English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Tuesday February 26th, 2019
***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.
Things to keep in mind:
1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.
2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.
3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.
4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest more high payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.
5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.
6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.
Tuesday February 26th, 2019 (4 Match Slate) – 2:45 PM ET
1. Huddersfield (home) v. Wolverhampton – Wolverhampton road favorite
2. Cardiff City (home) v. Everton – Everton slight road favorite.
3. Leicester City (home) v. Brighton Hove & Albion– LC home favorite
4. Newcastle (home) v. Burnley – Burnley slight road favorite.
1. Wolves (better pricing on Draftkings)
2. Burnley (better pricing on Fanduel)
1. Huddersfield (home) v. Wolverhampton
Huddersfield – I can’t recommend anyone from Huddersfield at this point. I’ve seen two of their matches in recent weeks and it’s very rare that they attack as they normally don’t have possession of the ball. They make the other team look spectacular as a result.
Cash: No one.
GPP: No one.
Primary Formation: 4-3-3 (Puncheon, Grant, Diakhaby)
Wolverhampton– The Wolves are coming off a 1-1 road draw Saturday away at Bournemouth with the lone score coming off the leg of Raul Jimenez. He will be popular on this slate and rightfully so as this is the best possible matchup he could ask for. He normally comes through for us with a goal when we need it, and certainly has the upside for 2 here.
Given some of the prices below, Wolves are best played on Draftkings where they are cheap and you can stack them up the most assuming this one gets out of hand much like a few of Huddersfield prior follies.
At $7,100 on Draftkings, Joao Moutinho is a core piece on that site given the value of controlling set pieces on that site and his virtual autonomy in those situations for this team. As the team leader in assists, and given his strong recent form, he is the secondary piece to pair with Jimenez.
Diego Jota is a Draftkings only play given his $7,000 price-tag as compared to a $9,500 Fanduel Price Tag.
At only $4,900 Ruben Neves makes for a terrific Draftkings play as he has the second highest shot total on the season and had taken a pair of penalty kicks one game while Jimenez was in (although Jimenez normally gets them as was the case last week). On Fanduel for $8,000, I’d prioritize Mountinho over Neves between the two midfielders.
Rui Patricio is the highest priced goalie on Draftkings at $5,500 but has the highest win and clean sheet odds on the slate. He is in a 3 way tie for the lowest priced goalie on Fanduel at $4,500 so a better play over there.
Overall, this is my favorite team on the slate by far. I rarely stack the Wolves as I’ll just use Jimenez and Moutinho when they are in good situations, but if ever to do it, this is the spot.
Primary Formation: 3-3-3-1 (Jimenez)
Cash: Raul Jimenez, Mountinho, Neves (Draftkings), Jonny (Fanduel), Patricio
GPP: Raul Jimenez, Moutinho, Jota (Draftkings), Neves (Draftkings), Boly (Fanduel), Jonny (Fanduel), Patricio
Prediction: The Wolves secure a 2-0 victory as Huddersfield gets shut out once again.
2. Cardiff City (home) v. Everton
Cardiff City – Cardiff stands only one point ahead of Southampton for the final spot in the relegation zone. They come into the second of back to back home games following a 5-1 thumping Friday Night at the hands of the Watford Hornets and Gerard Deulofeu who recorded a hat trick in the affair.
This team needs their on loan catalyst Victor Camarasa back in the lineup and as long as he’s not reinserted back in it is a bump for Everton.
Prior to Friday Night, Cardiff had looked better recently, mainly due to strength of it’s premier central defenders like Sol Bamba and Manga. The reintroduction of Sean Morrison into the lineup led to a defensive collapse so if Morrison starts again this would be another thing that I think would boost Everton in my eyes.
While there are guys like Bobby Reid who have flashed talent at times, I’m not sure there’s any attacker I really want to target from a DFS perspective unless it’s Etheridge at goalie for tournaments.
Sol Bamba is always worth playing on Fanduel if you have the $, as he is coming off 3 consecutive 30 point games on that site so he certainly has an extremely high floor and ceiling racking up defensive stats.
Primary Formation: 3-5-2 (Paterson, Reid)
Cash: Bamba (Fanduel)
GPP: Bamba (Fanduel), Etheridge
Everton– The Toffees have been pretty awful recently and if not for that I’d probably boost them up to that second spot in the rankings but they have not shown much to inspire confidence.
That’s why I think that they are best reserved for tournaments. The primary targets would be Gylfi Sigurdsson, Lucas Digne, and Richarlison in that order.
As per Fanduel’s Note on Richarlison, “Richarlison failed to place a shot on target for the fourth time in his last five appearances (four starts), and he has scored just one goal since Dec. 26”. You can see why I am lowest on him of the three.
I think Sigurdsson would be where I would go if looking for Everton exposure, hoping they win 1-0 off a penalty kick or something and he gets the lone goal. He is overpriced for cash though on both sites and is tournament only.
Getting around to Lucas Digne, he is simply overpriced at $7,400 on Draftkings. Other than him as far as Everton defenseman there’s Michael Keane for $3,400 on Draftkings if you really need the savings.
Primary Formation: 4-3-3 (Sigurdsson, Tosun, Richarlison)
Cash: Keane (Draftkings)
GPP: Sigurdsson, Richarlison, Digne, Keane (Draftkings). Other than Keane, I prefer Everton on Fanduel where their cost is easier to swallow.
