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US Open – PGA Picks
Essential Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy
Mile High Overview
Weather Courtesy of Chris Rothar
Clearwater Country Club
Pebble Beach, CA
Thursday: More clouds than sun. Temperatures in the upper 50’s. Winds 5-10 mph.
Friday: Partly Cloudy. Temperatures in the upper 50’s. Winds 10-15 mph.
Saturday: Partly Cloudy. Temperatures in the low 60’s. Winds 10-15 mph.
Sunday: Partly Cloudy. Temperatures in the low 60’s. Winds 5-10 mph.
Roster Construction Thoughts
Top Flight Picks
Be Sure to check out our PGA Rankings for custom grades, stats, and more.
Hole in One:
My pick to win
It’s getting boring, I know, but another Major has rolled around and here we are again. Look…why shouldn’t we be picking this guy at this point? He’s out there talking trash to opposing golfers now about whining…gotta love it. Either way, lets talk golf, tremendous irons play he’s gaining so many strokes on his opponents right now its not even funny. This course will be a challenge, and one that only the mentally tough can survive. We know he’s got the mental toughness. Whether you love narratives or want stats, this guy covers every base.
Now…full disclaimer on this pick, I’ll be lightweight, and it has nothing to do with him, but how the rest of the lineup looks around him. The value is very shaky this week, so affording him could be tough.
Excellent Picks, hopeful top 5’s
Justin Thomas / Tommy Fleetwood / Dustin Johnson
Justin Thomas wrist is going to scare some people, but his form is coming around, and he is truly up there as one of the most, if not the most, raw talented player in the world. He’s got the discipline, and resume to win a US Open, especially at Pebble Beach. His irons are usually a strength in his game, and if he can keep his putting together he’ll be a threat. I love his price on DraftKings this week, I think 9300 is just begging to be played.
Tommy Fleetwood, aka the best player currently to not have won a major, is here again. He keeps finishing top 25 in majors though, so you have to feel like his big break is coming soon. He is absolutely a great play this week either way at just 8900 on DraftKings. I find it hard to believe he won’t find himself in the mix this weekend. He does a lot of things well.
Dustin Johnson has been getting super close to claiming another major championship, and he has done very well historically at Pebble Beach. He’s also done great at US Opens….is it all going to come together for him this week? Here’s my only issue with playing DJ, if I’m paying that much I’m probably leaning to Koepka first, but it is not a bad idea to get a share of DJ. He does every single part of his game very well.
Solid picks, hopeful top 10 finishes, outside chance of winning.
Webb Simpson / Hideki Matsuyama / Adam Scott
Webb Simpson continues to be disrespected price wise for a guy with only one finish outside the top 40 all year. He’s always a guy who lingers around in majors. Never truly a threat to win, but he will compete for a top 25 spot at least I’d imagine.
Mats will be super popular this weekend. He’s got a fantastic approach game, and is always a threat for a Top 10. He’s probably going to be chalky, and is a fantastic cash play this weekend.
Speaking of great, chalky, cash plays…how about Adam Scott. Seriously what is there not to like here? Some footage has leaked of him practicing his old anchoring technique for putting, so he’s probably changing putters yet again. The thing is, regardless of which one he’s been using, he’s been in contention alot recently, and for his embarrassingly low price, he offers the upside to win the damn thing. I’ll take that bet any day of the week.
Aiming to hit the Top 25. Goal here isn’t to give you more expensive guys who are obvious, we want affordable guys who can hit top 25’s.
Bryson DeChambeau / Matt Kuchar / Xander Schauffele
DeChambeau is going to go super low owned, but he’s a technician who can figure out the intricacies of this course very well. It’s all about confidence with him right now, he hasn’t seemed right in quite a while and I’m not sure this is the week where he fully bounces back. But his talent level coupled with low ownership makes him a great leverage play for me this week. He’s an above average approach player who can get hot putting at times.
Matt Kuchar is sure to be popular here, but be careful. I think if there is a chalk likely to bust, its Kuch this week. He started the year so hot, but he’s really cooled off alot since that point. So alot of his stats are still being inflated by a super hot start to the year. Can he compete, absolutely…but he can also miss the cut…so be careful.
Xander Schauffele is like Brooks Koepka LITE. He’s got all the tools, and he’s go the “chip on my shoulder” thing about him. Problem is for me he simply hasn’t been playing well enough recently for me to give him too much ownership. That being said anytime I can get him sub 9k on DraftKings I’ll have to consider at least a couple shares. He can be an assassin at times.
Roster filling mid tier guys who probably won’t finish top 10 or maybe even top 25 but can help you win.
Gary Woodland / Paul Casey / Matt Wallace / Brandt Snedeker / Graham McDowell
If you held a gun to my head and asked me which of these 2 make a serious run, its Wallace and Snedeker. Snedeker loves Pebble Beach, always seems to play well here. Wallace just is a forgotten guy who keeps competing everywhere he goes it seems.
Guys I’d only take a small GPP Flyer on, have a good possibility of busting and missing the cut. Consider this your “punts” section, if you’re trying to jam in high dollar guys, these are some cheapies who could save your day.
Scottie Scheffler / Scott Piercy / Lucas Glover / Chez Reavie / Nate Lashley
Scheffler is super risky so please play that one with caution. The guy is arguably the best player on the Web tour right now, but that doesn’t always translate to the pros.