UFC Lee vs Oliveira
Ok fight fans our boy Dana White said fuck the corona the show will go on so we have a DFS sport to play! Lets go over a few things because MMA isn’t your typical DFS sport. Please make sure you read below to understand the article better which will help you create your lineups.
First things first—–I am looking for finishes ie KO, TKO, Submissions etc. First place I look for this is the vegas odds which will tell me the favs to finish inside the distance…..everyone will be doing this and especially this weekend so chalky fighters will be even more chalky. Next place to look is at fighters finish rates which will strongly coincide with the finish odds from vegas but watching tape and looking fighters history can help us find a fight that destined to finish.
Second- This is not a one lineup sport! As you will see below I typically target fights that I feel will finish more so then fighters. I never go 100% and will always hedge with the other fighter. I will tell you when I am 100% in on a fight which means every line will have one of the two fighters in that fight. I typically play 10 lineups in the same contest. If you choose to play one lineup to get your fix that’s fine too but just understand this is the most volatile sport in DFS because one punch, kick, or wrong move can end anyone in the blink of an eye.
Third- Don’t feel the need to spend all the salary. It is very hard to come up with a perfect lineup that takes up all the salary so don’t feel the need to switch things up and rearrange your lineup….just make another one.
Fourth- This article will highlight my favorite fighters/Fights to target but don’t be afraid to grab another fighter I don’t list because I honestly will have fighters I don’t list in some lineups. Just know the fighters that I list will be the ones I focus on the most and will be in the majority of my lineups.
Ok that’s the jist of it now on to the card.
As I stated in the group these fights will take place in Brazil with a Brazilian in every fight but one and the judges favor their countrymen very heavily. This card isnt showing a lot of fights to finish but these out of towners will do what they can to dominate and secure decisions or go for broke and finish the fight and keep the judges out of it which can create more opportunities for finishes.
***FD has opened up MMA***
The only significant difference is the captain spot scoring which will weighs early finishes heavy. I really only see 4 fighters that we should target there. Walker, Krylov, Lee, Oliveira. Ill touch on them below but those will be the only fighters I put in that spot.
Main Focus Fights
Lee/Oliveira- It’s the only 5 round fight on the night but I really don’t see it going the distance. Both guys like to throw em. Lee will look to get this to the ground often but going against the BJJ black belt in Oliveira could get him in trouble as Oliveira will be looking to submit. This fight could go either way here so I will have one of each in every lineup but ultimately I see Oliveira catching Lee being sloppy and submitting him. EVERYONE WILL BE ON THIS FIGHT!
Walker/Krylov- What to know about this fight….Both guys either finish or get finished so this is another 100% exposure fight. Walker came into the UFC with a bang and recorded 3 straight quick 1st round finishes and was cocky as fuck about it. Well he got rocked his last time out. When you look back the competition was so so but I still feel as though he is a talented fighter that could one day work his way up the ranks to challenge Jon Jones. Krylov is a much more polished and experienced fighter in regards to striking and wrestling as evidenced by his impressive 15 submissions. I’m going 50/50 on this fight but I will lean Walker here in front of the home crowd to get him back on the track he was on.
Silva/Dvorak- This is a very interesting fight. Dvorak has been steam rolling the competition to the tune of a 88% finish rate which is pretty much even between KO/Submissions. Its clear what he wants to do with watching the few fights I could find. He hasn’t faced great competition but the important thing to remember is that he has crushed the competition. Silva is the more polished fighter and has faced higher level competition. He will look to get this to the ground but he will have to withstand the pressure of Dvorak which will be tough and its something he showed trouble doing in his first UFC fight as he was only able to secure 2 of 11 takedowns and wasn’t very active with his hands.I can certainly see a path to a submission finish here for Silva if Dvorak gets over aggressive and makes a mistake. Its tough to say what Dvorak will do in his UFC debut and there’s no place harder than Brazil for your first fight. The fight odds are basically dead even so both fighters are close in salary. I think Dvorak gets the better of Silva here but I will certainly have one of the two in most of my lineups if not all because I think this fight gets overlooked from a DFS perspective.
Fights I’m not 100% in on but will focus on
Silva/Moroz- Both fighters have a very decent finish rate in their short careers. Silva had a very impressive UFC debut against a very talented Gillian Robertson when she secured a 1st round submission. Silva was looking to throw the entire fight which is the opposite of what she’s tried to do in her short career. She gets a very high level boxer in Moroz who can throw some decent fist. She’s had a pretty rocky UFC career to date but if this fight ends up staying on the feet it will favor Moroz. I wont go all in on this fight as it has a high likelihood of going the distance but its certainly a fight that I could see ending inside the distance. I think Silva looks to trade gloves here and Moroz pulls off the upset as that’s here strong suit. Def a tough fight to gauge so make sure you get a piece of both fighters.
Dos Santos/Kunchenko- These guys just look to stand and bang and that’s what we’ll see. Both guys look to finish and look to finish early. Kunchenko is a great striking and will throw volume but his first big UFC test he came up short against Burns and gets an even tougher opponent in dos santos. Dos Santos will be looking to stand toe to toe and just throw with anybody and he has the chin to back it up. This could end up being an old fashion war. Very good odds to finish here. I lean dos santos for the win but will have Kunchenko in lineups as well.
Other fighters I will be mixing in—-remember to hedge
Barzola- excellent wrestler who throws a lot of punches but has a failry low land rate. High motor fighter who will eventually wear Yahya down. He should be able to get enough takedowns and significant strikes to pay off in a decision win. Yahya is an excellent wrestler in his own regard so we cant completely ignore him. I’ll only have a couple Yahya and will be more heavy on Barzola.
Makdessi- I will take a chance here with the better more active striker. Trinaldo wont put himself out there so this fight will surely go to the cards and if Makdessi keeps his distance and utilizes his far superior striking he has a clear path to victory.
Moicano- I hate hate hate that he is so expensive but he should win this fight easily but we certainly need a finish. The guy has fought some pretty stiff competition but he really needs to show something here coming off a two fight losing streak so I expect him to go for a finish here to get himself back in the mix of things in the division.