MLB Triple T – 6/18 DFS GPP Advice

The Triple T

For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite MLB players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel MLB players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but all the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are NOT the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the MLB field as much as possible.

Use these MLB plays along with your own research! Remember, this is a GPP-style article so I take some more chances than others. The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU. Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible MLB  matchup tool!

A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each MLB position.

* I am going to start listing the risk level next to my pitchers and stacks to give full disclosure of what we are getting into with each guy*

The Top Three

Fanduel Pitcher:

Verlander – moderate risk
Hamels – moderate risk (FD Only, too expensive on DK)/Woodruff – moderate to low risk
*Flaherty – low risk
Boom-or-bust: Keller – high risk

Verlander

It might be strange to list one of the best pitchers in the game a moderate risk against one of the weaker offenses, but the park here is what scares me. Verlander should rack up his fair share of Ks, but he can’t strikeout everyone and the contact he does allow has been hard and high.  In this park, it doesn’t take much to get it out, so one or two of those flyballs could make their way out of this small bandbox.  Keep an eye on weather.

Flaherty

Flaherty is just simply too cheap on both sites tonight.  I usually never ever go 100% on a pitcher, and I won’t tonight, but I will be darn close. It might seem like a cop out just loading up on the pitcher playing the Marlins, but the price is too cheap – I’d play him at this price on FD against half the league. It just helps that the Marlins are one of the weaker offenses. With that said, they’ve improved drastically recently, ranking around the middle of the pack to righties over the past month in wRC+, but that is more on the back of a couple huge performances. This is still a relatively weak offense that Flaherty should have minimal trouble with.  On FD, we also have the option of going Hamels if we want a pivot in a lineup or two. He is also very cheap on FD and gets a date with the weak-hitting White Sox. Outside of a couple bats, there isn’t a heck of a lot to worry about on this roster. Again, ONLY a FD play.

Keller

I tend to lean Keller more on FD than DK, but he is viable on both sites if you’re willing to take some chances.  He hasn’t had a great start to his major league career but this is still one of the better pitching prospects in the league we are talking about.  He gets a Detroit team that is striking out at a league-most 26% to righties over the past month and will be losing the DH tonight.  It’s a huge risk, but I am banking on him getting back to his high-whiff ways he displayed in the minors.

 

Top Three MLB Plays by Position

Catcher (DK-centric):

Sanchez
Garver
Value*: E Diaz/Molina

1st Base:

Rizzo
Encarnacion
Santana
* value: Olson

2nd Base:

Torres
Lowe
*None in this range tonight

3rd Base:

Arenado
Escobar
*Carpenter

Shortstop:

Lindor
Marte
Baez
*Gregorius

Outfield (7 for good measure):

Trout
Blackmon
Stanton
JD Martinez
K Davis
Y Alvarez
*Peralta

Other positional value below

Adams, C Walker, Aguilar, Holt, Kipnis, Guerrero, R Nunez, Kang, Galvis, Ahmed, Schwarber, Braun, L Gurriel, Dyson, Bauers,

Top MLB Team Stacks (both sites, no order) 

Arizona (Escobar/Marte/Peralta) – moderate risk – Arizona gets Antonio Senzetela tonight in a hot Chase Field with the roof supposedly open. Senzetela has one of the lowest launch angles against, but he is also near the top of the league in hard hit percentage allowed and the D’Backs have a few bats that can really tee off on him.

Yanks (Stanton/Sanchez/Voit/Hicks) – Didi for value – moderate risk – Okay, I admit…I am buying into the hype of this roster getting healthy. They have ranked toward the bottom against southpaws all season, but are now getting back to almost complete health and will be facing soft-tossing lefty Tyler Yarbrough once Ryne Stanek leaves.  Yarbrough can be up and down, but I do think he will be outmatched here tonight against this lineup.  Stanton might not be back to his world-beating ways just yet, but his presence in the heart of the order will allow everyone else to see much better pitches to hit.

Cleveland (Santana/Lindor/JRam/Mercado) – Bauers for value – moderate risk – Everyone was on the Indians last night against Lance Lynn and I am not quite sure why as Lynn hasn’t been bad at all.  Sampson on the other hand has shown decent stats at face value, but his metrics are speaking to regression coming.  I am really hoping this stack isn’t as highly owned as they were last night, but I like them regardless in the launchpad in Arlington. Very quietly, the Indians have climbed to rank 2nd in ISO and 7th in wOBA to righties over the past month.

Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar MLB Stacks (high risk, should be reserved only for tourneys)

Boston (JD Martinez/Benintendi/Betts/Devers) – Pineda’s velocity has increased a couple miles per hour over pre-injury but the Sox could still provide a sneaky little stack here.  It’s a huge 15 gamer and Boston should come in at low single digits and that might be enough to make it worth it for us to spend up for them in a lineup and grab a top-3 team to righties whil everyone else goes elsewhere.

Cubs (Rizzo/Schwarber/Bryant/Baez) – moderate risk

Stl (Carpenter/DeJong/Goldschmidt/Ozuna) – high risk – This one is more because I don’t biuy into Yamamoto than it is actually loving the Cards.  It can be tough sometimes to face a pitcher in their debut, having not seen the guy before and the unfamiliarity winning out.  Fortunately for the Cards, they get to see Yamamoto on a pretty quick turnaround and he isn’t a guy that has overwhelming stuff. In fact, he kind of displayed reverse splits in the minors and is facing a team full of righties tonight.  In his first start against the Cards, he did allow almost 60% hard contact with a big flyball rate in the friendly confines of his home park.  If those same metrics present themselves tonight, he may not be so lucky.

Honorable mention: Oakland, Colorado

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup, that weather is okay, and keep an eye on vegas odds. My favorite site for MLB Vegas odds is: http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/. Don’t forget that MLB is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

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