English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Saturday March 16th, 2019

English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Saturday March 16th, 2019

 

***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.

 

Things to keep in mind:

 

1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.

2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.

3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.

4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest using multiple payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.

5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.

6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.

 

Saturday March 16th, 2019 (3 Match Slate) – 8:00 AM ET

 

Matches:

1. Huddersfield v. West Ham United (home) – West Ham United road favorite. West Ham United 62% win probability, Huddersfield 14% win probability, 24% draw.

2. Leicester City v. Burnley (home) – LC road favorite. LC 40% win probability, Burnley 31% win probability, 29% draw.

3. Newcastle v. Bournemouth (home) – Pick em – Bournemouth 47% win probability, Newcastle 25% win probability, 28% draw.

 

Cliff Notes:

I will be playing a very limited pool of players this week and just outright punting defenseman on both sites this week. One look at the Draftkings pool in particular and you will understand why I suggest putting salary elsewhere.

I think Vardy and Maddison are my favorite plays with Wilson/Fraser and Matt Ritchie also high up there. I think West Ham is more of a full stack or nothing situation. As for Newcastle and Burnley, I think stacks are in play for tournaments.

 

Match Analysis:

 

1. Huddersfield v. West Ham United (Home)

 

West Ham United – West Ham let us down bigtime last Saturday losing 2-0 on the road to pitiful Cardiff sans Sol Bamba. However, this is the best possible matchup that one can ask for, at home facing Huddersfield. They are probably off the list after this either way but I am hoping they come through this time around and take advantage of the situation. Perhaps last weekend’s let down will also lower ownership a bit here.

I’m not in love with any particular West Ham position player but with so many guys coming off the bench, I am prioritizing the starting attack, Chicharito, Robert Snodgross, and Felipe Anderson. Snodgrass offers us some floor on Draftkings with his role in set pieces and all of the crosses he sends in, but the other two are largely goal dependent players.

Goalie Lukasz Fabianski is my favorite play from West Ham, given Huddersfield’s lack of offense but you have to pay for it on both sites.
Overall, I think a Snodgrass/Anderson/Chicharito/Fabianski stack makes for an interesting tournament play once again.

I don’t mind a cheap defenseman like Fredericks on Fanduel hoping for a clean sheet.

 

Formation: 4-1-4-1 (Javier Hernandez aka Chicharito)

Cash: Snodgrass (Draftkings), Fabianski, Fredericks (Fanduel)

GPP: Snodgrass, Felipe Anderson, Chicharito, Fabianski, Fredericks (Fanduel), any really cheap defenseman (Draftkings)

 

Huddersfield– Huddersfield now has a total of 3 goals in their last 11 EPL matches after a 0-2 home loss last weekend to Bournemouth. The Terriers remain at the very bottom of the EPL table as they await relegation down to the English 2nd tier Championship League next season.

Alex Pritchard is really cheap at $5,000 on Fanduel and Jon Stankovic is $3,100 on Draftkings/$4,000 on Fanduel so those are not the worst plays ever if you really need the savings. Aside from that I think we can entirely pass here even on a three game slate.

 

Formation: 4-3-1-2 (Pritchard; Mounie, Grant)

Cash: No one.

GPP: Pritchard (Fanduel), Stankovic

 

Prediction: West Ham bounces back from last week’s embarrassing loss to record a 2-0 win for the home fans.

 

 

2. Leicester City v. Burnley (Home)

 

Leicester City – Jamie Vardy has been on fire lately with 4 goals in his last 3 matches and along with James Maddison makes for the top play at his position on the small slate. Burnley has not been in good form recently so despite being on the road and all, I still like LC on the whole and they are favored here.

Outside of Vardy and Maddison I think Pereira is fine, especially with the lack of adequate defenseman on Draftkings in particular this week. Kasper Schmeichel is the 2nd best goalie on the slate and provides some savings if going down from Fabianski.

Demarai Gray is always tournament only as he is goal dependent, gets subbed often and does not have many goals to his name to begin with.
Other than that, you can use a really cheap Leicester defenseman hoping for a clean sheet much like with West Ham and feel alright about it.

 

Cash: Vardy, Maddison, Pereira, Schmeichel, cheap LC defensemen

GPP: Vardy, Maddison, Pereira, Schmeichel, Grey, cheap LC defensemen

Formation: 3-4-2-1 (Barnes, Maddison; Vardy)

 

Burnley – I don’t mind using Barnes or Wood in large field tournaments hoping Burnley can snap out of its funk. This is not a team that I am going out of my way to use though.

