankroll. Jeff Talbot writes a great cash game article here Cash Game Picks. NFL DFS is can be frustrating at times and sometimes the right plays just don’t work out. As long as we go by solid data and pick plays that make sense we will end up profitable year over year.