The Links brings you the very best in PGA Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, or just Fantasy Golf in general. Hours are spent researching, rankings, and picking the best players for both DraftKings and FanDuel, so you can dominate the PGA Contets in DFS this week. This is a weekly article and one of our pieces of cornerstone content to the site. PGA is basically a 12 month a year sport, and we’ll give you a weekly article to help you dominate your Daily Fantasy slates.
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Mile High Overview
The unofficial 5th major is upon us! This is actually my favorite tournament of the year. TPC Sawgrass offers a tremendous course and challenge to the players, its not too easy and also not too hard. I’d expect to see a winning score somewhere around -15. Some notes about what matters here. For one, recent form is huge. You have to come into this week under control on your game. The Florida swing is rough overall, so if you’ve survived up to this point, you can succeed here pretty well. That should put guys like Rory, Leishman, and DeChambeau in great spots here.
Course history is shaky for almost everyone, and that tells me that it isn’t as important here. Webb Simpson had been abysmal here early in his career, and won it 2 years ago. Rory had never really competed here historically, and then won last year. Si Woo Kim above all people won a few years back. This tournament can be and is wide open. MME is a great strategy this weekend, but if you find yourself having to build a single bullet, go with balance. You never find some of these elite golfers as cheap as you will this weekend.
This section is not my favorite plays, but rather guys who should be chalky in cash games. They may or may not align with my plays below them.
- Hideki Matsuyama or Bryson DeChambeau (both will be chalky, pick your favorite).
- Sungjae Im
- Webb Simpson or Colin Morikawa
- Colin Morikawa
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Webb Simpson
Hole in One:
My pick to win this weeks’ PGA Tour Event
I’m going to take time to talk about all the big dogs this week, because I know people will have questions about my thoughts on all of them. Let’s start with Rory McIlroy. As I write this I’m watching Golf Channel and hearing them go on and on about Rory. Personally I love it, Rory is a favorite of mine, and he’s special. Look you might as well reserve a Top 5 finish for him this weekend, as far as the high end guys, Rory is absolutely the safest one of the bunch. He’s in terrific form, and even when at his worse, is better than 99% of the field.
I’m also a big Justin Thomas fan, but I see him as most suspect this week, despite him being a great statistical course fit for this week. If Justin shows up on his game, he will be very hard to beat, but we haven’t seen his best since the Tournament of Champions in January. He did play well in Mexico, but a final round meltdown as the last we saw of him. It’ll be interesting to see him this week, and he would have been my favorite potentially low owned high dollar option.
Brooks Koepka price this week is a sham, as is his current golf game. One of Koepka’s great selling points over the years has been an absurd level of confidence, that even if he wasn’t a course fit, you’d play him anyway in these big tournaments because his ego would carry him. However listening to his own interviews of late, he hates his golf game, and lacks confidence entirely. Sometimes you need to list to the golfer, Brooks is a complete fade for me this week.
Dustin Johnson is the final discussion piece here before I discuss my winner pick, and Dustin is a conundrum. I think if you could get him to ever fully focus these days, he would win a ton of tournaments. His game has definitely faded off a bit, not sure what exactly is behind it. He’s always faired well here, and since he’s the cheapest of the 10k bunch, at exactly 10k, you could in theory make him your second piece of a stars and scrubs build. The PLAYERS tends to provide some shock and awe moments, it would be quite shocking to see DJ return and beat a star studded field…but honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised either.
Alright, now lets talk about Jon Rahm. It will be often forgotten that Rahm had a horrific round 4 last year, shooting a 4 over 76 in his final round, and wrapping up T12. He was right in the mix to win this thing prior to that round, and he made some mental mistakes in that round that he’s not showing the tendency to make anymore. Alot is being made of Rory’s form, but Rahm is nearly as good, cheaper, and less talked about this weekend. This is absolutely a high risk high reward pick. Rahm needs a signature win on the PGA Tour, and what better way to do that than the PLAYERS. He’s finished 34 of his 75 PGA Tour events in a Top 10, which is an insane rate considering his lack of wins. He’s going to break through in a big way soon, and wins will pour in. I’m still bullish on this being his year. He’s been amazing putting recently too, which is usually a weakness of his game. Oh, and if he wins, he becomes World #1 for the first time in his young career. It’s there for taking Rahmbo…go get it!
