The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three – 6/9 – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Advice

For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but all the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are NOT the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the field as much as possible. Use these plays along with your own research! Remember, this is a GPP-style article so I take some more chances than others! The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU! Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible matchup tool!

A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each position.

* I am going to start listing the risk level next to my pitchers and stacks to give full disclosure of what we are getting into with each guy*

TOP THREE

Fanduel Pitcher:
Odorizzi – Low risk
Ray – low risk
*Gray – moderate risk
Boom-or-bust: E-Rod – (Moderate/high risk)/Bundy (tremendous risk)

DraftKings Pitcher:
Odorizzi – low risk
Nola – moderate risk
*Fried – moderate risk
Boom-or-bust – Snell (moderate risk – edit 11:00am – much more in play after seeing Red Sox lineup)/Sparkman (extreme risk)

Notes:  For me, Odorizzi is the top play on the slate. He offers the least risk as well as one of the highest ceilings on the slate.  He is a little pricy on DK so I understand the pay down there, but he is priced about where he should be on FD.  This is a guy that has allowed just 3 ERs total over his last SEVEN starts! Yes, you heard that right…3 runs over 7 starts and now he gets the Tigers who come into this one with the third worst wOBA and third highest strikeout rate to righties over the last month.  I also love Robby Ray, but I think he is a tad overpriced on DK for not going that deep into games and sometimes getting into issues with walks. I would not pay for him on DK, but on FD I will have a good amount of exposure at $8.8.  Toronto has been a little better over the past month to southpaws, but they’re still a bottom-10 team to them, K at a good clip and really, that’s why we are playing Ray – for the K’s.  Again, I think he is overpriced on DK, so he is much more in play on FD. The same can be said for Sonny Gray.  Sonny is having one of the best years of his career, averaging a whopping 10 K/9 while allowing just a .53 HR/9.  He is absolutely dominating left-handed bats this season to the tune of a .198 wOBA and .3 HR/9 which should help to offset the likes of Harper and Bruce. He is better on the road this season (makes sense, pitching away from Great American), though Citizens Bank in Philly isn’t much better than his home park. Even still, he is priced nice on FD so it is hard to overlook.  He comes with a decent amount of risk so beware. A guy I didn’t list was Thor (Syndegaard). He is ridiculously cheap (for him) on both sites as his price just continues to plummet. I expect him to have ownership on both sites and could even be chalky, but I will pass. It is a scary fade because we are caught up on the name recognition, but he really hasn’t shown anything great. The league is finally catching up to the fact that he just throws a 97 mph fastball and not much else. He should do okay, but there’s just other spots I would much rather go. DK has a plethora of pitching options that I didn’t even mention here that I would rather go. It is strange to see Snell on the “boom-or-bust” list, but on DK, he is just too cheap to ignore. On FD, he is a definite fade for me, but on DK, he is under $10k so we have to talk about him. He just hasn’t been himself lately and hasn’t paid off a tag in a while which is why I am not high on him and Boston, while struggling to lefties this year has gotten a little better and ranks in the top ten (8th wOBA and 10th ISO) to lefties over the past month. Some people may be sucked in to Snell on DK because of the price, and if that’s the case, it will be a close-my-eyes-and-fade type deal. Don’t go crazy on Sparkman – he is really just an option if you want to completely punt the SP2 option on DK, but carries a tremendous amount of risk. Fried or even Bundy may be better options at SP2 though they’re a couple grand more. If you want a “lay your nuts on the table” type play on Fanduel…Dylan Bundy. Keep in mind this is TREMENDOUS risk, but Houston just isn’t the same right now missing all their pieces. Aside from Brantley and Bregman, they’re rolling out a Triple-A team and it is showing – they are 17th in wOBA over the last month to righties…4th worst over the last two weeks! It is purely a Fanduel boom-or-bust play as I’d just rather go Fried for the price on DK.

Catcher (DK-centric):
Garver
Severino

(Edit: Adding Grandal over Severino – wasn’t expecting Grandal to play when written)
Value*: D’arnaud/Pina

Notes: It is Sunday so it is catcher off-days, but I expect all these guys to play based on recent playing time, but just double check regardless!

 

1st Base:
Freeman
P Alonso
* value: CJ Cron

2nd Base:
Moustakas
LeMehieu
*Schoop

3rd Base:
Escobar
Sano
Bregman (listing three since R Nunez isn’t on DK)
*R Nunez

Shortstop:
Mondesi
Lindor
Polanco
*Gregorius

 

Outfield (6 for good measure):
Yelich
Meadows
K Marte
Conforto
*Braun
*Cruz

Other positional value below 3K FD: Chavis, Aguilar, K Cron, Dietrich, Alberto, Kipnis, Ahmed, Arcia, Adrianza, McNeil, Harold Ramirez, Gardner, Winker

Top Team Stacks (both sites):

Milwaukee (Yelich/Moose/Grandal/Cain/Braun) – Aguilar, Perez for value – low risk – Milwaukee once again gets a dogshit Pittsburgh pitcher. Today, Steven Brault is the victim. Yelich is lefty so it is possible that he goes lower owned as people avoid the LvL matchup, but its one he can handle just fine, sporting a .355 ISO to lefties (over .650 at home to them!). Even more, once Brault gets chased, he gives way to an awful Pitt bullpen. Making this stack even more appealing is that Milwaukee will be rolling out their southpaw lineup which means we should have nice value plays in Hernan Perez, Aguilar, and Orlando Arcia

Minnesota (Cron/Polanco/Cruz/Rosario/Garver) – Schoop for value – low risk – Why do I feel like all Detroit rolls out are mediocre-to-shitty lefties? Well, we get another one today in Ryan Carpenter, whom the Twins should dispose of pretty easily. The Twins are second in wOBA to lefties over the last month and that should continue today. We may get a watered-down Sunday lineup, but that will not deter me as the Twins have guys from top to bottom who can mash lefties. Hell, even if Adrianza is in the lineup, he is a near-min option who hits lefties very well.

Royals (Mondesi/Merrifield/Soler/Gordon) – Lopez for value – moderate risk – Reynaldo Lopez has been one of the worst pitchers in the league this season, but people still have this isea in their head that he is good because he had one monster game earlier this season. You know what I say…even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. Fact is, among pitchers with over 150 batted ball events, Lopez is 13th in barrels allowed per plate appearance, 10th in hard hit percentage, 3rd in avg distance allowed, and 2nd in opponent launch angle. What this adds up to is that Lopez is due for a shellacking every time he steps on the mound and doesn’t discriminate to either one side of the plate. He is an equal opportunity gascan and KC should tee off him assuming they don’t shit the bed on us.

Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar Stacks (high risk, should be reserved only for tourneys):

Arizona (Escobar/Peralta/Marte/Cron) – high risk – Would like this stack a tad more if Jones was in the lineup.

Yankees (Didi/Gardner/Hicks/Voit) – Bieber has held his own but is allowing over 40% hard contact to both sides of the plate and has allowed five homers over his last two games. He’s limited damage because he doesn’t walk many people but if the Yanks can put some guys on vase against him, those homers he has been allowing could be a lot worse. The Yanks have been one of the better teams to righties recently and aside from Didi, should have zero ownership.

Mets (Alonso/McNeil/Conforto) – Surprise! The Mets have been a top ten team to righties over the past month and today they get sub-par righty Jeff Hoffman.

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup and that weather is okay. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

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