The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three
For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite MLB players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel MLB players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but all the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are NOT the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the MLB field as much as possible.
Use these MLB plays along with your own research! Remember, this is a GPP-style article so I take some more chances than others. The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU. Let’s dive in!
*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible MLB matchup tool!
A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each MLB position.
* I am going to start listing the risk level next to my pitchers and stacks to give full disclosure of what we are getting into with each guy*
The Top Three
Corbin – low to moderate risk
Nola – moderate risk
*Keuchel – moderate to high risk
Boom-or-bust: Thornton – high risk
Bauer – moderate risk
Corbin – moderate risk
Keuchel – moderate risk
Boom-or-bust – Thornton – high risk
Pricing on pitching is through the roof today on DK – every guy there seems overpriced. Bauer checks in there at $10k, cheaper than Corbin, Nola, or Morton. I hate using Bauer because of his inconsistency, but we probably have to take his “discount” on DK as I just can’t pay $10.9 for Corbin on that site. If this matchup was in Cleveland, I would feel much better about it, but it is in small Great American where the ball flies, hence the moderate risk. Bauer’s main issue this season has been lefties and Cinci really can’t roll many impressive lefties at him today. Winker? Dietrich? Votto? Scooter? Eh. They can throw a bunch, but they don’t feel like high quality. If you DO have the money to pay up on DK, I think you go Corbin, but otherwise I think we just grit our teeth and play Bauer there. On FD, however, Corbin comes in almost a grand cheaper than Bauer and I will take Corbin there all day. He gets a matchup with the Royals who are the 4th worst team in the league to left-handed pitching. Corbin and Bauer both have their faults but if you are paying up, I think they’re your best options.
Nola is much more of a FD play for me today and even then, I am uncomfortable with his price. Pitching is priced very high on both sites today, though, so we have to adjust. Nola started the year uncharacteristically slugglish, but has really come on over the past three games. He sports a career-worst 9.5% swinging strike percentage, but over the last three has put up numbers of 15.9, 10.8, and 11.1, marked improvements over his season average and more in line with his career rate. He has recorded double digit K’s in 2 of those last three after only doing it once before this season to that point. He has also gone at least 7 innings in the last three after not hitting the 7 mark the entire season. These are all encouraging signs and gets a beatable matchup today with the dysfunctional Mets.
Again, this feels like more of a FD play than a DK one but I think he is still in play over there. It’s been a rocky start to the season for the lefty, but he did show improvement last game and his price is absolutely dirt cheap on FD. We will need the savings if we want to run one of the many expensive stacks that are in great spots today so he could be pretty popular. He is allowing a ton of hard contact through his first three games, but his groundball rate is elite and is limiting flyballs as he has done throughout his career. He matches up very nicely against Miami as they lead the league in groundball rate to lefties so far this season. I have no issue with hard contact if the ball is being kept on thr ground which it should be today for the most part. He lacks some K upside, but we hope to make up for that with innings and a win bonus and the Braves are heavily favored in this one.
Top Three MLB Plays by Position
* value: Thames
*No huge value here
Notes: This position is absolutely loaded. If you had to pick ONE spot to pay up at, it is this one.
Outfield (6 for good measure):
Other positional value below
Adams, Kendrick, Kipnis, Schoop, Brosseau, M Gonzalez, Adames, Reynolds, Naquin, Markakis, Bauers, Marisnick, Gamel – also check back closer to lock as I expect some value to open up.
Top MLB Team Stacks (both sites, no order)
Boston (Martinez/Betts/Bogaerts/Devers) – Chavis for value – low risk – Boston started out slow to lefties, particularly Betts, but they have turned it around of late and over the last 30, JD and Mookie have been smashing. JD has a wOBA and ISO well over .400 and Betts holds great marks himself over that time frame. This stack should by far be the most popular on the night so you will definitely want exposure in cash or single-entry tourneys. As always, one way to differentiate from the chalk is to play Devers with this stack. Devers almost ALWAYS comes in at half the ownership of “the big two” in these Sox stacks. He may be a little higher should JD or Betts sit but his position is deep AND people may still avoid the LvL matchup. Bogaerts should also come in much lower owned due to the extreme depth at his position. Shortstop has about 6 guys that command attention at the top, putting Bogaerts down the priority list when it comes to Sox stacks. These two could help separate you from the pack.
Cubs (Rizzo/Schwarber/Baez/Bryant) – Garcia for value – low risk – Nova has been an absolute dumpster fire for the White Sox this season and even more, his ERA is almost 4 runs higher at home than it is on the road. The Cubs have been the 6th best team to righties this season and should have little trouble disposing of Ivan and the White Sox.
Hou (Alvarez/Brantley/Bregman/Springer) – low to moderate risk – Houston should once again be the most popular team on the slate. A tourney fade is more than viable with so many other options on the board. Heck, if you went that route last night, you had a leg up on the field. I think they will do great in this matchup, but it all comes down to ownership – if you can find a nice secondary stack to go with them that will separate you, they’re a great option, but if you want to fade, you can go with similar upside in a team like a Boston or an Atlanta at a little lower ownership and hope Houston busts. If you insist on playing them but still want an edge, you can play Alvarez and Brantley assuming they’re in the lineup. The should come in slightly lower than the righties as people usually avoid the LvL matchup but Suarez can give it up to both sides.
Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar MLB Stacks (high risk, should be reserved only for tourneys)
Toronto (Biggio/Galvis/Smoak/Sogard) – Tellez for value – moderate risk – Toronto gets to tee off on Asher Wojciechowski today. Asher held his own last start against Tampa, but that actually isn’t saying much right now as Tampa has been one of the worst teams to righties over the past month. One of the best teams? These Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto sports the 4th best ISO to righties over the past month and there is a reason that Wojciechowski is a 30 year old minor league journeyman.
Atl (Freeman/Donaldson/Albies/Acuna/Riley) – moderate risk – Trevor Richards has started twice this season against the Braves and held his own, but there are a couple things going on there. First, both those games were at the friendly confines of his home park in Miami, a stark contrast to SunTrust in Atl where he will be pitching today. The Braves hold the highest ISO at home to righties over the last month.
Minnesota (Cruz/Gonzalez/Polanco/Kepler) – moderate risk – The Twins offense has tailed off lately but today they get Palumbo who is an absolute dumpster fire.
Honorable mention extreme boom-or-bust: Cleveland (Lindor/Ramirez/Santana) – Naquin and Bauers for value – high risk – The Indians are a stack that I think will go under the radar today as all of their best players are at absolutely loaded positions that people will have other focus on than the tribe. Tyler Mahle also isn’t perceived to be as bad as some of the other pitchers on this slate. However, one thing haunting mahle this season are his L/R splits. He is actually pretty dominant to righties, pitching to a stellar 2.76 xfip to them while allowing just a .278 wOBA. Lefties are a different story for him as he has a whopping 5.21 xfip and .353 wOBA and an eye-popping 2.58 HR/9 to them. The Indians have completely turned their season around as they’re now very much in the hunt for the wildcard and even more importantly for DFS purposes, are 2nd in ISO and 5th in wOBA to righties over the last month. They also get the added benefit of playing in Coors-East today in Great American.
As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup, that weather is okay, and keep an eye on vegas odds. My favorite site for MLB Vegas odds is: http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/. Don’t forget that MLB is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!