The Links – PGA Picks for The BMW Championship

The BMW Championship  – PGA Picks

The Links brings you the very best in PGA Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, or just Fantasy Golf in general.  Hours are spent researching, rankings, and picking the best players for both DraftKings and FanDuel, so you can dominate the PGA Contets in DFS this week.  This is a weekly article and one of our pieces of cornerstone content to the site.  PGA is basically a 12 month a year sport, and we’ll give you a weekly article to help you dominate your Daily Fantasy slates.


Basic Facts:

Essential Stat Categories:  Driving Distance/Accuracy, Birdie Average, BoB%

Vegas Odds


Mile High Overview

Down to the round of 70 for the PGA’s FedEx Cup, and we’ve got a star studed field.  Going to be a really fun week, on a super long course.  The course is 7600+ yards, and distance/Par 5 scoring is going to be paramount. You have to be able to go low here, and some of the shorter drivers on tour won’t be able to do that.  This is a NO CUT event, so you can be a little more aggressive with your picks with no fear of losing your 6/6.


Roster Construction Thoughts

I’m truly thinking you should just punt one spot this week right out of the gates.  Drop into that 6k range on DK, find a guy you’re comfortable with, and then use the extra cash to load up the other 5 spots. In cash, as always play the chalk to death.

In GPP I’m going to say this, and it may not be popular but you need to take chances, lay it all out there, and go for the big hit this weekend.  Playing a bunch of chalk guys won’t get you anywhere, you HAVE to take chances.


Top Flight Picks

Be Sure to check out our PGA Rankings for custom grades, stats, and more.

 

Cash Core:

This second is not my favorite plays, but rather guys who should be chalky in cash games.  They may or may not align with my plays below them.

DraftKings:

  1. Adam Scott
  2. Paul Casey
  3. J. Niemann
  4. John Rahm

FanDuel:

  1. Rahm
  2. Thomas
  3. Scott
  4. Matsuyama

Hole in One:

My pick to win this weeks’ PGA Tour Event

Rory McIlroy

Did someone say this course needed a long hitter?  How about a guy having one of the best seasons on the PGA tour in a long long time.  Rory has a Top 10% rivaling that of Tiger in the early 2000s.  I love McIlroy for so many reasons this weekend, all the stats favor him (literally all of them), and since he fell short of winning a major this year, winning the FedEx Cup seems a logical conclusion to his season here.

Here’s a list of stats Rory leads this field in:

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

So if this is a hitters course, and we need long solid drives that set us up for good par 5 scoring, how do we not play this guy?

 

 


Albatross:

Excellent Picks, hopeful top 5’s

John Rahm / Jordan Spieth / Justin Thomas (Cash only for me)

So Rahmbo nearly had himself a win last week, and guess what?  He’s going to be right back in contention this week. He’s top 10 in birdie average, he is usually amazing off the tee (was last week especially), and can go real low when needed.  His games at a nice point right now, and his recent form supports that.  A lot to like, won’t be surprised to see him win either.

Jordan Spieth needs a nice week to get into the Top 30 for East Lake.  If you don’t follow golf, Spieth is one of the bigger names, but had a massive fall from grace over the last 18 months.  He missed going to the Tour Championship in East Lake last year. I really can’t believe he’d miss it 2 years in a row, and the guy is really really close to getting his game back.  I absolutely love this play because I expect him to be lower owned too as people are still fearful of him.

Justin Thomas is going to be uber chalky this weekend, seeing his name picked everywhere to win.  I just don’t see it, but he is a good overall golfer and would appear to fit this course well on the surface.  He’s an absolute cash must this weekend because of the chalk, but I am going to go ahead and fade him in tourney’s and hope the field makes this mistake.  I truly don’t expect him to compete for a win.

 


Eagles:

Solid picks, hopeful top 10 finishes, outside chance of winning this weeks PGA Tour Event

Patrick Reed / Ian Poutler / Rickie Fowler

So Patrick Reed wins last week, probably has the best form of anyone on tour, and yet he’s going to go lower owned again this week?  uh….Okay.  So I’ll bite and play him some, despite the expensive price tag.  He’s probably the best guy going form wise, and his game is just in tune right now.  I can’t find a weakness right now.  I don’t think he wins back to back…but he’s going to make his presence felt again.

Poutlier and Fowler for me are those “Chalk Pivots” I talked about earlier when I was saying you need to take chances.  The mid 8k range is loaded with chalk guys, and these 2 appear as though they’ll be the forgotten golfers.  Yet I think either can compete for a Top 10 here.  Poulter especially has a lot of my attention with the way he’s been playing of late.  Fowler is due to breakthrough for a big performance….its bound to happen soon.

 


Birdies: 

Aiming to hit the Top 25. Goal here isn’t to give you more expensive guys who are obvious, we want affordable guys who can hit top 25’s in this weeks PGA Tour Event

Abraham Ancer / Colin Morikawa (cash pick) / Marc Leishman

So Morikawa’s chalk should calm down a bit this week, but he’s a great fit on this course so I’m all over him for a cash pick this weekend.  Ancer is fresh off a massive performance and I think he follows it up with another solid one at a discount price.  He has top 5 upside, and is sub 8k.

Leishman usually bounces back very strong from missed cuts.  He doesn’t miss often, but when he has the last 3 years, the worst he’s finished in the next tourney was 39th.


Pars: 

Roster filling mid tier guys who probably won’t finish top 10 or maybe even top 25 but can help you win.

Charles Howell III / Rory Sabbatini / Jason Day

So this ones a lot more simple for me. Three plays, 3 huge chalk pivots.

The Chalk -> The Pivot:

Niemann -> Howell – Howell is the better player period and this obsession with Niemann is eventually going to burn those in the industry who keep shoving him down your throat.

Im and An -> Sabbatinni – Look I’m not sure why we’d play An at this point, he really hasn’t been good this year short of the Wyndham…and Im is consistent but has no upside for the chalk he brings.

Casey/Finau/Kokrak -> Day – Now look, admitedly this one you will want to play some Casey and Kokrak (I think you can fade Finau entirely).  But why not Jason Day?  He’s got a winners upside, which is more than I can say for the other guys here.  Sure Day has been very bad recently, but he has just separated with his recent Caddie in hopes of turning it around.  Maybe he does?  He needs a HUGE week to get into East Lake.

 

 

Bogeys:

Guys I’d only take a small GPP Flyer on, have a good possibility of busting and missing the cut.  Consider this your “punts” section, if you’re trying to jam in high dollar guys, these are some cheapies who could save your day.  

Corey Conners / Wyndham Clark / Cameron Champ / Keith Mitchell / Vaughn Taylor / Keegan Bradley

 

 

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