Excellent Picks, hopeful top 5’s
Webb Simpson / Bryson DeChambeau / Hideki Matsuyama
Now we enter the “juicy” section of DraftKings, between 8 and 10k. Dear god, imagine getting Top 10 golfers in the world, red hot ball strikers, and near winners in the last month
What is there to say about these 3. All are elite ball strikers. All are in great form (ignore Simpson’s Mexico performance, my own fault there, he just isn’t good at that course, but he’s good at Sawgrass).
Dechambeau is going to be very very popular this week, he’s coming in as the hottest ball striker over the last 8 rounds, and has flirted with victory 2 times in a row now. He’s also Top 10 in putting in that same time frame, and we know he’s very dominant off the tee right now. There’s a reason he’s a very popular pick this weekend to be the winner, and with the price, he’s going to catch massive ownership this weekend. Nonetheless, I love this play, I just don’t know that I see him winning.
Speaking of great ball strikers, Deki is right up there. The guy really struggles to putt, but his proximity can be so good at times that it negates the poor putting. He also can get hot at times, albeit rare, with the flat stick. When he does, he surges the leaderboard like no other.
Solid picks, hopeful top 10 finishes, outside chance of winning this weeks PGA Tour Event
Xander Schauffele / Tommy Fleetwood / Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay is absolutely elite in the approach game, over the last 12 rounds, he leads this entire field. He’s an elite ball striker, etc, etc. I mean the guys game is practically flawless. My issue with him, is to this point, he has yet to show he’s a winner. So for 9800, it’s a steep price to pay for a guy who seemingly backdoors Top 20’s constantly. He’s a slow starter notoriously at this point, so maybe all he needs this week is a hot start.
Xander hasn’t quite been the same since January for some reason, but I think he’s figuring it out. He’s hung around while backdooring some Top 25’s recently, but more importantly, he’s gained strokes putting in his last 6 rounds. That’s been his issue of late, his putting. The fact that he’s starting to get it back together, gives me hope for a high upside play this weekend. He did finish T2 here a couple years ago.
Tommy Fleetwood might go very under owned this weekend, but he’s a fantastic GPP pivot from the DeChambeau chalk. I think a lot of people will run off him after a horrific missed cut last week. I think that might be a mistake. The guy did just wrap up a 33 made cuts streak, and has a good course history here.
Aiming to hit the Top 25. Goal here isn’t to give you more expensive guys who are obvious, we want affordable guys who can hit top 25’s in this weeks PGA Tour Event.
Colin Morikawa / Scottie Scheffler / Sungjae Im
.Colin Morikawa is chalk, and I say eat away. Have as much Morikawa as you want, this kid is absolutely elite. He now holds the longest cut streak on tour, 20 straight made cuts(every single one in his career). He not only survived the bloodbath at Bay Hill last weekend, he thrived in it, with one of his best finishes ever. He’s an absolutely amazing ball striker, and thats what I’m after this week. Hopefully he can heat that putter up and get us a Top 10.
Scottie Scheffler is a rookie to this event, but I am really high on this kid. I think the sky’s the limit for him in the future. He’s another player who thrived in the tougher conditions last week at Bay Hill, a course that took some amazing players out of contention. Scottie is good at ball striking, and has a solid all around game that I like here.
And then there’s “The Machine”, Sungjae Im. The guy plays every single week, and shows no sign of slowing down. He was tied for the lead in the back 9 last week before fading off and losing to Hatton. But you’ll be hard pressed to find someone in better form coming in than Im. And he’s not big headed about his win either, he backed it up with a solid Top 5 performance at a tournament he coulda very easily taken lightly.
Roster filling mid tier guys who probably won’t finish top 10 or maybe even top 25 but can help you win.
Matt Kuchar / Marc Leishman / Tyrell Hatton / Daniel Berger
Guys I’d only take a small GPP Flyer on, have a good possibility of busting and missing the cut. Consider this your “punts” section, if you’re trying to jam in high dollar guys, these are some cheapies who could save your day. These plays are ranked exactly in the order that I like them.
Harold Varner III