John Deere Classic – PGA Picks
The Links brings you the very best in PGA Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, or just Fantasy Golf in general. Hours are spent researching, rankings, and picking the best players for both DraftKings and FanDuel, so you can dominate the PGA Contets in DFS this week. This is a weekly article and one of our pieces of cornerstone content to the site. PGA is basically a 12 month a year sport, and we’ll give you a weekly article to help you dominate your Daily Fantasy slates.
Essential Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie Average, BoB Conversion
Mile High Overview
This one will be a full blown birdie fest, and the field couldn’t be any worse this week if we tried. With many of our household names off playing on the Euro tour this week to prep for The Open, we are stuck with some amazing young rookies, and a bunch of no names. Fortunately there is some good money to be made here so we shall carry on. The top 5 Vegas favorites are playing with 1 year or less of PGA experience…pretty incredible stuff.
My fade of the week is Zach Johnson. He will scream to be played when you look at course history, but this guy has been playing some horrible golf all year long. Not sure what the deal is, but I think he needs a lot more than a course he loves to get himself back on track right now. If he does well, I’ll gladly let him do so without any in my lineups.
Roster Construction Thoughts
I truly believe you’re going to need to pick one high end guy this week, simply because they are by far the most likely to win the thing. Oddly all the high priced names are the rookies, so your comfort level is probably not going to feel too high. Trust these kids though, they’re very very good. We are in the middle of witnessing a surge of new, fresh, and high upside talent on the PGA Tour…enjoy it for what it is. The Open is next week, so be sure to keep some money behind…big tourneys to come!
Top Flight Picks
Be Sure to check out our PGA Rankings for custom grades, stats, and more.
Hole in One:
My pick to win this weeks’ PGA Tour Event
He’s my favorite of all these young players coming out right now. I’ve got a good chance to watch him over the last few tourney’s he’s been in, and the kid is so good. He’s going to be a name you hear from a lot in the future, truly believe that. So far this year he’s averaging 4.75 biridies per round, and has a scoring average of 69.72. Those are rock solid stats for a rookie. He nearly won last week, got beat by a long eagle by Wolff on the last hole. I don’t think he falls to the same fate this time. It’s his turn to win one.
Excellent Picks, hopeful top 5’s
Matthew Wolff / Wyndham Clark / Ryan Palmer
Wolff just won last week, so I know there’s going to be an assumption of a hangover from that, but I don’t see that happening. There isn’t as much media attention on these past 2 tourneys as everyone gears up for The Open. So he, in theory, shouldn’t have to be as worn out as other people fresh off a win. His swing is probably one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen in golf, but damn if it doesn’t work for him. He is absolutely legit, especially on easier courses like this one. His stats are very similar to Morikawa above. Solid scoring and birdie averages, can go low.
Wydnham Clark is tops in the field of qualified players this week in birdie average with 4.34 per round. He played here a couple years back and missed the cut, but he’s a different player right now. What concerns me is last week he got a little wild off the tee in the 4th round, which arguably cost him a chance at a win. Nonetheless, he can score, and that’s what we need here.
Ryan Palmer is one of the top birdie average and GIR players in this weeks field, and usually does better in these weaker field tourneys. Don’t rule him out for a top 5 finish. He’s going to go slightly ignored due to other names around him, but maybe he shouldn’t.
Solid picks, hopeful top 10 finishes, outside chance of winning this weeks PGA Tour Event
Sungjae Im / Brian Harman / Charles Howell III
Im is going to be a very popular pick this week I believe, and probably should be to be honest. He’s in solid form, and does very well on courses where you have to “go low”. He grades out as an 80 for us this week, a rock solid grade. He’s more of a FanDuel play for me, as his price on DK is so high I’d rather play one of the guys mentioned further up in this article.
Harman has won and has another top 10 here in the past, and he’s really rolling into some fantastic form right here and is a sure bet to be on the lower owned side of things just based on the players who surround him. That putter of his is his primary weapon, and it’s getting hot. This is an easier course to putt on overall, so he should be dunking in some long ones this weekend.
Of qualified players for PGA Stats, no one in this tourney has a higher “rounds in the 60’s”% than Charles Howell III. He’s having himself quite the season. His birdie average leaves a little to be desired, but he usually doesn’t kill you with mistakes. I could definitely see him being a player in the mix for one of those “4 rounds in the 60s” bonuses.
Aiming to hit the Top 25. Goal here isn’t to give you more expensive guys who are obvious, we want affordable guys who can hit top 25’s in this weeks PGA Tour Event
Nate Lashley / Nick Watney / Johnson Wagner
Lashley has never played here before, so we don’t have anything to base course history off of. However he’s been playing very well recently, is solid in all scoring categories, especially birdie average (4.00 per round). I like him as a solid, yet slightly sneaky pick.
Watney is another guy who is rock solid in all scoring categories and continues to find himself hovering on leaderboards. For the price you’ll pay for him this weekend, you’d easily take a top 25 finish, which I believe he is more than capable of here. He averages a good amount of rounds in the 60s, about 1 every 3 rounds.
Wagner has some very strong course history backing him, with a slew of top 10 finishes here in the past. He holds his own in the scoring categories we are looking for this week, but his tee to green game scares me a little. Nonetheless if he can find greens this weekend, he will be in the mix for a very affordable price. Sometimes all a guy needs is to get back on a course they are good on.
Roster filling mid tier guys who probably won’t finish top 10 or maybe even top 25 but can help you win.
Doc Redman / Johnny Vegas / Troy Merritt
Redman has been pouring in birdies so far on the PGA tour, in fact out of 10 rounds played this year on tour, 8 have been 70 or below. He can go low when needed. Even last week when he had a bad round with a 77, he followed it up very strong with a 69. He’s one of my favorite “under the radar” plays this weekend.
Guys I’d only take a small GPP Flyer on, have a good possibility of busting and missing the cut. Consider this your “punts” section, if you’re trying to jam in high dollar guys, these are some cheapies who could save your day.
Ryan Vermeer / D.J. Trahan / Hank Lebioda
Really wouldn’t go to this range at all this week, I just don’t see a need for it.