English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Saturday April 27th, 2019
***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.
Things to keep in mind:
1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.
2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.
3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.
4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest using multiple payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.
5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.
6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.
Saturday April 27th, 2019 (5 Match Slate) – 10:00 AM ET
1. Everton v. Crystal Palace (home) – Dead Even Pick Em. Everton 35% win probability, Crystal Palace 35% win probability, 30% draw.
2. Cardiff v. Fulham (home) – Fulham slight home favorite. Fulham 40% win probability, Cardiff 32% win probability, 28% draw.
3. Bournemouth v. Southampton (home) – Southampton big home favorite. Southampton 51% win probability, Bournemouth 24% win probability, 25% draw.
4. Wolverhampton v. Watford (home) – Watford small home favorite. Watford 37% win probability, Wolverhampton 34% win probability, 29% draw.
5. Newcastle v. Brighton (home) –Brighton home favorite (despite not scoring in 6 straight matches!?). Brighton 42% win probability, Newcastle 27% win probability, 31% draw.
(I get that it is a must win game for Brighton but I don’t agree with those odds and think Newcastle even with Almiron is a much better team, on the road and all).
^ This is late game so be careful as we won’t have lineups until after the other games are about to end. Be sure to have a backup plan and on Draftkings save them for the utility spot if possible.
Huddersfield and Fulham have already clinched relegation but currently Cardiff is holding the final spot with Brighton and Southampton not far behind. With 4 matches left these are must win games for these teams and they will bring everything they have.
For GPPS I like stacking the Southampton attack (Redmond, Ward-Prowse, add whoever is at forward Ings/Long, etc.). I think you can run a gamestack and bring it back with Wilson and Fraser.
I also like Fulham for tournaments. I think you use Bryan anyway but can weave in Babel, Mitrovic or both.
You could make a case for a lot as this is a true GPP slate without any heavy favorites/top 6 teams around.
1. Gylfi Sigurdsson – Everton – $9,500 – I think he will be popular but he’s not a must have by any means. His floor comes from sharing all the set pieces (corner kicks, free kicks etc.) with Lucas Digne. He does also take the penalty kicks though for Everton and with Richarlison doubtful should play a much bigger role on offense. I think from a DFS perspective he would need 2 goals to make you pay for fading him and I just don’t see it. He isn’t a Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. Personally he didn’t make my cash line (I went Townsend/Redmond) but I had to mention him.
2. Andros Townsend – Crystal Palace – $7,800 – Townsend usually gives us a floor around 10 points or so from crosses and this as is close to a floor as we are getting here. For cash I will gladly take it and he is my top cash forward as opposed to Sigurdsson.
3. Aleksander Mitrovic – Fulham- $8,100 – He has been in tremendous form lately and Fulham is favored here. With Fulham scheduled for relegation, he will likely be somewhere else next year so he is trying his best to make a good impression. That said he is scoring dependent.
4. Callum Wilson – Bournemouth- $8,200 – I’m going to side with the talent and the fact that when the Bournemouth guys are chalk they bust and when not they show up big. Wilson definitely strikes me as GPP
5. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $6,700 – See writeup below under midfield (he is dual eligible). I would use him here though instead. I think it’s between him and Redmond for your second cash forward.
6. Nathan Redmond – Southampton – $6,300 – Southampton is a big favorite and this is a must win game so expect him to be involved.
1. Ryan Fraser – Bournemouth – $9,000 (Cash Lock) – The price has come up, but this guy came out with 17.9 draftkings points last week without a single goal or assist.
2. Solly March – Brighton – $5,400 – March is a guy who fits the build and this is a must win game for Brighton so I’d expect him to start and go 90 minutes. He has shown he can have a 10 point floor in those sort of situations.
3. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $6,700 – He has been really bad over his last few matches but his team needs a W and this could be the bounce back at a reduced price. Definitely a cash style play, not a high upside one.
4. Matt Ritchie – Newcastle – $8,000 – Ritchie is a lock week in and week out for at least 11-12 points plus upside if you can afford him. He might send in even more crosses with Miguel Almiron done for the rest of the season.
5. Luka Milivojevic– Crystal Palace – $7,700 – Luka has been balling out, getting all these penalty kicks in addition to any other peripheral stats. He is always a strong play.
6. James Ward-Prowse – Southampton – $7,900 – JWP is a super talented player and always in the mix for GPPs. He has as much upside as any of the guys listed above but can also bust more easily.
Honorable Mention: Will Hughes – Watford – $4,700 – Punt
Defense (I’d prioritize the top 3 defenseman for cash)
1. Lucas Digne – Everton – $6,300 (Cash Lock) – The easiest play on the slate. He should cost more. Cash Lock.
2. Jose Holebas – Watford – $5,400 (Cash Lock) – Holebas is back on a slate we need some floor. Cash Lock.
3. Joe Bryan – Fulham – $5,300 – Bryan keeps sending in crosses galore, showing a sneaky high floor and finally gets a plus matchup. (Cash Lock)
4. Matt Doherty – Wolverhampton – $4,900 – After a long run of poor form, he has broken out with a goal and an assist in his last 2 games. I just trust the floors of the 3 guys above him a lot more and if he’s going to be chalk again, this is where I go for the fade.
1. Martin Dubravka – Newcastle – $4,400 – You can really make a case for many of these goalies this week as there is no clear cut choice. Brighton hasn’t scored in 6 straight matches though, should try to take plenty of shots and I think Newcastle wins. Dubravka is too cheap here.
1. Aleksander Mitrovic – Fulham – $10,500 – See above for writeup.
2. Diego Jota – Wolverhampton – $8,500 – Jota has been in really good form lately and while I won’t pay retail for him on Draftkings, I love using him as a punt here.
3. Callum Wilson – Bournemouth – $11,000 – Wilson ranks higher on Fanduel where the scoring is different and the position shallower. See above for the rest of his writeup.
1. Ryan Fraser – Bournemouth – $8,500 (CASH LOCK) – See above for writeup.
2. Matt Ritchie – Newcastle – $8,500 (CASH LOCK) – Way too cheap on FD once again
3. Gylfi Sigurdsson – Everton – $9,500 – He is easier to afford on here than Draftkings.
4. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $7,500 – See write up above.
5. Ruben Neves – Wolverhampton – $6,000 I would not expect a repeat of the midweek game where he had an early goal but fine as a punt.
1. Jannik Vestergaard – Southampton – $5,500 (if in)
2. Jan Bednarak – Southampton – $6,000
3. Jose Holebas – Watford – $5,000
4. Steve Cook – Bournemouth – $4,500
I really have no preference here. Whatever fits the build you want and you like.
*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***