English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Saturday April 13th, 2019
***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.
Things to keep in mind:
1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.
2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.
3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.
4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest using multiple payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.
5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.
6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.
Saturday April 13th, 2019 (6 Match Slate) – 8:00 AM ET
1. West Ham v. Manchester United (home) – Manchester United home favorite. Manchester United 68% win probability, West Ham 13% win probability, 19% draw.
2. Everton v. Fulham (home) – Everton road favorite. Everton 54% win probability, Fulham 20% win probability, 26% draw.
3. Cardiff v. Burnley (home) – Burnley home favorite. Burnley 50% win probability, Cardiff 22% win probability, 28% draw.
4. Southampton (home) v. Wolverhampton – Southampton slight home favorite. Southampton 37% win probability, Wolverhampton 33% win probability, 31% draw.
5. Bournemouth v. Brighton (home) – Brighton home favorite. Brighton 44% win probability, Bournemouth 32% win probability, 29% draw. (This match is disgusting for DFS outside of Ryan Fraser, hate the Brighton projected lineup)
Everton will likely be the team I have the most exposure to, but will also pull from Burnley, a little Manchester United (Lukaku and the cheap defenseman filling in for Ashley Young and Shaw), and a little Southampton on Fanduel. I will skip the full breakdowns this week but looking up at the odds you should get a rough idea of who is favored.
1. Gylfi Sigurdsson – Everton – $9,400
2. Dwight McNeil – Burnley – $8,600
3. Romelu Lukaku – Manchester United – $9,100 (GPP)
4. Richarlison – Everton – $8,400 (GPP)
5. Marcus Rashford – Manchester United – $9,300 (GPP)
1. Gylfi Sigurdsson – Everton – $9,400
2. Bernard – Everton – $4,000
3. Joao Moutinho – Wolverhampton – $6,600
4. Ryan Fraser – Bournemouth – $8,600
5. James Ward-Prowse – Southampton – $8,100
6. Felipe Anderson – West Ham – $4,900
1. Lucas Digne – Everton – $6,400 (don’t get cute and fade)
2. Diego Dalot – Manchester United – $4,600
3. Marcus Rojo – Manchester United – $3,200 (gpp as rolling the dice he is in the lineup for the late game)
4. Joe Bryan – Fulham – $5,100
1. Tom Heaton – Burnley – $5,300
2. Jordan Pickford – Everton – $5,500
1. Romelu Lukaku – Manchester United – $12,500
2. Dwight McNeil – Burnley – $8,500
3. Chris Wood– Burnley- $9,000
4. Raul Jimenez – Wolverhampton – $11,500
5. Ashley Barnes – Burnley – $11,000
1. Gylfi Sigurdsson – Everton – $9,000
2. Ryan Fraser – Bournemouth – $8,000
3. Pierre Emile Hojberg – Southampton – $7,000
4. James Ward Prowse – Southampton – $8,500
5. Joao Moutinho – Wolvhampton – $8,000
1. Lucas Digne – Everton – $7,000
2. Jannik Vestergaard – Southampton – $5,000
3. Diego Dalot – Manchester United – $5,000
4. Seamus Coleman – Everton – $4,500
5. Jan Bednarek – Southampton – $6,500
1. Tom Heaton – Burnley – $5,000
2. Jordan Pickford – Everton – $6,500
3. David De Gea – Manchester United – $6,000
*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***