Prediction: Bolstered by stout defensive play, Cardiff bounces back from a bad loss Friday Night to force a 1-1 draw against an Everton side that continues to struggle. The boisterous Welsh crowd will be a huge factor in helping Cardiff keep momentum over time.
3. Leicester City (home) v. Brighton Hove & Albion
Leicester City– Leicester at full strength is fairly easy to dissect. Maddison is the best player by far for DFS purposes and has a very high floor on Draftkings in particular. Ricardo Pereira is always fine but not necessary by any means. Jamie Vardy always has the potential to score but between the likes of Jimenez and the Burnley strikers, we have better options on this slate in that regard.
Primary Formation – 4-3-2-1 (Vardy)
Cash: James Maddison, Ricardo Pereira
GPP: James Maddison, Ricardo Pereira, Jamie Vardy
Brighton Hove & Albion – The Seagulls tend to play a lot of tight matches and this looks to be no different. Solly March has been out injured but may return for this match.
For DFS, I’d give Pascal Gros a look on Fanduel at $8,500 where the money is easier to come by as he has been on fire as of late, coming off 12 and 13 cross games. He is $8,300 on Draftkings which is a little rich for my blood there considering he is unlikely to score a goal, much more likely to grab an assist at best. That said he is fine for cash on that basis.
I don’t mind Shane Duffy as a Draftkings punt as he can generate enough assorted stats to provide a decent floor at the low price of $4,100.
Primary Formation – 4-4-2 (Locadia, Murray)
Cash: Gros (Fanduel), Duffy (Draftkings)
GPP: Gros, Duffy
Prediction: 1-0 Leicester win.
4. Newcastle (home) v. Burnley
Newcastle – Newcastle looked like the greatest team on Earth this past Saturday but it was in large part due to the fact that they were facing Huddersfield. That being said, they are still in play this week for tournaments but this matchup vs Burnley is nothing like what they previously drew.
I think Rondon/Ritchie etc. are strictly reserved for tournaments whereas at $6,500 on Fanduel, Miguel Almiron is once again a core cash and tournament play on that site. He is equally priced on Draftkings where I think he is a very strong play, albeit not a core play. He had 35 Fanduel/13 Draftkings points without scoring a point and while I don’t think that will happen again, he can always score and has a floor of about half that. I really wanted to fade him in this spot and was hoping he would get priced up but unfortunately that didn’t come to fruition.
Primary Formation: 4-2-3-1 (Rondon)
Cash: Almiron (Fanduel Core Play)
GPP: Rondon, Ritchie, Almiron
Burnley – Burnley has been simply awesome recently, extending their unbeaten streak to 9 matches with a win over Tottenham over the weekend with the help of Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes goals. Dwight McNeil continues to put up an assist more often than not in addition to his set piece work giving him a large floor. I think the forwards will be popular on Fanduel where they are very fairly priced. Their prices are much higher on Draftkings making them tournament plays on that site.
Tom Heaton is very cheap on Draftkings at only $4,300 giving him a ton of appeal over there given his strong form. He is my second ranked goalie on Fanduel.
Overall, this is my second favorite offense on the slate and I will be sure to roll out a Burnley stack on Fanduel. I’m leaning towards Woods and Barnes but I would understand McNeil as he offers safety and is an up and coming star.
Primary Formation: 4-4-2 (Wood, Barnes)
Cash: Wood (Fanduel), Barnes (Fanduel), McNeil (Fanduel), Heaton (Draftkings)
GPP: Wood, Barnes, McNeil, Heaton
Prediction: Burnley pulls off the 2-1 road win and extends their unbeaten streak to 10 matches.
1. Miguel Almiron – Newcastle – $6,400
2. Raul Jimenez– Wolverhampton – $8,800
3. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $8,300
4. Diego Jota– Wolverhampton – $7,000
5. Ashley Barnes – Burnley – $8,200
1. Joao Moutinho – Wolverhampton- $7,100 (Core Play)
2. Miguel Almiron – Newcastle – $6,400
3. James Maddison – Leicester City – $8,700
4. Ruben Neves – Wolverhampton – $4,900
5. Diego Jota – Wolverhampton – $7,000
1. Ricardo Periera–Leicester City- $6,300
2. Shane Duffy – Brighton – $4,100
3. Lucas Digne – Everton – $7,400
4. Mike Keane – Everton – $3,400
5. Any cheap starter you can punt.
1. Tom Heaton – Burnley – $4,300
2. Rui Patricio– Wolverhampton – $5,500
1. Raul Jimenez – Wolverhampton – $11,000
2. Ashley Barnes – Burnley – $9,500
3. Chris Wood – Burnley – $8,500
4. Dwight McNeil – Burnley – $8,000
5. Jamie Vardy – Leicester City – $10,500
1. Miguel Almiron – Newcastle – $6,500 (CORE PLAY)
2. Joao Moutinho– Wolverhampton- $9,500
3. James Maddison – Leicester City – $9,500
4. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $8,500
5. Gylfi Sigurdsson – Everton – $9,000
1. Sol Bomba – Cardiff City- $7,500
2. Jonny – Wolverhampton – $4,500
3. Fabian Schar – Newcastle – $7,000
4. Wily Boly – Wolverhampton – $6,500
5. Ricardo Pereira – Leicester City – $6,000
1. Rui Patricio – Wolverhampton – $4,500
2. Tom Heaton – Burnley – $5,000
*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***