The Triple T – 6/11 – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Advice

For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but all the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are NOT the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the field as much as possible. Use these plays along with your own research! Remember, this is a GPP-style article so I take some more chances than others! The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU! Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible matchup tool!

A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each position.

* I am going to start listing the risk level next to my pitchers and stacks to give full disclosure of what we are getting into with each guy*

TOP THREE

Fanduel Pitcher:
Corbin – moderate risk (walks)
Paxton – moderate risk (innings)
*Hudson (moderate risk)
Boom-or-bust: F Peralta (Fanduel – high risk)/Elieser Hernandez (FD and DK – high risk)

Notes:  I want to list a disclaimer right off the bat here – I will probably be exposed to other pitchers on top of the ones listed above.  This is because tonight is a night full of mediocre pitchers, all of whom I kind of want a part of and whom I also want to stack against.  It’s a really strange night in that regard.  We have Corbin, Paxton, Bauer, and Castillo at the top and really, I don’t think we have to go there tonight. I kind of like all four, but I am not tripping over myself to get them. I kind of like all those guys, I just am unsure they pay off their tag and I think we can similar value or better in the mid range.  If I was playing four lineups, I’d have either Paxton or Corbin in one and then spread out mid range guys in my other three. It’s that kind of night!  Corbin is in a great spot, I just hate the ballpark and am iffy on how many righties CHW will be rolling out.  With that said, I think he is probably in the best spot of the three big guns.  I am a Castillo truther, but I just don’t love the spot he is in as Cleveland is hitting more and striking out less of late.  Hudson has been absolutely dominating right-handed bats to the tune of a miniscule 12% flyball rate and a .234 wOBA. His major issue comes with lefties as he simply can’t get them out, allowing a wOBA almost 200 points higher than to righties! Miami should be rolling out 6 righties along with a pitcher in a pitcher-friendly stadium so I think Hudson should provide us with some nice value.  Peralta is very cheap on FD compared to DK, so he is only a FD-only play and only a play if you want to get a little wacky. Houston has been one of the worst teams to righties over the last two weeks as they battle through their injuries but they are still Houston which makes him a deep GPP flier.

Catcher (DK-centric):
Chirinos
Grandal
Value*: Castro/Gomes

 

1st Base:
Bell
Rizzo
* value: Kendrick

2nd Base:
Lowe
Moustakas
Torres
*Schoop

3rd Base:
Arenado
Rendon
Escobar
*Sano

Shortstop:
Story
Polanco
Bogaerts
*Goodrum

 

Outfield (6 for good measure):
Bellinger
Meadows
Blackmon
Betts
Soto
*Peralta/Cruz

Other positional value below 3K FD: Choi, Thames, Dozier, Vargas, Marwin Gonzalez, Guerrero, Moran, Adames, Newman, Reyes, Reddick, Markakis, Dickerson, L Gurriel, Dyson, T Hernandez, Y Alvarez

Top Team Stacks (both sites) :

Washington (Rendon/Kendrick/Turner/Soto) – Dozier for value – low risk – The Nats got Odrisamer Despaigne last night and luck out again tonight by getting someone potentially worse in Manny Banuelos. Banuelos has just simply looked overmatched at the major league level and frankly, I am not sure why they continue rolling him out there. He is allowing a wOBA of over .400 to both side of the plate which could actually cauuse Soto to go underowned as part of this stack as people look to load up on the righties. Soto hits lefties well and then should have the platoon advantage once Manny is chased from the game. This is my top stack on the night and its really not even close.

Boston (Betts/JD/Bogaerts/Devers) – Low risk – Tonight Boston gets Ariel Jurado who was our poster boy for value a week ago but who I am looking to stack against today. Jurado displays reverse splits which plays right into Boston’s hands as they can roll out three incredible righties in Bogey, JD, and Mookie. He is allowing 42% hard contact to righties and while his flyball rate isn’t appealing, he is allowing over 2 HR/9 to righties which has resulted in a pretty high HR/FB ratio which the Sox should take advantage of tonight.

Arizona LH (Peralta/Escobar/Dyson/Marte) – moderate risk – The Diamondbacks were not on many people’s radars last night, but showed up for us in a big way. Because of their output last night, they should go a little higher owned tonight, but they’re in a good spot again regardless. They get Jake Arrieta who struggles against lefties to the tune of a .394 wOBA against while allowing a whopping 2.6 HR/9, 5.85 xfip and striking out southpaws at only a 14% clip.

 

Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar Stacks (high risk, should be reserved only for tourneys):

Cubs/Rockies (Rizzo/Schwarber/Baez/KB) – moderate risk – it may seem like a copout listing a Coors team as a stack, and even on the under-the-radar list, but I have a feeling the Cubs (and Rockies) go underowned tonight. Both these teams are expensive and there isn’t complete gas cans on the mound, so people may opt to go elsewhere tonight with so much firepower across the board. The Cubs just got shutout against Lambert so why would I recommend them this time around? Well, seeing a rookie for the first time can often catch a team off guard as they have no history on him. Having seen Lambert before – and so recently – can be a major benefit for the Cubs. Another thing working in their favor is the fact that Lambert’s secondary pitch is a curveball and the altitude at Coors could cause that to have less break and hang up in the zone. Add Rockies (Arenado/Story/Desmond) to this Coors stack or play separately.

Minnesota (Cruz/Polanco/Kepler/Rosario) – Schoop for value – high risk – Minnesota ranks first in ISO to righties over the past month. I know…we know they’re good, but you want to know the amazing part? They have a whopping 50 point lead on the second place team! Yeah, this team is really frigging good to righties and they get a mediocre one tonight in Mike Leake. So why is this a high risk? Leake has reverse splits and Minnesota is filled with lefties. I still like them a ton but it is why I am upping the risk factor on them. Leake had a good game last game but allowed a total of 7 homers in the three games before that one. This guy is a roller coaster and he gets the best offense in baseball in a very humid Target Field. This is a high risk-high reward stack. Any time we can get the best offense in the league low-owned, we should take that opportunity.

Pit (Bell/Polanco/Dickerson) – high risk

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup and that weather is okay. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

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