English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Saturday April 19th, 2019
***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.
Things to keep in mind:
1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.
2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.
3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.
4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest using multiple payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.
5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.
6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.
Saturday April 19th, 2019 (5 Match Slate) – 10:00 AM ET
1. Fulham v. Bournemouth (home) – Bournemouth home favorite. Bournemouth 58% win probability, Fulham 19% win probability, 23% draw.
2. Watford v. Huddersfield (home) – Watford road favorite. Watford 51% win probability, Huddersfield 23% win probability, 26% draw.
3. LC v. West Ham (home) – LC road favorite. LC 42% win probability, West Ham 32% win probability, 26% draw.
4. Brighton v. Wolverhampton (home) – Wolves home favorite. Wolverhampton 56% win probability, Brighton 17% win probability, 27% draw.
5. Newcastle v. Southampton (home) – Newcastle road favorite. Newcastle 38% win probability, Southampton 31% win probability, 31% draw.
^ This is late game so be careful as we won’t have lineups until after the other games are about to end. Be sure to have a backup plan and on Draftkings save them for the utility spot.
For cash games on Draftkings I’d plug in Maddison and Fraser and build from there and on Fanduel I would start with those two and Matt Ritchie who is cheaper on Fanduel.
For team stacks if going that route for tournaments, I’d go Bournemouth, Wolves, Watford in that order (LC you can really get away with a Vardy/Maddison 2 man).
Bournemouth at least Wilson/Fraser and from there King 3rd man in the forward spot w Brooks the 4th. Boruc makes an ideal correlation on Fanduel as well.
For Wolves, I’d definitely have Jimenez/Moutinho if stacking and Jota in the forward spot if looking to expand from there.
Watford I think is easier to stack on FD using the two forwards and then Masina and Foster (and you could add Doucore as well as an alternative).
Forward (the make or break position as you need the goals, there are no players with floors)
1. Jamie Vardy – Leicester City – $8,600 – After an off game versus Newcastle last week where LC was shut out, Vardy should be ready for a road trip to face off with a generally poor West Ham team. Even after last week Vardy has 7 goals across his last 7 matches.
2. Raul Jimenez – Wolverhampton – $8,900 – It is a high price to pay for a goal dependent player but Wolves are big favorites at home and he is the most likely Wolves forward to score. Diego Jota is more of a tournament option.
3. Callum Wilson – Bournemouth- $9,100 – I am going to give Wilson the slight downgrade below the other two, despite being at home facing Fulham. I think this is more about them and price than Wilson. He looks fully healthy again registering a goal and assist on the road last week at Brighton. Wilson might end up chalkier than Vardy/Jimenez.
4. Gerard Deulofeu – Watford- $7,700 – Deulofeu should be in Saturday Morning, keep an eye on that situation. He definitely has a lot of upside in this spot despite sharing the side with Andre Gray. Between the $500 discount I will rank him ahead of Gray but sort of a toss up. I think Gray has more goal scoring upside but Deulofeu had a hat trick a month ago and between his strong ball handling skills and fluid play probably has the higher floor.
5. Andre Gray – Watford – $8,200 – Gray is stepping in for Troy Deeney who will be suspended for a few games due to red card accumulation. Gray is a player with a lot of upside but he just hasn’t shown it yet. It is hard to recommend him for cash, but certainly a strong tournament play facing Huddersfield.
6. Joshua King – Bournemouth -$6,700 – If you don’t trust Wilson, perhaps you turn to the number 10 man right behind him King. He gets the same juicy matchup as Wilson at a discount and has shown 2 goal upside. My only qualm is he is essentially the #3 scoring option behind Fraser and Wilson. More of a gpp option.
7. Alex Mitrovic – Fulham – $6,800 – He has been racking up shots of late but just can’t seem to score.
8. Danny Ings – Southampton – $5,500 – I haven’t played Ings in quite awhile but this price is very low so I don’t mind it on this slate where we need some savings. If he is in there, he is always in the mix to score.
9. Marco Arnautovic – West Ham United – $5,000 – Sneaky pick, making his return.
Midfield (I love this position as a spend up for cash as there are a lot of high floor players here)
1. James Maddison – Leicester City- $9,300 (Cash Lock) – Maddison is a building block for this slate with his high floor, certainly for cash games.
2. Ryan Fraser – Bournemouth – $7,900 (Cash Lock) – Similarly, I find it hard to pass on Fraser at this price on a slate where Bournemouth are heavily favored at home.
