The Triple T: MLB DFS GPP And Cash Picks

MLB DFS Pitcher Picks

The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three

As many of you know, MLB DFS is all about stacking so it only makes sense to focus on that in this article. I will list my favorite plays within each stack to make it easier to build a lineup from the recommendations. There may be more guys on team that can be used and salary will certainly dictate that, but the guys I list are my favorites and can be mixed and matched. When we “stack”, that traditionally means that we play 3-5 guys from a particular team so that we can have exposure among multiple players throughout that lineup of the runs generated. Stacking could come in the form of a 5-3 stack (five players from one team and 3 from another), a 4-4, or even a 5-2-1 or 4-3-1.

We should note that this MLB DFS season will play MUCH different then previous seasons as Covid-19 has made for an abbreviated year which will change how starting  pitchers are used, how bullpens are utilized, how lineups and substitutions are managed, as well as the virus itself possibly coming into play and forcing positive tests to quarantine. We have also had an extremely long layoff since last season and just as we build a solid data sample to work with, the “regular season” will pretty much be over! Regardless, I am just happy to have the sport back and it should be a lot of fun. Tread lightly for the first couple weeks as we see how things are shaking out!

Use these MLB plays along with your own research! Remember, this is a GPP-style article (outside of the cash cores) so I take some more chances than others. The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU. Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible MLB DFS  matchup tool! 

Any changes or edits will be marked in Red – check back before lock! 

 

Top Three Pitchers

 

Pitcher (no order):

Burnes
Lynn
Anderson

Boom-or-Bust: Bubic/Javier/Perez (Perez is more on the huge flyer side of things)

Notes: We have a short slate tonight and one where pitching seems pretty straight-forward. Burnes leads the way on FD and while the $10.6k price may give you sticker shock for a name that isn’t really a household one, it is justified. You can make the argument that this guy should finish in the top-three in the Cy Young voting and maybe even be considered to win it. His whopping 37% strikeout rate is by far the best on the slate and one of the best in the league and he doesn’t discriminate to either hand, sporting that same number to both hands. You shouldn’t overthink this one – I won’t be.

A guy who I think may be popular on DK is Javier and I am proceeding with caution on him. Surface numbers look decent, but he has a lot of troubling metrics, particularly to lefties. Go to our matchups page and check out his numbers to lefties against his numbers to righties – pretty stark difference and he is slated to face six lefties tonight. His home/road splits are also eye-popping as he is allowing an ERA almost three points higher on the road and a HR/9 of 2.75 on the road compared to just 1.24 at home. On top of that, this guy is allowing the highest launch angle (25 degrees) and highest flyball rate on the slate (53%). With all of that said, he gets the Rangers tonight who have been absolutely positively dreadful this season to pitchers of both hands so he could very well have a decent game. I will just caution you to tread carefully with him is all. I felt like I had to throw Perez in there because the dude is not allowing really any homers (.6 HR/9) and is getting an Orioles team that is rolling out only three guys with an ISO over .133 to lefties. Not a lot of power against a guy that doesn’t allow a ton of power.

Lynn could also be a popular option tonight though I think people still might be scared of playing pitchers against Houston. He has elite home splits, pitching to a 1.88 ERA in his friendly confines and a 3.31 number away from home and allowing a wOBA .20 points higher on the road. The matchup isn’t as terrible as people think as Houston ranks 20th in wOBA to righties this season, but they still are not striking out a ton so I don’t know how much Lynn I will have. On FD, I don’t think I will stray anywhere else from Burnes and on DK, I will eat the Burnes chalk and mix and match my SP2’s.

 

Top MLB Team Stacks (both sites, no order)

– I am going to list my preferred player stack, but these aren’t the only guys I would use as there may be some others that offer us salary relief. 

– Dodgers (Betts/Seager/Turner/Bellinger/Smith/Taylor) – Not a lot of options tonight so the Dodgers get thrust to the top though if it were a normal slate, I might stray from them. However, tonight we have a six-gamer so I will probably end up getting here. Fiers isn’t a guy I am normally running to attack because while he isn’t good, he isn’t exactly a dumpster fire either. His flyball rates are high but he doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact which translates to modest HR rates (1.2 to lefties for example – nothing whopping) and keeps the ball in the air which is good for limiting hits and runners. They should be popular so to get a little different tonight, mix in some of the lower owned pieces like Taylor or Smith (two righties sporting over a .400 wOBA to righties this year.

Red Sox (Martinez/Devers/Boagaerts/Verdugo) – This one should be no secret either tonight as they should be among the highest owned. They get Cobb who comes into this one with a huge 10% barrel rate and a high 43% statcast hard hit rate. The Red Sox have let us down numerous times this year so it wouldn’t shock me to see it happpen again but all thing consudered, they should be okay here. My only issue with Cobb is that he doesn’t allow a big flyball rate or launch angle so we may need to rely on BABIP to do the damage tonight. Since it is such a short slate that might be enough to do the trick. The Sox do sport the 6th highest ISO to righties over the last two weeks so they have that going for them. You can include Dalbec if you want just be prepared for him to strikeout alot an carry a floor as low as anyone.

