English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Tuesday, January 29th, 2019

             English Premier League Soccer Draftkings and Fanduel Advice – Tuesday, January 29th, 2019

 

***This article focuses on daily fantasy contests run on Draftkings and Fanduel EPL slates. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable daily fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at-large.

 

General things to keep in mind:

 

1) The most important part of DFS soccer occurs the hour or so before the games when the lineups come out. What’s nice is that the more pro-active DFS player has an edge in this regard. Similar to baseball, we will want to make necessary switches. Furthermore, baseball lineups are far more predictable. On Draftkings be sure to save people from the later games for the utility spot if possible so you have the most flexibility possible to make changes in case that player is unexpectedly resting. Make a back-up plan if possible and leave any $ necessary.

2) We want to target players who are not necessarily goal dependent as much as possible, particularly at forward. Scoring on the whole has a lot of variance but by selecting players who normally accrue a goal’s worth of points from other stats, we can help establish a higher floor for our lineups. On Fanduel we can absorb it a bit more as they are far more generous in regards to points generated from shots, but on Draftkings we want peripheral stats.

3) Only Fanduel’s point system truly rewards defensive oriented players. We do not want central defenders on Draftkings if possible but rather want the defenders on the wings more involved on their offensive end.

4) We want players with both a high ceiling and high floor. That sounds like John Madden-esque advice but we don’t want our lineup to have to absorb any 0’s. A lot of the time this leads to a more balanced approach but most tournaments are won with forwards in the $6-9k range rather than 10k etc as those players often need to score multiple goals or points to help compensate for the paydowns. I’d only suggest more super high payups on a slate with a ton of value opened up due to injuries.

5) Make multiple lines. Scoring can be highly variant and thus rather than spend up on one big entry, create a number of small $ lines to help provide yourself some balance.

6) Check player minutes to make sure you have guys who are playing entire games and not getting subbed off mid game on a regular basis.

 

Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 (6 Game Slate) – 2:45 PM ET

 

Cliff Notes:

 

I can’t wait for this slate as I read some articles today and listened to some industry podcasts and they were all total garbage. We should annihilate them as I think we are dissecting this slate on an entirely different level, I doubt they even min cash. I would recommend playing more on Draftkings this week as the value is much better whereas Fanduel the builds are very tight. Either way I will provide a few core pieces for lineups on either site that I would just insert and build around from there.

My favorite spend ups are the primary weapons from are Arsenal and Manchester United as I think they crush this week and they are easier to figure out than Manchester City which is a nightmare with all of it’s high priced players and spread production.

 

 

Draftkings Core Pieces:

 

1. Dwight McNeil – Forward – $5,700. While Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang is my favorite pay up at forward I think McNeil’s non goal based production at a position where that is fairly limited, when combined with his very reasonable price tag makes McNeil my forward for purposes of the core piece. It is not a good matchup but since entering the starting lineup over his last 4 games he has totals of 22.3, 15.5, 17.5, and 13.5 draftkings points with 1 goal and 2 assists during that span. None of those games were particularly high scoring and he managed 5, 6, 8, and last game 10 crosses so his involvement seems to only increase. I don’t feel this is a $5,700 player.

2. Victor Camarasa – Midfield – $4,300. I think Arsenal will crush Cardiff but can’t resist Camarasa at this bargain price. I know, I know I’m high on Arsenal and Manchester United yet my 2 core pieces are from Burnley and Cardiff, what gives? I could see this game going 3-1, 4-2 given some of Arsenal’s own defensive deficiencies as well as pace and on a slate where money is desperately needed I’ll willing roll with Camarasa who has considerable point per dollar upside. I’m glad a lot of touts are crossing him off immediately. If I had the balls to recommend like 2% owned Andres Townsend facing a great defensive team like Liverpool on the road in Anfield for $6,000, this one’s easy. We won’t need much at this price. My biggest concern would him getting pulled early (although unlikely). You look at the game logs and like with McNeil, it’s just so much better than anyone else in the same price range.

 

Additional Cheap Value If Needed: Ashley Westwood M $3,500, Ruben Vinagre D $3,800

 

Draftkings Ranks Point Per Dollar

 

Forward

 

1. Dwight McNeil – $5,700 – See above.

2. Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang – $9,600 – I love Aubameyang this week and it’s one of those where if it doesn’t work out, I won’t be upset as I came into the slate wielding the big gun. Last week I headline with Newcastle at home vs Cardiff and they didn’t disappoint, smothering Cardiff to the tune of a 3-0 total. I don’t think Cardiff is going to fare any better in the Emirates this week and at minimum Aubameyang will have his opportunities but a badge certainly wouldn’t surprise me here.

3. Marcus Rashford – $10,800 – Rashford was a little sick this week but rested last game and should be good to go at home in Old Trafford vs Burnley. The price is high but he just keeps balling out with goals in 5 straight games and 6 of the last 7. Now he gets a home matchup with Burnley who has given up the most shots in the league. Fire away.

4. Leroy Sane – $10,000 – If going the Manchester City route, I think it’s best to roll with Sane who has easily been the most consistent member of the attack. Much like the 2 gentleman listed immediately above him Sane will have his chances in a game vs Newcastle where the superior team should be able to assert itself on the road. Some people will use Sergio Aguerro but I’m not a fan.

