English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Saturday May 4th, 2019
***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.
Things to keep in mind:
1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.
2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.
3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.
4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest using multiple payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.
5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.
6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.
Saturday May 4th, 2019 – 10:00 AM ET
1. Southampton v. West Ham United (home) – West Ham home favorite. West Ham 42% win probability, Southampton 31% win probability, 27% draw.
2. Crystal Palace v. Cardiff (home) – Cardiff slight home favorite. Cardiff 36% win probability, Crystal Palace 35% win probability, 29% draw.
3. Fulham v. Wolverhampton (home) – Wolves big home favorite. Wolves 63% win probability, Fulham 15% win probability, 22% draw.
4. Liverpool v. Newcastle (home) – Liverpool big road favorite. Newcastle 10% win probability, Liverpool 71% win probability, 19% draw.
Cardiff needs to win as they are fighting with Brighton not to be relegated across the final 2 games.
The biggest favorite on the Draftkings slate are Wolves and I would stack them up (with Crystal Palace my second favorite stack option) for tournaments over there.
On the Fanduel slate, we have the late game added in Liverpool. I’d expect their A lineup as they look to respond from a humiliating loss during the week to Messi and Barcelona virtually eliminating them from the Champions League. If Manchester City slips up once they can still win the EPL Title so I expect them to be all in.
1. Junior Hoillett – Cardiff City – $6,800 (Cash Lock) – He will be sending in tons of crosses as Cardiff is desperate for points to avoid relegation.
2. Ryan Babel – Fulham – $7,500 – Fulham is an underdog but Babel has been getting it done every slate lately and has a 5-6 point floor.
3. Wilfred Zaha – Crystal Palace – $7,800 – Zaha is a good mix of floor and upside for the price in a matchup where Cardiff will have to attack.
4. Aleksander Mitrovic – Fulham- $6,700 – This is an awesome price for Mitrovic.
5. Danny Ings – Southampton – $5,300 – Still good value and will score sooner rather than later.
6. Diego Jota – Wolverhampton – $9,400 – At this price he has no floor but he has been in awesome form so more of a tournament move. In the alternate, you could opt for the team star Raul Jimenez who has been overshadowed by Jota as of late or a gpp double stack w Moutinho as a third man.
1. Luka Milivojevic – Crystal Palace – $7,700 (Cash Lock) – He is an easy selection at this price on this particular slate.
2. Joao Moutinho – Wolverhampton – $7,100 – Moutinho should be sending in tons of crosses in a match where Wolves are favorites. This also gives us a potential hedge on a Wolves goal via the assist.
3. James Ward Prowse – Southampton – $8,300 – I wish he was a little cheaper but with his talents JWP is always in play.
4. Ruben Neves – Wolverhampton – $5,000 – The price has come up around $1,500 but Neves has been getting forward last couple of games.
1 Joe Bryan – Fulham – $5,400 (Cash Lock) – He continues to give us a weekly 9 point floor.
2. Matt Doherty – Wolverhampton – $4,900 – He has a low but it’s a solid matchup.
3. Aaron Wan Bissaka – Crystal Palace – $5,100
4. Patrick Van Aanholt – Crystal Palace – $4,000
1. Vicente Guaita – Crystal Palace – $4,700 – I think there’s a route for Hoilett to have a decent game sending in a lot of crosses without Cardiff actually scoring.
1. Roberto Firmino – Liverpool – $11,500 – I would hope he’s back in the lineup as Liverpool attempts to keep pace with Manchester City. He came on for the final 18 minutes of the Barcelona game. Worst case scenario you can pivot to Ayoze Perez or Rondon and free up $2,000. Be sure to have a backup plan and look for news/updates.
2. Diego Jota – Wolverhampton – $10,000 – This is a nice discount on Jota from Draftkings where he is the highest priced forward.
3. Danny Ings– Southampton – $8,500 – Ings is in play as we need to save money.
4. Marco Arnautovic – West Ham United – $8,500 – Similar to Ings, Arnautovic provides solid value.
1. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $11,500 – He has 2 goal upside here in a potential bounce back for Liverpool.
2. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $12,000 – I will have a lineup with him and one with Mane to hedge it.
3. Luka Milivojevic – Crystal Palace – $10,000 – I prefer getting my exposure on Draftkings where he is once again underpriced.
4. James Ward-Prowse – Southampton – $9,500 – JWP provides a better floor on Fanduel’s scoring format than Draftkings and always has upside.
5. Matt Ritchie – Newcastle – $8,000 – It’s certainly cheap although not the best spot ever.
6. Jordan Henderson – Liverpool- $7,000 – Henderson makes for a solid punt here.
7. Georginio Wijnaldum – Liverpool – $6,500
8. James Milner – Liverpool – $8,000
1. Arthur Masauaku – West Ham United – $4,000
2. Martin Kelly– Crystal Palace – $5,000
3. Jan Bednarek – Southampton – $6,000
4. Jonny – Wolverhampton – $5,000
1. Vicente Guaita – Crystal Palace – $5,500
*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***