First or Last
Alright, alright, alright….. Man this night has me stumped with pitchers. There’s a guy I kind of love but I am so unsure from looking at numbers that I will be going both ends of that matchup. I’m currently sitting at my sisters graduation so this will be brief.
Degrom- There was a time when I was considered the Degrom whisperer…….well I’m hearing whispers today. He seems to be pretty dialed in over his last 4 starts, yes even the Dodgers game even though it sucked DFS wise it was still a good start against a good hitting dodgers team. The Cards team has been pretty pitiful to RHP over the last 14 and striking out a ton. Degrom is a reasonable price and always has smash potential.
Happ- this is the guy I love today but scares the shit out of me. He’s been very good as of late for this price tag. The CWS scare the shit out of me though. They aren’t that good but this lineup has some pretty decent WOBA to LHP which doesn’t necessarily mean HRs or Runs as they rank low in those categories but could limit how deep he goes. It’s still a good K matchup for him and the Yanks should pound Nova so Happ should grab an easy W.
Bailey- Yup I’m going here. The Tigers still SO a ton to RHP and yes I know that Bailey is bad but check this. He walks a lot of batters (bottom 15 in the league amongst starters) and he crumbles on the mound when runners are on base. So what gives today? He gets a Detroit team that ranks towards the bottom of the league in walks. Remember First and Last is about calculated risk and I feel as though this is a decent calculated risk. We know the tigers are bad to rhp, we know they strike out a ton, we have identified a major problem with Bailey, the matchup helps with this problem, and he’s cheap enough to take a chance on.
Flaherty- I’ll be honest I do like some Mets lefties but he is really good to RHH with 30+% K rate and 265 woba. The lefties worry me to take him yard so I’ll have a taste of them. I know he has some pretty extreme H/R splits but when you look deeper he got lit up by Mil twice and the Cubs in his last start on the road. Pretty good teams imo.
Skaggs- I’ll play any lefty against the Rays
Sampson- if I’m fading the Red Sox might as well play the pitcher facing them.
Lower Owned Stacks
Yanks- should be popular but who cares we differentiate elsewhere. Nova is a pile of shit.
Mets Lefties- I know i listed Flaherty but if your not going to play him you might as well take advantage of his monster HR/9 to lefties.
Dodgers Righties- I Fucking hate Jon Lester with a fucking passion. These righties come in cheap tonight too. I also don’t mind some fliers in Bellinger and Muncy even though Lester contains LHH these guys smash LHP
Dbacks- Fredde isn’t terrible but outside of his last start he doesn’t go too deep and that Nats BP is bad.
High Owned Stacks I like
High Owned Stacks I’m fading
I will be throwing a little CWS stack in somewhere to hedge my Happ play.