The Triple T: MLB DFS GPP And Cash Picks

MLB DFS Pitcher Picks

The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three

As many of you know, MLB DFS is all about stacking so it only makes sense to focus on that in this article. I will list my favorite plays within each stack to make it easier to build a lineup from the recommendations. There may be more guys on team that can be used and salary will certainly dictate that, but the guys I list are my favorites and can be mixed and matched. When we “stack”, that traditionally means that we play 3-5 guys from a particular team so that we can have exposure among multiple players throughout that lineup of the runs generated. Stacking could come in the form of a 5-3 stack (five players from one team and 3 from another), a 4-4, or even a 5-2-1 or 4-3-1.

We should note that this MLB DFS season will play MUCH different then previous seasons as Covid-19 has made for an abbreviated year which will change how starting  pitchers are used, how bullpens are utilized, how lineups and substitutions are managed, as well as the virus itself possibly coming into play and forcing positive tests to quarantine. We have also had an extremely long layoff since last season and just as we build a solid data sample to work with, the “regular season” will pretty much be over! Regardless, I am just happy to have the sport back and it should be a lot of fun. Tread lightly for the first couple weeks as we see how things are shaking out!

Use these MLB plays along with your own research! Remember, this is a GPP-style article (outside of the cash cores) so I take some more chances than others. The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU. Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible MLB DFS  matchup tool! 

Any changes or edits will be marked in Red – check back before lock! 

 

Top Three Pitchers

 

Pitcher (no order):

Valdez
Snell
Singer (DK)/Freeland (FD)

Boom-or-Bust: Akin/Smyly

Notes: Weird night tonight with pitching as we have a ton of options that aren’t necessarily great but aren’t necessarily good either. When Framber Valdez and Davies are your most expensive options, that tells you that you should buckle in for a wild night. Anyway with that said, I can find faults in every single one of these pitchers so my recommendation first and foremost is to play a line or two more than you usually do. That doesn’t mean to play MORE money, just simply take the money you usually budget and spread it across a few different lineups. Instead of playing a $10 single-entry, play five $2 single-entries or something like that.

Valdez is near the top and coming off an amazing game and while I don’t think we can expect the same performance tonight, he is in a good spot against Seattle. Seattle has been my binky all season and they do have a few bats who can do damage but what is encouraging to me with Framber is his flyball rate allowed. He gets hit hard (3rd highest exit velocity on the slate) but he keeps it on the ground which is important. He could be popular after what he did last start and I think in cash and maybe even single-entry you probably have to plug and play but I think in tourney, tonight is a good night to take some chances elsewhere. Snell is kind of in the same boat…loads of potential, the second highest swinging strike rate on the slate and third highest strikeout rate on the slate but the guy just can’t hit the 6th inning for the life of him. He is so inefficient with his pitches that it makes it hard for him to go deep into games. He has a nice floor, but the ceiling may be somewhat limited for the price.

Singer is a little too expensive for me on FD but I like the price a lot on DK. The Cardinals are among the worst teams in the league to righties this season and while Singer doesn’t rack up the strikeouts like other guys tonight, his 3% barrel rate is the best on the slate and an elite number. Smyly may have some ownership because his surface numbers have been pretty decent and he has the highest K rate on the slate, but that is about where the good news ends for him. He is allowing the second highest exit velocity, highest barrel rate (16%), and the highest statcast hard hit rate on the slate. He also induces a huge launch angle which doesn’t mix well with the hard contact. The Rox get a lot of heat with their road struggles but this season, on the road to lefties, they have a few guys in this projected lineup that have been great. With Smyly projected to be somewhat popular, I may just fade him and hope the Rox get to him. Akin has been awesome this season and comes into this one with a top five swinging strike rate on the slate and the second highest strikeout rate (31%). JD and Bogaerts present a tough challenge but outside of them, there isn’t a ton in this Boston lineup that should scare people. Freeland is another guy who intrigues me – He has the lowest exit velocity allowed on the slate (86 mph) and the second best barrel rate (4%), right behind Singer. He won’t blow people away but can be solid and the Giants only have a couple bats that strike fear into me.

 

Top MLB Team Stacks (both sites, no order)

– I am going to list my preferred player stack, but these aren’t the only guys I would use as there may be some others that offer us salary relief. 

– Braves (Freeman/Acuna/Duvall/d’Arnaud/Ozuna) – Urena isn’t awful and the Braves figure to be chalk so in large fields we may want to think about being underexposed. It is a scary fade but I think there should be enough fireworks out there to make up for it. People should have a lot of salary left over tonight which will make plugging the Braves popular, but playing the boom-or-bust stacks tonight over the popular top three could prove fruitful in tourneys.

– Padres (Tatis/Moreland/Machado/Myers/Cronenworth) – Canning is another guy who is borderline bad, but also not hideous but SD has been one of the best teams in the league to righties this season and we should be able to get them lower than normal on this slate as people look to other spots like Minny or Atl.

– Minnesota (Buxton/Garver/Donaldson/Polanco/Sano) – Skubal is allowing a 1.93 HR/9, one of the highest marks on the slate and that is due to a 90 mph exit velocity and a slate-high launch angle of 49 degrees.

 

Top Boom-or-Bust Stacks

– Colorado (Pillar/Story/Fuentes/Kemp/Blackmon)

–  Orioles (Stewart/Mountcastle/Ruiz/Nunez) – 

–  TB (Lowe/Lowe/Arozarena/Wendle/Tsutsigo)

 

Top Three One-Off Plays 

– Stewart, Bal

– Dickerson/Aguilar, Mia

– Calhoun, Ari

 

Cash Game Foundation

*Since hedging your tourneys with cash games is extremely important in these daily sports like MLB, we have decided to include a cash game (double ups, 50/50’s) section at the bottom of our MLB DFS articles this season. These guys will be my foundation for cash games. I will focus mainly on where I think ownership will be and solid floors more so than who the actual “best” play at the position will be.  Some guys have very high ceilings suited best for GPP while also having low floors not ideal for cash games. It is imperative that we play ownership in cash as we just need to beat half the field in these games rather than finish first. We want to pay close attention to where the field is going so if we have a bust at high ownership it doesn’t bury us.  I love tourneys because they give me a chance to take some risks, but we want to play it safe in double-ups so I use my cash games to maybe eat some chalk that I may not be particularly high on because, again, we want to play ownership in cash.

Check back later in the day by 6:00pm as we get more of an idea of lineups! 

* Per request, I am going to do it a little different today and give a couple options, both a higher dollar guy and lower dollar guy at each spot.

  • Cardinals may be chalky tonight in cash but I am not sold on them so will limit my cash exposure

DraftKings MLB Cash Foundation: 

P: Valdez, Lugo, Snell

C: Contreras, d’Arnaud, Varsho

1B: Freeman, Walker,

2B: Altuve, Albies

3B: Donaldson, Bregman

SS: Should be sread out here…Seager, Bogaerts, Story

OF: Springer, Calhoun, Ozuna, Trout, Acuna, Betts, Soler, Bellinger

Fanduel MLB Cash Foundation:

P: Valdez, Snell

1B: Freeman

2B: Altuve, Albies

3B: Donaldson, Turner

SS: Bogaerts, Baez, Seager

OF: Springer, Martinez, Trout, Dodgers OFs, Calhoun, Acuna

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup, that weather is okay, and keep an eye on Vegas odds. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

 

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