Braves (Freeman/Acuna/Albies/d’Arnaud) 

 

Top Boom-or-Bust Stacks

– Texas (Gallo/Guzman/Odor/Tejada/Dietrich) – I’m going waaay out on a limb with this one so if you don’t want to get crazy with it, maybe stick to just Boston and LAD. If you want to lay your balls on the table, play Texas with me. Javier has been decent as I said above, but when I talked about him above in the pitching section, I also mentioned his bad splits to lefties and his bad splits on the road. Tonight he gets 6-7 lefties on the road so lets roll out a lineup against him. His strikeout rate to lefties is 12% lower than it is to righties, his ISO allowed to them is .235, almost 100 points higher than to righties and his WHIP to lefties is double what it is to righties. Texas has been abysmal this season but to righties, they actually sport the 6th highest hard contact rate – they’re making great contact, they are just getting killed by BABIP (among the lowest in the league). The guys listed above all have ISOs over .296 to righties over the last couple weeks and all have hard contact rates above 38% and flyball rates above 41% to righties this season. I see a small little opening that we can possibly exploit and if Javier is going to be owned tonight, it could give us great leverage as well. What I would recommend doing tonight in this case is playing a Texas stack if you run Javier or a Javier line if you run a Texas stack.

–  Detroit (Goodrum/Cabrera/Candelario/Dixon) – Like the Javier situation above, Bubic could see some decent SP2 ownership tonight on DK and if that is the case, I think I need to have a piece of Detroit for leverage. It isn’t like these guys are scrubs as each of them sport wOBAs over .400 to southpaws this season so the upside is certainly there. Bubic has pitched excellent so far but he is allowing a 40% hard contact rate which is one of the higher numbers on the slate to go with a 35% flyball rate. He doesn’t give up a ton of power and pitches fairly averagely but Detroit does rank in the top ten in ISO to lefties so the potential is there. This is another ‘get crazy’ type stacks.

–  KC (Soler/Mondesi/Merrifield/Perez/Dozier/Franco) – If I didn’t think the Royals were going to be popular, I would be all in on them but unfortunately, I do think they’re going to carry a lot of ownership – probably the third highest stack if I had to guess! I can’t think of many things I would rather do less than play KC as chalk so here we are, relegated to the boom-or-bust section. Last time I faded KC chalk, it blew up in my face so I feel obligated to post them but the matchup MAY be a little worse than anticpated. Fulmer has allowed a lot of runs lately but it has all come in the form of BABIP, as he has allowed just one barrel though his last five starts and a homer in only one of those five. Alexander most likely comes in after him and I know that 2.59 HR/9 is enticing to attack but lets remember that KC is still the worst team to lefties in terms of hard contact and has the 4th lowest flyball rate to them. I will have some of them in cash most likely but in tourneys, I may look to differentiate a little.

 

Top Three One-Off Plays 

– Gyorko, Mil

– Gallo, Tex

– Cabrera, Det

 

Cash Game Foundation

*Since hedging your tourneys with cash games is extremely important in these daily sports like MLB, we have decided to include a cash game (double ups, 50/50’s) section at the bottom of our MLB DFS articles this season. These guys will be my foundation for cash games. I will focus mainly on where I think ownership will be and solid floors more so than who the actual “best” play at the position will be.  Some guys have very high ceilings suited best for GPP while also having low floors not ideal for cash games. It is imperative that we play ownership in cash as we just need to beat half the field in these games rather than finish first. We want to pay close attention to where the field is going so if we have a bust at high ownership it doesn’t bury us.  I love tourneys because they give me a chance to take some risks, but we want to play it safe in double-ups so I use my cash games to maybe eat some chalk that I may not be particularly high on because, again, we want to play ownership in cash.

Check back later in the day by 6:00pm as we get more of an idea of lineups! 

* Per request, I am going to do it a little different today and give a couple options, both a higher dollar guy and lower dollar guy at each spot.

  • Cardinals may be chalky tonight in cash but I am not sold on them so will limit my cash exposure

DraftKings MLB Cash Foundation: 

P: Burnes, Bubic

C: Smith, Perez, or cheap filler (Nottingham)

1B: Bellinger, Freeman, Gyorko

2B: Hiura, Altuve

3B: Turner, Devers

SS:  Bogaerts, Mondesi

OF: Dodgers, Red Sox, Braun, Merrifield, Yelich

Fanduel MLB Cash Foundation:

P: Burnes (should be your guy), Javier

1B: Muncy, Perez

2B: Altuve, Hiura

3B: Devers, Turner

SS: Mondesi, Bogaerts

OF: Dodgers, Red Sox, A Garcia, Merrifield

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup, that weather is okay, and keep an eye on Vegas odds. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

 


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Tim Parker

Tim Parker

Tim is a Co-Founder of Top Flight, and the head of MLB content. Tim is an avid Taylor Swift fan, and often finds himself criticizing Derek Carty on Twitter.

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