NFL DFS: The Triple T – DraftKings NFL Top Plays
Hey flight crew! Some of you may know me from my Triple T for baseball and I’ve decided to roll it over for the NFL DFS season for DraftKings! I am tired of seeing NFL DFS articles out there that list 15 players at each position so this article hopes to narrow it down as much as possible for you. How I am going to approach the Triple T for NFL DFS is a little different from baseball – I am still going to list three options at each position, but I will try my best to make one a higher-priced option, a middle tier-priced option, and a low tier-priced option. Please note: These are NOT the only NFL DFS players I like, just my favorites within each tier for the week. *NOTE: This is a GPP-centric article so I am going to focus on tournament plays. Sure, I will be listing and playing some chalk, but one of the only advantages we have left as NFL DFS players is leverage and ownership and I try to balance that with chalk.
**Any later changes will be made in red so be sure to check back before lock in case there are any changes (though I don’t expect there to be)
Be sure to check out our NFL DFS Draftkings optimizer!
Boom-or-Bust Punt – Jones
Notes: Okay, so I am just going to start off by apologizing – I sliced my finger open and had to get stitches so I not going to be able to type a ton of analysis out tonight. With that said, I like way too many quarterbacks this week! I didn’t list Jackson because I think he goes without saying against Cincinnati and I left off Bridgewater because I think that is a fairly popular play that doesn’t need a ton of explanation (Atlanta defense). What I will say about Bridgewater leads me to Matt Ryan – if I am at Teddy’s $5900 salary, I would just assume pay the couple hundred more and get the better quarterback in Matt Ryan. I do like both guys and may have a share of both guys but if just choosing one, I will side with Ryan. I like Ryan’s connection with Ridley and I can also utilize a minimum priced Zaccheaus with him as well if Julio is out, making the stack very cheap. Another reason I side with Ryan is because I like Mike Davis too much. While you can pair a quarterback with his running back, it isn’t a strategy I employ often and since Davis is heavily involved in the passing game, I can use him to run back against my Ryan stack AND use his pass-catching to get a little exposure to Teddy that way. As I said, I my have shares of both guys as Atlanta is allowing the highest passer rating in the league and that is something we just can’t ignore.
A couple of under the radar stacks I’m looking at are Arizona (Murray) and Houston (Watson). I’m seeing a lot of Dallas out there, KC and even Carolina and Giants but not a ton of chatter about Arizona. Arizona gets the Jets who haven’t allowed a ton of passing yards per game but rank in the bottom third in the league in sack rate, yards allowed per pass attempt, and opponent completion percentage among many others. They just haven’t allowed a ton of volume because they’ve faced Buffalo, Denver, Indy, and SF – not exactly high octane passing attacks outside of Buffalo and in that case, Allen put up 312 with two TDs and ran for another 50 and a score. Murray and DHop both should be in single digits and always have incredibly high, slate-breaking upside. What I like about this stack is that we kind of KNOW where Murray’s targets are going – Hopkins, where as with other QBs, the stack pieces are a tad tougher to pin down outside of a couple. We always have to grapple with question like, will it be a Kelce week or a Hill week? Will it be a Cooper week, a Lamb week, or a Gallup/Schultz vulture week? In Arizona, if Murray has a great passing game, it’s almost a sure bet that Hopkins is also having a good week. It may also be a little bit of leverage if people are still running out Drake and he doesn’t do much and Arizona passing game is what explodes. It’s an expensive stack and I’d reserve it only for tourneys but I do like it as a low-owned, high-upside stack. Watson is in the same boat – The Jags are allowing the 4th highest passer rating, have the 4th lowest sack percentage, and are allowing the highest completion percentage – a whopping 76% – to their opponents. You can bet the Texans are going to want to stick it to Bill O’Brien this week so don’t be surprised to see this team play with a fire that we haven’t seen in a while. This could be a ceiling game for Watson.
Imagine the best quarterback in the league playing in one of the best offenses and having the highest implied total on the slate and being projected to come in low owned. Listen, I know Mahomes is pricy but come on…we are not showing a ton of ownership on him against a Vegas defense that gets virtually zero pressure against quarterbacks and ranks toward the bottom in many categories against opposing passing games. I think he is coming in low because everyone is focusing on a cheaper Edwards-Helaire as their exposure to this offense but there is enough value around the board to where we can get away with a Pat-Hill stack or a Pat-Kelce stack. Heck, I am not even opposed to the Pat-Edwards Helaire stack! Regardless of your stack preference here, Mahomes always carries the highest ceiling on the slate and you’ll be able to get him at an ownershio discount as everyone chases Daniel Jones, Dak, and Teddy.
