The Triple T: Tim’s Top Three – 5/13 – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Advice

For those unfamiliar with my article, I will be listing my three favorite players at each position – two of my favorite higher-priced guys and my favorite “value” play, which will be denoted with a star “*”. As it relates to that value play, I am using Fanduel players priced around $3000 on that site as a gauge, but the plays can be applied to both sites. Please note that these are not the only plays I like, but I can’t list everyone and truly try to narrow down the field as much as possible. Use these plays along with your own resesrch! The format for this article is not set in stone so if there is something you want to see or would like me to consider changing, please let me know. After all, this site is for YOU! Let’s dive in!

*Be sure to compare with your own research from our incredible matchup tool!

A star (*) denotes the “value” or lower tier play at each position.

TOP THREE

Pitcher:
Ray
Peacock
*value: None, really.

Boom-or-bust: Kikuchi (more so on DK)

Notes: Tonight is pretty cut-and-dry for me at pitcher.  I am seeing some Berrios out there, but LAA strikes out the least to righties and is the 6th best team to them in terms of wOBA so I’ll avoid him and hope he doesn’t have a ceiling game. I just think the Angels limit his upside.  Bieber should also see some ownership and I try to only play him against righty-heavy teams and the White Sox have a few lefties that could do some damage.  Ray and Peacock both check in cheaper than they should, given the slate and their matchups.  Ray gets Pitt who are the absolute worst team in the league to Southpaws in terms of wOBA and ISO while Peacock has been dominant to righties and gets a lineup with 6 of them tonight.

Catcher (DK-centric):
Garver
Grandal
Value*: Cervelli (though I don’t care for anyone down here – one reason I mess with FD more than DK)

 

1st Base:
Hoskins
Santana
* value: Garver (FD)/Healy (DK)

Notes: Santana and the Indians should be pretty chalky across the industry, squaring off against Lopez and his absolutely atrocious .444 wOBA allowed to lefties.  Sure, he put up a 70 FD a couple weeks ago, but that was the exception rather than the rule. This is a guy that is allowing over 38% hard contact to both sides to go with a 44% flyball rate to lefties and faces a shitload of them tonight in the Indians lineup, Santana has arguably been the best of them holding a .361 wOBA and .310 ISO to righties over the past two weeks.

2nd Base:
Moustakas
Hernandez
*No one really in this range

 

3rd Base:
Bregman
Escobar
* Ramirez (FD – on DK, hes in the upper tier)

Shortstop:
Lindor
Correa
*No one that I really love in this range

Outfield (4 for good measure):
Springer
Yelich
Peralta
Trout

Other positional value below 3K: Gurriel, Bour, Alonso, A Diaz, Kipnis, M Gonzalez, Shaw, Beckham, Ahmed, Bruce, Dyson (FD), Marisnick, Tilson

Top Team Stacks (both sites):

Cleveland (Ramirez/Santana/Lindor)

Ari (Peralta/Escobar/Dyson/Marte)

Seattle (Haniger/Bruce/Vogelbach/Santana)

Boom-or-Bust Under The Radar Stack(s):

Milwaukee (Yelich/Moose/Grandal) – Thames for value.  Nola has been absolutely awful to lefties this season (.423 wOBA and .576 SLG) and gets to face some pretty damn good ones tonight.  Someone made the point to me that Nola has improved of late, but my counter to that was that his past three opponents have been all righty-heavy teams.  Tonight, he will be tested with some great lefties.

Houston (Springer/Bregman/Correa/Gurriel) – Matt Boyd has been nothing short of amazing this season, so why would I suggest a stack against him? Because he is allowing a 40% hard contact rate to righties on top of a whopping 47% flyball rate.  Well, why has he been so great? Let’s take a look at his opponents. Over his first eight starts, he has faced only ONE team outside of the bottom-10 teams to lefties.  The best team he has faced ranks 15th to left-handed pitchers. Quite simply, he hasn’t faced a worthwhile team against his pitching hand and tonight gets the #1 team wOBA to lefties in the Astros.

 

As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup and that weather is okay. Don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by truly digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance.  Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!

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