5. Alexandre Lacazette – $9,300 – For the $300 difference on Draftkings I’d just pay up for Aubameyang who takes more shots from Arsenal and unlike Lacazette usually doesn’t get subbed out up to 30 minutes before the end of the game. That in itself makes Lacazette a riskier play. However, I’d be remiss to not mention the 2nd most explosive player on an Arsenal team with a swift drop off in playmakers beyond that. On Fanduel where the difference is $1,500 between him and Aubameyang and money is even tighter, it’s more of a conversation. I’d preferably use him there if at all.

 

Midfield

 

1. Victor Camarasa – $4,300 – See above.

2. Paul Pogba – $9,600 – Pogba has been straight printing money the last month or so and should be like $11,000. Burnley has played well as of late but Cinderella’s slipper is probably about to fall off. Pogba has 13 shots on goal across his last 2 games and has as much upside as anyone here.

3. Ashley Westwood – $3,500 – This is mostly about savings but you can do far worse than Westwood who has close to 10 points in 3 of the last 4 and is coming off an 8 cross game vs the Watford Hornets. He makes for a perfect cost savings pairing with McNeil.

4. Felipe Anderson – $8,300 – Anderson busted last time but if like Mia Khalifa you’re a big West Ham fan, you could do worse looking for a large field tournament pivot off the chalk.

 

Defense

 

1. Lucas Digne – $7,400 – The price is a bit high and this is not a must spend by any means but that matchup is good and he’s very consistent. I hate defense on Draftkings on the whole this week so not too opposed if it’s a little ugly in order to spend up elsewhere. He’s the best defenseman on this slate from a skills and involvement perspective by a wide margin.

2. Ashley Young – $6,200 – Young is coming off a 12 cross, 4 shot game and is another beneficiary of Manchester United’s matchup with Burnley.

3. Ruben Vinagre – $3,800 – If Matt Doherty is out again I don’t mind a punt here, as Vinagre had 8 crosses and 9 dk points on the 19th vs Leicester.

4. Callum Chambers – $4,300 – Chambers is another money saver, albeit one without a ceiling although with 18 shots on the season you’d think he’d have scored at least once so far. He doesn’t do any one thing particularly well but cumulatively can do enough to hopefully get 6-9 dk points.

5. Nacho Monreal – $5,300 – If he does end up getting the start, and it’s at right back and not a middle position, I don’t mind eating a little Nacho, although this is a very speculative play.

 

Goalie

 

1. Ederson – $6,000 – If money ain’t a thang like I’m the EPL DFS’ing Jermaine Dupri, give me Ederson all day here. He should get the W and great chance for a clean sheet. It really doesn’t matter who scores for Manchester City as Ederson benefits from it no matter what.

2. David De Gea – $5,900 – I prefer Ederson but he’d be the #2 choice as he’s been playing better recently. I still don’t like Bernd Leno even if he’ll get the W. He’s more expensive than Ederson on Fanduel so I’d pass there.

3. Lukasz Fabianski – $4,300 – This should be a tight game so if you think West Ham can walk out with a 1-0 win and need some savings, Fabianski who certainly has the talent worth a look.

 

Fanduel Core Pieces

 

1. Benjamin Mendy – Defense – $4,000. Mendy is $6,000 on draftkings and unplayable there but at the minimum on Fanduel if he is finally back in the lineup (a watch and see) he is a lock and load as the EPL equivalent of the NHL’s Keith Yandle pricing situation a few weeks back. Just make sure he is definitely in and a GTD (the reason he’s priced down as he’s coming off injury) but “feeling much better” last I saw on his player note.

 

Forward

 

1. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – $12,000 – See above.

2. Marcus Rashford – $13,000 – See above.

3. Alexandre Lacazette – $10,500 – See above.

4. Raul Jimenez – $9,500 – The Mexican national has 67 shots on the season and will be the main man for the Wolves in an important game. I just don’t know if he has 2 goal upside here but there is some savings built in if looking for a paydown at the second forward spot.

 

Midfield

 

1. Paul Pogba – $11,000 – See above.

2. Lucas Torreira – $6,500 – Torreira gives us some more Arsenal exposure at a very fair price.

3. Leroy Sane – $10,000 – See above.

4. Gylfi Sigurdsson – $8,500 – Gylfi is cheaper on Fanduel and his game translates better here so I’d get by exposure on this site.

5. Solly March – $7,000 – I think he could easily get you 20 points here and should fly under the radar after back to back extremely tough games for BHA. Just make sure he’s in.

 

Defense

 

1. Benjamin Mendy – $4,000 – See above.

2. Sead Kolasinac – $5,000 – I’m not high on him on Draftkings but like Kolasinac on FD.

3. Jonny – $4,500 – If Matt Doherty is out on Draftkings it’s Vinagre and on Fanduel here’s Jonnnnyyyyy. He doesn’t have an incredible ceiling but he has a 10-12 point floor which is all we need here. The $ we save is valuable. If you need the extra $500 you can also drop down to Vinagre here but he is a better play on Draftkings.

4. Ashley Young – $6,000 – See above.

5. Callum Chambers – $5,500 – See above but note he has a lot more upside in Fanduel’s scoring format.

 

Goalie

 

1. Ederson – $6,000 – See above for writeup.

2. Rui Patricio – $4,500 – The absolutely lowest I’d go if you need savings. A lot of people will use Lossl which will be a big mistake when everyone with Ederson, De Gea, or Leno gets their W.

 

 

*** Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player who plays on Draftkings under the moniker “JetsFan303” and on Fanduel under the moniker “JetsFan3032”. Rich is ranked in the top 5% of all players according to Rotogrinders.com. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the rights to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds (although does not very often absent late breaking news). ***