Champions League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Tuesday/Wednesday April 16/17th, 2019
***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL and UCL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.
Things to keep in mind:
1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.
2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.
3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.
4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest more payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.
5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.
6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.
Tuesday-Wednesday, April 16th/17th, 2019 (2 Day, 4 Match Slate) – 3:00 PM ET
1. Porto (home) v. Liverpool – Liverpool 46% win probability, Porto 26% win probability, 28% probability of a draw. Liverpool is up 2-0 on aggregate so Porto needs to take a 2 goal lead and not allow a score to send to overtime.
2. Manchester City (home) v. Tottenham – Manchester City 73% win probability, Tottenham 9% win probability, 18% probability of a draw. Tottenham is up 1-0 so Manchester City needs to score once without allowing Tottenham to score to send to overtime. At least two scores without allowing a goal and they win.
3. Barcelona (home) vs. Manchester United – Barcelona 70% win probability, Manchester United 11% win probability, 19% probability of a draw. Barcelona has a 1 road goal cushion so essentially a 2-0 lead. Manchester United must score and not allow a goal to send to overtime.
4. Juventus (home) v. Ajax – Juventus 57% win probability, Ajax 18% win probability, 25% probability of a draw. Juventus has a 1 road goal cushion so essentially a 2-0 lead. Ajax must score and not allow a goal to send to overtime.
1. Liverpool v. Porto (home)
Liverpool – I am generally avoiding the Liverpool attack on the road here, up 2-0 on aggregate. I think they will be happy to just clear the ball out.
Porto – Other than Alex Telles, just cheap pieces as absolutely needed.
Prediction: Liverpool wins 1-0 in a defensive chess match.
2. Tottenham v. Manchester City (home)
Manchester City – My favorite plays on Draftkings are De Bruyne and Sterling in that order. Beyond that I would turn to Aguero (always a better FD play if you can afford him). Manchester City has to score here so I would imagine they will be aggressive. This is a team that is more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard.
Tottenham – With Harry Kane out for perhaps the rest of the season, this is all Son and Eriksen. Son is a cheap option at the forward spot on Draftkings (Eriksen reasonably priced as well), and on the one day Fanduel slate I will try to roster both. Lloris makes for a great gpp goalie on Draftkings at the bottom barrel price of $3,600. He should see plenty of shots and we know the upside.
Prediction: Manchester City scores two goals but it’s not enough to survive as Tottenham comes up with an away goal to help them pull off the upset.
3. Manchester United v. Barcelona (home)
Manchester United – I’ll take a hard pass on United. Only if you want a gpp dart.
Barcelona – Messi is the #1 cash and gpp forward option on this site, despite busting on his visit to Old Trafford last time around. I think Dembele makes for a great play as well at his reduced Draftkings price. Suarez rounds out the attack. Jordi Alba is a reasonable play at defenseman but I would stick to those core pieces.
Prediction – Barcelona bashes MU 4-0.
4. Ajax v. Juventus (home)
Ajax – I have a lot more Ajax on Fanduel on the 2 game slate but Ziyech is an elite play on other site. I’d save Tadic for FD. I love Ajax and they can score here but this is probably the end of the road.
Juventus – The most common play will be a Ronaldo one off, although you can stack for tournaments. Cancelo is a great play and on FD I like the central defenders who are cheap.
Prediction – Juve wins 2-0, sending Ajax packing.
Draftkings 4 Match Slate
1. Lionel Messi – Barcelona – $9,500
2. Cristiano Ronaldo – Juventus – $9,200
3. Raheem Sterling – Manchester City – $8,600
4. Son Heung Min – Tottenham – $6,900
5. Ousmane Dembele – Barcelona – $7,000
6. Sergio Aguero – Manchester City – $8,100 GPP
7. Bernardeschi – Juventus – $5,600
8. Dusan Tadic – Ajax – $8,200 GPP
9. Luis Suarez – Barcelona – $8,100
10. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $7,200 GPP
1. Lionel Messi – Barcelona – $9,500
2. Hakim Ziyech – Ajax – $9,600
3. Kevin De Bruyne – Manchester City – $7,500
4. Raheem Sterling – Manchester City – $8,600
5. Christian Eriksen – Tottenham – $7,200
6. Seung Hon-Min – Tottenham – $6,900
7. Ousmane Dembele – Barcelona – $7,000
8. Bernardeschi – Juventus- $5,600
9. Dusan Tadic – Ajax – $8,200
10. Miralim Pjanic – Juventus – $6,400
Defense (all good for cash games as well as gpps, I will be using 3 in most lines)
1. Benjamin Mendy – Manchester City – $4,900
2. Trent Alexander Arnold – Liverpool – $5,700
3. Joao Cancelo – Juventus – $5,400
4. Alex Telles – Porto – $4,600
5. Jordi Alba – Barcelona – $5,100
1. Alisson – Liverpool – $5,100
2. Hugo Lloris – Tottenham – $3,600 GPP Huge Savings
Fanduel 2 Game Slate: Wednesday, 4/17
1. Sergio Aguero – Manchester City – $12,000
2. Roberto Firmino– Liverpool – $11,000
3. Fernando Llorente – Tottenham – $8,500
4. Lucas Moura – Tottenham – $8,000
1. Raheem Sterling – Manchester City – $11,000
2. Kevin De Bruyne – Manchester City – $9,000
3. Christian Eriksen – Tottenham – $8,000
4. Son Heung-Min – Tottenham – $8,500
5. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $9,500
1. Benjamin Mendy – Manchester City – $5,000
2. Joel Matip– Liverpool – $5,000
3. Toby Alderweireld – Tottenham – $5,500
4. Virgil Van Dyk – Liverpool – $6,000
5. Danny Rose – Tottenham – $5,000
1. Alisson – Liverpool – $6000
2. Ederson – Manchester City – $5,500
*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***