UFC Fight Night Smith vs Texiera
Ok fight fans I am going to make this short and sweet as I won’t be giving a fight breakdown on every fight. This is a very weird and unpredictable card and I haven’t had the chance to watch a lot of tape. Almost all of these fights can go either way and we don’t have many fights favored to finish early. In fact, we have none that are favored to end in under 1.5 rounds. We will also be pretty spread out in ownership. I will not be doing my normal 20+ lineups and will instead focus on SE tournaments and look to take some stands and fade from some high ownership fighters. I will be making a core group that will be in my main lineups but will be making a couple hedge lines in smaller GPP’s.
Highest Odds to Win
Highest Odds to Finish (all of them)
Smith/Tex – 335
Rothwell- He is coming in the low 20’s ownership wise so I will certainly take advantage of that in SE contest. He is really the one underdog that can return an enormous amount of value due to his KO ability. He gets OSP here who isn’t really a true heavyweight. OSP has great range and he will need to utilize that if wants to win, which he can. I just don’t think he will be able to withstand the onslaught of Ben for 3 rounds.
Smith- It’s a tough task to take on a fighter like Tex. Tex is a seasoned vet but Smith is the younger fighter and actually had more pro fights. Tex certainly had a path to victory if he gets it to the ground but it won’t be an easy task as Smith is an above average grappler who win certainly punish Tex coming in. He will be the highest owned fighter of the night and I will certainly make him a core piece as I think he gets an early stoppage and even if he doesn’t it will be 5 rounds of heavy striking so either way he will certainly pay off in a win.
Lins- Its always tough to fight Arlovski even though he is ageing. Lins is making his UFC debut but he is a very well-seasoned fighter having fought in Bellator and recently winning the heavyweight championship in the professional fighters’ league in 2018. What was impressive about the PFL was that he won a tournament that saw him win 4 HW fights in a 6-month time frame. Most fighters fight 2-3 times over the course of a year and this guy fought 4 times in 6 months in the HW division which is no small feat. He also finished all of his opponents. I only had time to watch his championship fight but Lins moves very well and has quick powerful hands. Every exchange he threw vicious hard 3-4 punches to the head and body. Arlovski is tough and if he can stick and move, he may have success but if Lins gets inside and we see some exchanges things will end quick. I do have some concerns as he seems to let the fight come to him instead of pressing the action and Arlovski doesn’t really press the action at this stage of his career. Lins will pounce at the first sign of blood so the guy is aggressive in that aspect which makes me more confident.
Johnson/Moises- So we have striker vs grappler here. I think this is a truly tough fight to call to so in my two main lines I will split this fight considering they are both so very close in salary. Johnson is certainly on the decline but he is still a very polished striker and could squeak out a decision victory if he stays upright. Moises will certainly look to grapple here and get things to the ground where he is a pretty dangerous submission fighter. Split this up as the salaries won’t really mess up your builds. I do think this fight be very popular especially in the higher $$$ and SE tournaments as it allows you to get some of the better fighters and be flexible with the rest of your lineup. I’m making it a core but I wouldn’t blame you if you maybe wanted to choose a risker fight that has better potential to finish.
Fill in fighters
Dober- I think this is a sneaky fight to finish. If Hernandez goes for the hips and control, he could very easily win this fight but if he just goes punch for punch like his last two fights then Dober will crush. I will certainly be hedging with Hernandez in my smaller gpp contest.
Simon- The size here is an issue. I know they seem close but Simon will come in with 6” reach advantage which will make it easier for him to get in and shoot for takedowns. Simon is a natural 135 pounder and he just looks bigger. Borg is a really good scrambler so taking him down and keeping him down won’t be easy. I just honestly see the size of Simon being the determining factor as he should wear Borg down. I honestly wouldn’t blame anyone if they took a shot on Borg in their main lineups as I think he is a very live dog but ultimately, I think the size will be too much for him.
Morales/Benitez- This is another underrated fight to finish and actually sits at -110 to finish but slightly higher to go the distance at -121. The salaries make it tough to split but I think this fight is actually a lot closer than the line tells us. Benitez carries a much better resume of fights and has been fighting at a the highest of levels for quite some time. I always worry about a fighter (Morales) who has been in the game for 8+ years in his mid 30’s who hasn’t fought much under big name associations despite having a track record for finishes. If you don’t want to split, I’d lean the underdog here in Benitez.
Sherman- I really hate the first fight of the night like some of you know but its hard to look past the HW division on a card with so many question marks and fights looking to go the distance. Sherman isn’t very good but his opponent isn’t a natural HW and has actually fought at middleweight before. Sherman will have a good size advantage here and throws in bunches but takes punishment as well. I don’t think Ike has the size to finish him but he certainly is a live dog. I’m not looking to force Sherman into my lineups but the finish potential and my early builds are landing me on him so I don’t mind taking a chance with the finish potential. If you end up on Sherman you should 100% make a hedge in a small gpp, maybe not hedge in your mains but def in your smaller GPP lineups.
Eubanks- Like Spann last week I don’t see her paying off this salary. I’d rather have Smith in my lineup because outside of a loss Smith will more then likely pay off.
Fav Dogs (For Deeper GPP Purposes)
Below are my favorite dogs. These are for your deeper GPP plays if your playing in large contest.
Rothwell- Core guy for me
Moras- This is deep deep deep GPP only. Eubanks isn’t good and neither is Moras but I really don’t believe that Eubanks should be this big of a favorite
Benitez- He’s listed above as one of my main fill in pieces but I think he will be pretty popular today which limits his GPP upside. Def safer than Moras but for GPP shock purposes Moras give you better leverage on the field.
Hernandez- I think he loses but he is a live dog for GPP purposes.