I feel I should mention Jones but I don’t want to spend a ton of time on him. I think he sees a decent amount of ownership as people chase the Dallas atrocious defense narrative, but does he warrant it? I mean at this point, I think even Ryan Leaf would warrant a share against this defense. I think his price is such that if we are at Daniel Jones, we should just find the money for Teddy or Ryan, but I am not opposed to a Jones lineup. I don’t think he is as bad as he has shown thus far – the G-Men have just faced some brutal defenses to start the year and he is a guy that we have seen toss four and five TDs in a game a few times last season. If you are playing a bunch of lineups I would recommend grabbing a share but if you are just playing one or two, I would rather just get up to Teddy for $500 more. If I really am salivating for Giants exposure, I will just get it through Slayton or Engram and call it a day.
Boom-or-Bust: D Johnson/Gibson
Notes: Elliott and Mike Davis should be the two most popular NFL DFS backs this week and rightfully so. They both have great matchups and are the unquestioned lead backs for their teams. I really do want to fade Zeke but DK is making it very hard at that paltry $7.8 tag. This guy runs the most routes per game of any RB and leads all backs in carries inside the ten yard line. He really is a tough fade and I think we have to eat it in cash, but I do think with the emergence of the passing game being one of the best in the league and all the other good backs cheaper than him, he isn’t as scary a fade as he once was. Dallas has been playing from behind all season so Elliott has racked up a bunch of catches in the process. If you think they get up in this game, you have to think that those catches and targets aren’t needed and turn into carries. Where I am going with this is that I don’t think you see a score that far off from what he has been producing so far this season. Now with that said, he could very well go out and score three TDs and then all bets are off. I think he is a great play but not something you desperately need to force in.
I didn’t list James Robinson but I do like him. He gets a porous Texans defense and seems to be gaining steam as the week goes on but I am just lukewarm on him. I wish I could do a live video so that you could read my emotions when discussing this play but I will try and put it into words. I don’t think he does bad, but I definitely do see a path to him crapping on people’s heads. Robinson only has TWO carries inside the ten and is averaging only 1.5 touches per game inside the red zone, both extremely low numbers among full time running backs. He also runs just 14 routes per game which isn’t a high number. On the flipside, he does average 6 yards per touch which is one of the highest numbers among full time backs. I just worry how sustainable that production is on such a bad team and with such paltry red zone numbers. The Texans are bleeding points to opposing running games BUT we have to consider who they have played. They have played Mahomes/Helaire, Lamar Jackson/Ingram, Dalvin Cook, and James Connor. Those are four of the best backs in the league a few of the best offensive lines in the league. Robinson and the Jags are a step down from them. Again, I could be reading way too much into what seems like an easy play in Robinson, but I will tread lightly here. Hunt gets the nod at running back with Chubb on IR and while we should see some D’Ernest Johnson, I do think Hunt gets the lions share of touches here if he is healthy. Hunt is averaing over 4 red zone touches per game and has 6 carries inside the ten and is 6th in the league in total RZ touches and that was WITH Chubb in the mix. I think Johnson gets some action, but Hunt should pay dividends here.
David Johnson has looked awful and the Texans offensive line is literally offensive but someone on the Texans will have a big day and if you are not playing Watson or that passing game, you may want to grab a share of DJ. He is running over 20 routes per game and he is averaging 5 yards per touch which isn’t a bad number. It puts him right around Fournette, Carson, and Helaire territory who are all averaging 5.1 yards per touch and more than Ezekiel Elliott (4.8)! Quite simply, they haven’t been getting him as involved as they should given his efficiency and hopefully that changes on Sunday with O’Brien gone. He is basically doing what Edwards-Helaire has been doing for $1400 less and in just as good a spot – paying down to DJ from CEH could give you a different build than the field without sacrificing anything. Another guy to keep your eye on down there is Jerick McKinnon.
Boom-or-Bust Value: Diontae Johnson, Gage, Slayton, Zaccheus
Notes: As I talked about above with Murray, I think Hopkins goes completely ignored on this slate as his price is kind of prohibitive. If you play Hopkins, you have to resign yourself that you are going to have to pay down at a couple spots, probably defense and TE if I had to guess. I think if people go that high, they go to Ridley but frankly, I don’t think many will have either. There is a lot of good options in the mid range at receiver like Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder to go with guys like Diontae Johnson and people will be filling in with Zaccheaus so I do think those guys at the top go underowned, making it a nice week to go up there in tourneys.
Boom-or-Bust Punts – Engram/Herndon
Low – Browns
Favorite game to target? Atl/Car, Hou/Jax
Least Favorite game to target? Wash
Favorite “contrarian” RB? Todd Gurley or James Connor
Favorite “contrarian” wide receiver? Hopkins or Crowder
Favorite “contrarian” TE? Herndon, Ertz
Player most afraid of fading? Elliott
Remember that is imperative to check Vegas odds and hedge your NFL DFS tournaments with cash games to be as profitable as you can be and also to minimize any losses. Good luck!