First or Last
Alright, alright, alright………Well it looks like we have some pretty good stud pitchers going tonight but you guys know how I feel about stud pitchers. Fuck them. Lets dive in and board the crazy train to see what I’ve cooked up today.
How this article works
Remember this article is meant to be a first or last approach to MLB. MLB to me is the greatest sport to go contrarian because every hitters floor is basically zero. I like being different in MLB and personally like to full stack whenever possible because that’s how you can really climb the leaderboards and take shit down. This will basically be my overview on the slate and how to approach it which means it will change from day to day. Some days I might like a lot of pitchers and other days I may only like a handful. I will always list some low $$ stacks to pair with higher priced pitchers and when I label it mini I only suggest 2 man stacks but If I don’t mention it I suggest you use your favorite strategy when building lines. The low dollar stacks can/should also be applied to the mid range pitching options. Below is a quick overview of what to attach to specific tiers of pitching
***See change below to stack approach marked with *
Top Tier- low $ and mid $ stacks
Mid Tier- low $ and High $ or Mid $ and Mid $
*Low Tier- Preferably high $ but take a look at the stack ranks and play appropriately.
So full disclosure I wasn’t on Cole at all when I first looked at things but now I have changed my mind after seeing that terrible lineup the O’s are strutting out. I’ll have a good amount of exposure to him but man are their a ton of bats tonight to play. This middle to low tier pitching is kind of dicey tonight but we still have some guys that can really smash especially since I predict Cole to be mega chalk.
High Dollar Pitching
Cole- His SO rate is insane and I was afraid to play him tonight because the O’s haven’t been that terrible and I didn’t think he was worth the risk but that lineup is god awful and filled with an assload of SO. He should be mega chalk so if we play him we’ll have to look for a nice low owned low dollar stack to pair and I have just the team.
Low Dollar Stacks to Pair
Reds- Dietrich, Winker, Votto, Barnhart- It is perfect hitting weather here in Philly and Efflin will let them fly to LHH. These guys all have very good ISO to RHP add that with Efflins 2.2 HR/9 to LHH and we have a very nice stack with lots of HR pop that cost us very little.
Tigers- Goodrum, Cast, Dixon, Hicks, and Jones-Pineda should IMO get some ownership tonight against the Tigers and rightfully so given their SO rate and his price but these tiger have been hitting the ball well as of late and Pineda is really bad to RHH allowing 2.34 HR/9, 48% FB and 47% HC. He’s bad to LHH as well but much worse to RHH
Mid Dollar Pitching-
Heaney- This is a pretty risky pick but the guy is just striking a ton of people out in his first two starts including this same Mariners team. His HC and FB are worrisome but this Mariners is a free swinging bunch so we could see a duplicate performance against them.
Low Dollar Pitchers
Pineda- I know I listed the Tigers as a low dollar stack but we cant ignore their K numbers to RHP which gives Pineda a major boost. Even if he lets a few fly he can easily get us enough points to pay off with K’s.
Kelly- Pretty much anybody against the Blue Jays is in play but Kelly has actually been a serviceable pitcher this year. The Blue Jays have been ok as of late but they still K a lot and are much worse to RHP…especially with Smoak out of the lineup. This guy could go overlooked here tonight in a major K bump matchup.
Overall Pitcher Ranks
Ranks are determined not just by points but price, ownership, lineup construction, and value.
- DeGrom* He’s gonna grab some ownership here tonight.
- Brewers- *Moderate Ownership* Yelich, Moose, Grandal, Thames I like the Dodgers matchup the most but Ill pivot to a lower owned Brewers stack here in just as good a spot
- Nats-*Low Ownership* Rendon, Soto, Kendrick, Dozier, Robles- Again they hit LHP really well and they get another one who lets the ball fly out except Marg allows it to both sides of the plate
- Pirates-*Low Ownership* Reynolds, Bell, Moran, Polanco- This team hits RHP pretty well and Woodruff is vulnerable to LHH
- Twins- *Low Ownership* Garver, Cruz, Cron, Buxton- Like Tim mentioned earlier nice low owned stack of guys killing an over rated LHP.
- Dodgers-*High Ownership* (depending on stack combo) Muncy, Bellinger, Taylor, Tuner, Freese-I listed a bunch and here’s why. Turner, Taylor, and Freese will be chalk but people will forget that Pomeranz is pretty bad to lefties as well and Bellinger and Muncy hit lefties pretty good so it’s a way for us to differentiate and get a taste of the Dodgers.
- Angels- *Low Ownership*Fletcher, Trout, Pujols, Puello- Super super super low owned stack here tonight. Marco stinks and the Angels haven’t gotten a million times better against LHP as of late but people still wont play them.
- Astros- *Moderate Ownership* Fisher, Bregman, Chirinos, Brantley- Ynoa has some major reverse splits but that O’s pen is really bad so we should get a good mix of L and R bats from Hou here. Lots of bombs could be going out tonight.
These are some pretty expensive stacks here tonight but they are the ones I like that shouldn’t be to highly owned. I mentioned those low dollar stacks up top and I would suggest incorporating them with these stacks listed.
Fav One Offs and Value one offs
***Ill go by position***
C -McCann(CWS), Barnhart—-Catcher is mostly for DK so that’s how I judge value
1B-Bruce(DK), Rhys, O’Hearn
2B- Moose, Cesar Hernandez
3B- Moncada, Kyle Seager
OF-Trout, Pham, Bruce, Puig