The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three – 6/5 – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Advice

For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but all the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are NOT the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the field as much as possible. Use these plays along with your own research! The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU! Let’s dive in!

*Remember, this is a GPP-style article so I take some more chances than others!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible matchup tool!

A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each position.

* I am going to start listing the risk level next to my pitchers and stacks to give full disclosure of what we are getting into with each guy*

Last night recap: Made great calls on Castillo and E-Rod and low single digit ownership. Stacks were correct for the most part outside of Milwaukee. Grabbed Baltimore explosion (including Smith Jr and Severino who were both listed) at low single digits. Snell and Fried killed us, though I don’t think they were the wrong calls. Fried I am little iffy on since Pitt doesn’t K much and he isn’t a big K guy to offset getting hit around, but I would probably make that call again with Bell and Polanco out of the lineup last night. My best line was a E-Rod at pitcher with a Tampa and LAD stack with Broxton and Alberto. On to tonight!

TOP THREE

FANDUEL Pitcher:
Sale – Low risk
Morton – Low risk
*Peacock – Moderate risk
Boom-or-bust: Gausman (high risk)/Thornton (highest risk)

Notes: Tonight we get some aces at the top, all of who are in some pretty good spots. As we’ve seen all season though, nothing is a guarantee, but we have to stick to our methods and continue to play the best players in the best matchups. Tonight, that gives us Chris Sale against a KC team that has the 4th worst wOBA to lefties and a league-worst .087 ISO to them over the last month. Sale has been a roller coaster this year, but he has double digit K’s in 6 of his last 8 games and should have little trouble hitting that number tonight as KC has been striking out at a 25% clip to southpaws over the last 30 days. He comes at a much better price on DK but is in play on both sites if your construction allows. I do really love Paxton, but I am unsure of what type of limitations he will face so I will list Morton next, who has an equally mouth-watering matchup against the Tigers. The cats sport the league’s worst wOBA to righties over the past 30 days and are striking out at a 26% clip. Morton ranks 10th in the league in lowest average batted-ball distance allowed among pitchers with over 100 batted ball events this season. I listed Peacock as a moderate risk because Seattle should be rolling out 4-5 lefties tonight. Peacock has been dominating righties all season long, it is lefties he has had trouble with. I am still listing him because despite those five lefties, only two of them are really worthwhile (Vogelbach and Seager). The rest are underwhelming and are huge power threats. Seattle’s main threats come from the right side of the plate in EE, Santana, and Haniger and the soft contact along with the 28% K rate induced to righties should keep Peacock afloat at a good price on FD. Thornton is a huge risk, but he is markedly better too righties and will be getting a lineup full of them tonight as we project 7 of them for New York. Even so, you may want to limit your exposure to him in such a high-risk spot. Another guy that I can’t ignore because of his price is Gausman. I know, I know…we were just burned by attacking the Pirates again, but the same applies to tonight as it did last night. Pitt doesn’t K a lot, and Gausman doesn’t rack them up, but he is inducing a lot of groundballs while Pitt has one of the highest GB rates to righties. They should make a lot of contact, but Gausman should be able to keep the ball in the park. Heck, even in his blowup last game, he didn’t allow a homer and just got BABIP’d to death. If those balls in play go to fielders, it’s a much different story. He is cheap enough where we just need a 30 from him on FD to make it worth our while but again, just realize the risk. Also keep an eye on the weather there.

Catcher (DK-centric):
Chirinos
Castro
Value*: Severino/Wolters

 

1st Base:
Bell
Freeman
* value: Chavis

2nd Base:
Moustakas
Lowe
*Dietrich

3rd Base:
Arenado
Devers
*Carpenter

Shortstop:
Bregman
Lindor
Bogaerts
*No one in this range I love tonight.

 

Outfield (6 for good measure):
Yelich
Betts
Meadows
Pence
Brantley
*Ohtani

Other positional value below 3K FD: Thames, Olson, Austin, Cano, McMahon, Alberto, Kemp, J Ramirez, Shaw, Tapia, Gardner, McNeil, Winker

Top Team Stacks (both sites):

Red Sox (Martinez/Betts/Chavis/Bogaerts/Benintendi/Devers) – minimum risk – A lot of players here so best to use a couple combos of them. Would prioritize Betts and JD. Chavis is discounted as well so he helps with cost. The Sox are in KC against Junis who shows some slight reverse splits which would favor our lefties here. Junis is a two-pitch pitcher who rolls with a slider as his secondary pitch, of which many of these Sox have hot extremely well this season.

Milwaukee (Yelich/Moose/Grandal) – Thames and Shaw for value – moderate risk – Tim, why are these guys moderate risk instead of minimum? Well, Sandy Alcantara hasn’t been great, but surprisingly, he is still allowing the 5th lowest exit velocity of qualified pitchers with a decent average batted ball distance. So, why am I recommending this stack? Splits. What I mean by that is that Milwaukee is markedly better at home while Sandy is much worse on the road. He’s allowed homers in only 4 of 11 games this season, but three of those games came on the road. He struggles on the road, he struggles to lefties – enter Milwaukee.

Houston (Bregman/Brantley/Chirinos/Reddick) – Gurriel/Kemp/Fisher for value – moderate to minimal risk – Houston gets Mike Leake tonight who is allowing 2.23 HR/9 this season, an awful number. He is much worse to righties so you may want to prioritize Bregman and Chirinos if narrowing down, but I expect them to chase him from this game and pick on a terrible bullpen where splits will come less into play. Leake is allowing 45% hard contact to righties and just a miniscule 9% soft contact induced on a whopping 46% flyball rate. Bregman may get overlooked tonight due to his price and game time so its a nice little leverage play as well.

Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar Stacks (high risk, should be reserved only for tourneys):

Minnesota (Rosario/Kepler/Polanco/Cron) – High Risk – Alright, so I need to talk about Minnesota a little. They were my top stack of the day coming into today and it wasn’t even close. They were due to face Carrasco and sport the highest ISO to righties over the last month by a 40 point margin over the second place team. I am moving them to the higher risk section because frankly, the Indians bullpen isn’t bad and we just don’t know how the matchups will shake out. The numbers are too good to ignore, but again, we won’t know the matchups which makes them a high risk stack. They may also lose a bit of ownership due to the Carrasco change which helps.

Mets (Cano/Alonso/McNeil/Conforto) – High Risk – I am going to get a little crazy with my boom-or-bust stacks tonight so beware. The Mets get Beede tonight who is dogshit to lefties and the Mets have recently gotten McNeil, Cano, and Conforto back which helps against righties.

Colorado (Dahl/Tapia/Murphy/Arenado) – McMahon for value – Extreme risk – This one is a little crazy. The Rockies have one of the lowest implied totals on the night as they get Yu at Wrigley. Thing is, Yu’s ERA at home is 3 runs worse than it is on the road, he’s allowing 1.5 more HR/9 at Wrigley, and a .382 wOBA at home compared to .305 on the road. He is going to have his hands full against this Rockies lineup that can roll out a few really lefties to go with Arenado. Even more, all these Rockies profile really well against the junk that Darvish throws. This stack isn’t for the weak at heart, but could be a nice leverage play on DK as Yu is expected to have a decent amount of ownership there.

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup and that weather is okay. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *