The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three – 5/14 – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Advice

For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are not the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the field as much as possible. Use these plays along with your own resesrch! The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU! Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible matchup tool!

A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each position.

TOP THREE

Pitcher:
Sale
Morton
*value: Weaver (DK)

Boom-or-bust: Woodruff

Notes: Well, it is one of those HUGE Tuesday night slates and tonight we are graced with a slew of great pitchers on top of some absolutely awful ones.  Sale gets the Rockies tonight in Fenway and despite it being a pretty tough matchup, I think we can roll him with confidence.  He carries the highest ceiling of whatever slate he is on and he is expected to be the highest owned pitcher on the night.  He looks as close to “his old self” as he has in a while, racking up double digit strikeout games in three of his last four games (coincidentally since he was reunited with Sandy Leon who is behind the dish tonight).  This play is one you may want to reserve only for cash or single-entry tourneys, but in multi-entry tourneys or larger fields, I think we might actually be able to roll someone else like a Morton or even Smith. Sale, while looking dominant, will have his hands full tonight against the Rockies who have done a complete 180 from the start of the year to rank in the top ten to lefties in both wOBA and ISO.  Morton has a much easier matchup with the Miami Marlins who rank dead last in wRC+ to righties to go with their league-high K rate.  This should be a cake matchup for Morton who holds an 11.37 K/9, good for fourth on the slate. Smith just missed the cut for me in the top three but he would probably be next.  I just feel he is too expensive on FD where I highly question if he gets the win or not. For his price, I need the win which would account for roughly 10% of his points. Woodruff is interesting…I wouldn’t go any lower than him on this slate and if he pitched deeper into games, I’d LOVE him.  He actually has the second best K rate on the slate and has been absolutely dominant to righties which sets up well in a matchup with a Phillies team that can only roll out 3 lefties.

Catcher (DK-centric):
Chirinos
Grandal
Value*: The customary Maldonado punt on DK (I don’t expect him to do much, this is ONLY if you are completely conceding the position in favor of getting more bats around your lineup.)

 

1st Base:
Goldschmidt
Alonso
* value: Olson

Notes: This is a position that I am not too enthralled with tonight so I will be looking to pay down as much as possible.  Alonso has been killing righties this season, but the problem is that Hellickson hasn’t been AWFUL to righties, just lefties.  He’s bad enough though to righties where I think Alonso can do damage and hopefully get to one of the worst bullpens in the league. I will probably be hanging around Olson/Gurriel for the most part.

2nd Base:
Merrifield
Chavis
*Moustakas/Cano

Notes: Merrifield and the Royals should be a pretty popular stack tonight as they take on Shelby Miller and the Texas Rangers.  I prefer to play Whit against lefties, but the matchup tonight is too juicy to ignore.  He is carrying a whopping 7.3 xfip, 43% hard contact and 41% flyball rate to righties while Whit has hit righties to the tune of a .352 wOBA and .171 ISO on 40% hard contact so far this season and has some stolen base upside as well. Even more, when Miller inevitably exits early, he gives way to a terrible Rangers bullpen.

3rd Base:
Bregman
Chapman
* LaStella

Notes: Bregman and the Astros once again get a mediocre-to-bad lefty and we have seen what they have done in these matchups over the past few days. Tonight should be no different and their expensive guys COULD go a little underowned due to the big slate as well as the expensive pitching options to pay for.

Shortstop:
Bogaerts
Mondesi
*Semien

Notes: Correa and Polanco just missed the cut.  I’d be more on Polanco if Bedrosian wasn’t opening for the Angels as I think that’s going to be a tough first at-bat for him.

Outfield (4 for good measure):
Springer
Yelich
Peralta
Martinez
Conforto
*K Davis (too cheap on both sites)

Other positional value below 3K: Gurriel, Thames, White, Schoop, A Diaz, Healy, Frazier, B Crawford, McNeil, Ohtani, Duggar, Nimmo, Marisnick

Top Team Stacks (both sites):

Hou (Correa/Bregman/Springer/Chirinos) – Marisnick/Diaz for value

Bos (Martinez/Chavis/Bogaerts)

KC (Merrifield/Gordon/Mondesi/Dozier)

Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar Stack(s):

Mets (Conforto/Cano/McNeil/Alonso) – Hellickson has been absolutely awful to lefties so far this season, allowing them a whopping .737 slugging pct, .474 wOBA, 3.86 HR/9, and 47% flyball percentage.  The Mets, on the other hand, have been awful, but they do have a few guys that can smash righties. McNeil, Conforto, Cano, and Alonso all have wRC+’s of 133 or higher with wOBAs of .363 or higher so far this season to righties.

Angels (Trout/LaStella/Ohtani/Calhoun) – It is really hard to guage the ownership on this one but one thing holds true, the Angels are a top five team in almost every metric to right handed pitching so far this season and get a mediocre one in Gibson, despite what his recent starts have shown (against bad teams).

Milwaukee (Yelich/Moose/Thames/Grandal) – We called this stack last night in a low-owned matchup against Nola and tonight they get Eickhoff.  He has actually been better than Nola this season, but there are some things going on with his metrics that are catching my eye.  Granted it is a small sample, but he is allowing only 4% soft contact to lefties to go with an eye-popping 75% flyball rate.  He is only inducing a 5% GB rate from lefties and gets a team fukll of them that can do damage.  Tonight will be one of the first real tests of the season for him against lefties and to top it off, after a laboring performance from Nola last night, an already underwhelming Phillies bullpen could be operating short tonight.

 

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup and that weather is okay. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance.  Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

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