The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three – 5/19 – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Advice

For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are not the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the field as much as possible. Use these plays along with your own resesrch! The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU! Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible matchup tool!

A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each position.

TOP THREE

Pitcher:
Syndegaard
Morton
*value: Woodruff

Boom-or-bust: Lopez

Notes: Right off the bat I am going to address Chris Sale.  You may have notice I didn’t list him. I do like him today, he just has a pretty tough test against the best team to lefties this season and a bunch of guys that don’t strike out much. If you can fit him, by all means play him, but he is pretty expensive and the matchup COULD limit the upside needed to pay off the tag.  We can go down to Thor who hasn’t been nearly as impressive as Sale, but gets the best matchup on the board in the Miami Marlins.  I know they have the reputation of being “pesky”, but this is still a team that is striking out 25% of the time to righties over the past month while holding a .260 wOBA to them. Thor has been a roller coaster this season, but I think we can trust him in this matchup.  Today is strange in that there are a bunch of guys that I don’t necessarily want to pitch, but I also don’t want to play batters against them either.  The New York Yankees have been a middle-of-the-road matchup for righties, and Morton has been really good against that particuar hand this season to the tune of only 26% hard contact allowed and a .243 wOBA against. He also has yet to allow a homer to that side of the plate. He should face 6 righties in that Yanks lineup today. Woodruff is another guy that has dominated righties this year.  He is a little more volatile to lefties, but the Braves should really only be rolling out Freeman, Markakis and a slumping Albies from that side.  They might toss in a spare part but no one that scares me. Woodruff is only allowing a .249 wOBA to go with a nice 31% K rate to righties thus far.  He carries a little more risk than the others, and I think he gets touched up a bit, but still produces for us.

Catcher (DK-centric):
Grandal
Realmuto
Value*: Castillo

 

1st Base:
Goldschmidt
Hoskins
* value: Santana/Muncy

Notes: Hoskins and the Phillies get a horrible Kyle Freeland and the Rockies.  Freeland has been better outside of Coors, but that doesn’t mean he has been good. This is a guy that is still allowing 45% hard contact on a 40% flyball rate to righties while Hoskins is hitting southpaws to the tune of a .396 wOBA and .257 ISO.

2nd Base:
Chavis
Sogard
*No one in this range I love

Notes: Second base is a weak position yet again and one I think we can pay down at today. Kipnis should be pretty chalky as he has been and I don’t hate him, but I just assume go even lower to McMahon or Hiura and spend up elsewhere.

3rd Base:
Chapman
Moustakas
* Ramirez

Notes: Unlike second base, we have a ton of options at third base today.  The Athletics and Chapman take on Soto who has been atrocious so far to start his career. Things won’t get much easier today against an Athletics team that ranks 8th in wOBA and 6th in team ISO over the last 30 days to lefties and Chapman is a big part of that, hitting lefties to a whopping .416 wOBA and .436 ISO so far this season. Moustakas has thrown a wrench into our plans by being moved to a much deeper third base position, but I may use him at utility since he and the Brew Crew are in such a good spot.  Mike Foltyniwiecz has been absolutely abysmal since his return from injury.  He has to still be injured, because just hasn’t looked like himself.  He has allowed 8 homers in 20 innings and Moose and the Brewers should have no problem teeing off on him today.

Shortstop:
DeJong
Bogaerts
*Seager

Notes: Seager and the Dodgers figure to be chalk yet again today in Great American against Tanner Roark who seems to have held his own, but has awful metrics to left handed batters that may rear their ugly head today against a team full of talented ones like Seager.

Outfield (4 for good measure):
Yelich
Bellinger
Ozuna
Blackmon
K Davis
*Braun

Other positional value below 3K (will be important tonight): Thames, Murphy, Y Alonso, Kipnis, McMahon, Hiura, Guerrero, Galvis, Piscotty, Calhoun, McNeil, Dahl, Pinder, Tapia, Wilkerson

Top Team Stacks (both sites):

Oakland (Davis/Piscotty/Chapman/Semien)

Dodgers (Muncy/Bellinger/Seager/Pederson)

Brewers (Moose/Yelich/Braun/Thames/Cain)

Cleveland (Ramirez/Lindor/Santana)

Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar Stacks (high risk, should be reserved only for tourneys):

Colorado (Blackmon/Dahl/Murphy/Arenado) – Tapia for value…The Rockies get Eickhoff, who on the surface has looked okay, but against lefties, is allowing a crazy 75% flyball rate to go with a miniscule soft contact rate of 4%.  That may come back to bite him against some good lefties in this lineup in a small park. It hasn’t reared its ugly head just yet because he has faced mainly righty-dominant teams so far until last game when Milwaukee exposed him.  The Rockies have been pretty good over the last month to righties even on the road and come at a real nice price.

Philly (Hoskins/Harper/Cutch/Segura)

 

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup and that weather is okay. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance.  Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

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