On Fanduel, I think I would stick with Barnes/Wood and maybe run a double forward stack but on Draftkings I would add Ashley Westwood to my Burnley tournament stack, if building one. The price is a bit high for my liking at $6,500 and if you remove Westwood’s fluke goal last weekend, he doesn’t have the floor to use as a one-off play. However, he does take corners and gets a lot of assists as a result, so he is someone that I would play with Barnes and Wood in 3 man stacks on Draftkings. On Fanduel, there is no way I would play him for $9,000 with Maddison only $500 more.

I am off the Dwight McNeil wagon for now as he has had 3 very poor games in a row and the price has not been properly adjusted.

 

Formation: 4-4-2 (Wood, Barnes)

Cash: Barnes, Wood

GPP: Barnes, Wood, Westwood (Draftkings)

 

Prediction: Leicester makes it two straight wins with a 2-1 road W.

 

3. Newcastle v. Bournemouth (home)

 

Newcastle – Newcastle has looked great at home recently but poor on the road. For most of the season, the same could be said about their opponent up until last weekend vs. Huddersfield.

This team always has plenty of firepower though and I think there are some usable pieces here.

There is no way I could pay $11,000 for Salomon Rondon on Fanduel but $7,900 on Draftkings is fair.

Matt Ritchie is the same price as Rondon on Draftkings and a steal at $7,500 on Fanduel. Meanwhile Almiron is priced up on Fanduel but still underpriced on Draftkings at $5,200.

Finally, Ayoze Perez has shown better form recently and can round out a Newcastle stack if going that route. I think that the guys above though can be used as one offs or 2 man pairs so they are not restricted to stack only by any means.

 

Formation: 5-4-1 (Rondon)

Cash: Rondon (Draftkings), Ritchie, Almiron (Draftkings), Lejeune/Frederico Fernandez(Fanduel)

GPP: Rondon, Ritchie, Almiron, Ayoze Perez, Lejeune/Frederico Fernandez(Fanduel)

 

Bournemouth – The Cherries have been great at home and are coming off a 2-0 win last weekend vs. Huddersfield where we saw Callum Wilson return from injury and score a goal and assist. He should be fit for the full 90 minutes this time around.

Both Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser once again make great plays either as one offs or as a pair. If stacking further I would add Joshua King who will serve in the #9 role behind Wilson, although I like the Wilson/Fraser 2 man a little bit more.

David Brooks is dealing with an injury, but either way whether in or not it won’t have an impact on the above.

 

Formation: 4-4-1-1 (King; Wilson)

Cash: Wilson, Fraser

GPP: Wilson, Fraser, King

 

Prediction: Bournemouth wins an exciting 3-2 game.

 

Draftkings Rankings

 

Forward

1. Jamie Vardy – Leicester City – $8,200
2. Callum Wilson – Bournemouth – $8,100
3. Miguel Almiron – Newcastle – $5,400
4. Salomon Rondon – Newcastle – $7,900
5. Chicharito – West Ham United- $8,000
6. Ayoze Perez – Newcastle – $6,300

 

Midfield

1. James Maddison– Leicester City – $8,600
2. Matt Ritchie – Newcastle – $7,900
3. Ryan Fraser– Bournemouth – $7,900
4. Miguel Almiron– Newcastle – $5,400
5. Robert Snodgrass – West Ham – $7,500

 

Defense (This position is absolutely terrible on this site. Feel free to punt to whoever is starting and super cheap if they can grab 4-5 points)

1. Ricardo Pereira – Leicester City – $5,600 (the best of the rest)
2. Ben Chilwell– Leicester City- $5,000
3. Nathan Ake – Bournemouth – $3,300
4. Jon Stankovic – Huddersfield – $3,100
5. Harry Maguire – Leicester City – $3,100

 

Goalie

1. Lukasz Fabianski – West Ham – $5,600
2. Kaspar Schmeichel– Leicester City – $4,900

 

Fanduel Rankings

 

Forward

1. Jamie Vardy – Leicester City – $12,000
2. Callum Wilson – Bournemouth – $10,000
3. Chicharito – West Ham – $8,000
4. Salomon Rondon – Newcastle – $11,000
5. Ashley Barnes – Burnley – $9,500

 

Midfield

1. James Maddison – Leicester City – $9,500
2. Matt Ritchie – Newcastle – $7,500
3. Ryan Fraser – Bournemouth- $9,000
4. Felipe Anderson – West Ham- $7,500 (drop off from top 3)
5. Harvey Barnes – Leicester City – $7,000

 

Defensemen

1. Ricardo Pereira – Leicester City – $6,000
2. Jon Stankovic – Huddersfield- $4,000
3. Ryan Fredericks – West Ham- $4,500
4. Frederico Fernandez – Newcastle – $4,500
5. Florian Lejeune – Newcastle – $5,000

 

Goalies

1. Lukasz Fabianski – West Ham – $6,500
2. Kasper Schmeichel – Leicester City – $5,500

 

*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***