3. Joao Moutinho – Wolverhampton – $6,500 – Moutinho is routinely underpriced on Draftkings despite being the Wolves set piece taker. He is in a great spot at home vs. a struggling Brighton team.
4. Matt Ritchie – Newcastle – $8,100 – Ritchie has been all over the place the last month, sending in crosses like a madman, coming up with game winning goals. In a cash game if you can, I’d have him right behind Maddison and Fraser but I think it’s just a matter of price as it’s hard to afford all 3 without absolutely punting forward.
5. Robert Pereyra/Abdoulaye Doucore – Watford – $4,100/$6,200 – If Pereyra is in he provides a punt but I am not sure that I want to sacrifice a midfield spot as they are so important. Doucoure is goal dependent and has no floor to speak of, but has been stepping up in the attack across the last few games and provides another way to get Watford exposure or a piece for a stack.
Honorable Mention: Robert Snodgrass – West Ham United – $7,700
1. Kiko Femenia – Watford – $4,400 – With Jose Holebas already ruled out we will be asking, “Kiko do you love me?”. In the last two matches with Holebas out, Kiko has sent in a total of 12 crosses and 3 shots.
2. Joe Bryan – Fulham – $4,800 – Bryan has been displaying a massive 7-9 point floor as of late between sending in crosses and building other peripheral stats. All that without scoring a goal or an assist in that span.
3. Adam Masina – Watford – $4,300 – Another beneficiary of Holebas absence in a plus plus matchup.
4. Arthur Masauku – West Ham United – $3,400 – Filling in for Aaron Crestwell at left-back for West Ham he is the best of the punts.
4. Callum Chambers – Fulham – $3,300 – A punt with upside as evidenced by his 31 shots on goal, Chambers is more of a tournament pick. I think Masauku a little safer.
5. Jon Goren Stankovic – Huddersfield – $3,600 – Another high risk punt if in the lineup.
1. Ben Foster – Watford – $5,400 – I haven’t used Foster all year, I don’t think he’s a very good goalie but versus Huddersfield this is the spot.
2. Artur Boruc – Bournemouth – $5,600 – I think Fulham is more capable of scoring than Huddersfield so put Boruc below Foster but he should at least be in line for the W.
Forward (Vardy, Jimenez, and Wilson are top options but a double Watford paydown is certainly in play to afford all the top midfielders. I think we have enough salary we don’t need to go there. As is, we can pick 1 of the 2 Watford guys (Gray likely more popular), pick 1 of the 3 studs listed up top and hope to get it right unless building a lot of lines.
1. Jamie Vardy – Leicester City – $12,500 – Vardy is expensive and goal dependent but he’s also the most talented forward on this slate by a lot. He is definitely the forward in the best goal scoring form.
2. Andre Gray – Watford – $8,000 – The Watford guys are a lot cheaper on Fanduel so I am more willing to take a stab there then on Draftkings where they are priced almost as high as Vardy/Wilson
3. Gerard Deulofeu – Watford- $9,000 – I’m sort of back and forth on him and Gray and leaning Gray on Fanduel for upside. I think his game might translate a little better to Draftkings. But if he’s the one who scores, wouldn’t surprise me either.
4. Raul Jimenez – Wolverhampton – $11,500 – The top dog on the Wolves, the Mexican star has a great shot at adding to his goal tally at home.
5. Callum Wilson – Bournemouth – $11,000 – The price is high but Wilson has upside here versus a fast paced Fulham team with poor defense.
6. Joshua King – Bournemouth – $8,500 – A more contrarian paydown option than Gray and Deulofeu will likely be.
1. James Maddison – Leicester City – $9,500 (CASH LOCK)
2. Ryan Fraser – Bournemouth – $8,500 (CASH LOCK)
3. Matt Ritchie – Newcastle – $7,000 (CASH LOCK) – Way too cheap on FD once again
4. James Ward-Prowse – Southampton – $8,500
1. Jannik Vestergaard – Southampton – $5,000
2. M. Yoshida – Southampton – $5,500
3. Steve Cook – Bournemouth – $4,000 (Sneaky good punt as he has been out injured)
4. Adam Masina – Watford – $4,500
5. Fabian Schar – Newcastle – $7,000
1. Artur Boruc – Bournemouth – $4,500 – He is the most expensive goalie on Draftkings but cheap here so I’ll reverse the ranks from Draftkings.
2. Ben Foster – Watford – $6,000
*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***