NASCAR DFS PICKS 8/18

Alright, alright, alright……….Its Nascar DFS time my Top Flight Crew.  If you are new to Nascar DFS you must know that Fanduel and Draftkings have completely different scoring structures so your strategy will be different between the two site.  Like any DFS sport we have a plethora of stats to dig through to help us gain an edge when constructing our Nascar DFS lineups.  Throughout this article, I will certainly point out whether a driver is a better play on Fanduel or Draftkings and sometimes that driver could be a solid play on both.  Let’s see what drivers are going to lead us to victory lane this week.

First, lets go over some of the differences between Fanduel and Draftkings:

Place Differential- FD +/- .5 points vs DK +/- 1 point…….much more important on DK

Laps Led AKA Dominator- FD .1 per lap vs DK .25 per lap……..much more important on DK

DK has fasted lap points where FD has laps completed.

Place Differential on DK can be +/- 39 points vs FD +/- 19.5 points

Laps Led can vary depending on the amount of laps in the race but I’ll use a 500 lap race as an example…. DK 125 possible dominator points vs FD 50 possible dominator points.

****This is a sport where you need to make multiple lines. I usually make about 5-8 but the more the better honestly.  If you are rolling with just one line to try an have some fun thats fine but just temper your expectations.

Strategies will vary week to week depending on qualifying positions, amount of laps, and whether it’s a restrictor plate track (we’ll cover that when it is one of those tracks). Let’s dive into this week’s race.

***2018 Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway***

500 laps on a .533 mile paved track

LAST 5 WINERS

Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch

Jimmie Johnson

Kevin Harvick

Carl Edwards

DFS STATS

Dominator Points

DK- 125 points at stake

FD- 50 points at stake

Fastest Lap (DK only)

250 points at stake

Laps completed (FD only)

50 points per driver

 

DOMINATORS

There are a lot of dominator points available this week so lets take a look at the three guys who have led the most laps here over the last 5 races and who else is on my mind to pick up those valuable dominator points

 

1. Kyle Busch- 529 Laps
2. Kyle Larson- 472 Laps
3. Erik Jones- 260 (in only three races)

 

Busch comes in as the two time defending winner of this race and he is my pick to win again here.  He has a very fast car this week posting the fastest speed in the second practice and qualifying third.  He also had the second fastest 10 lap avg at the first practice and 6^th best in the second.  Busch really likes these short tracks having led the most laps at these type tracks in the last 15 races with 1515 laps led.  He will be chalky but I believe he is good chalk and I plan him being my most exposed driver.

Kyle Larson, who captured the pole, has been fast at practice boasting tremendous practice speeds and 10 lap avgs.  Like Busch he loves the short tracks especially Bristol having led 472 laps here in the past 5 races but has been unable to capture a win.  We’re going to have to choose either him or Busch on our rosters.  He’s had a very up and down year so while I prefer Busch I will have shares of Larson as well.

Erik Jones has shown great speed at practice with speeds in the top 6 of both practices and the 2^nd best 10 lap avg at the first practice.  He did disappoint at qualifying coming in at 14^th but that’s ok.  While I don’t think he’s a great pick for dominator points he has shown the speed to finish top 5 and gain some valuable differential points.

Harvick has been a beast this year and I don’t see that changing here.  He had a disappointing first practice but stepped it up in the second with the 5^th fastest speed and 7^th fastest 10 lap avg.  That culminated with him qualifying 6^th.  He loves this track leading 155 laps in the last five races finishing in the top ten in all while winning once.

PLACE DIFFERENTIATORS

Joey Logano- Starting 19^th and has 4 top tens and an avg finish of 9.4.  He does well on this type track with 12 top tens and an avg finish of 8.4 over the last 15 short track races. He hasn’t had the greatest practice times here so Im going to go with his track history and count on his crew to get the car right and get him into the top ten.

Ryan Newman- His practice speeds have been a little erratic but he had the 11^th best speed at the first practice and 4^th best ten lap avg at the final practice.  He has 3 top tens in the last three races here with an avg finishing position of 13.4.  Starting in the 24^th spot he has potential for major PD points.  Hes pretty much a lock for me over on DK at 6600 and is sure to be popular as well.

Daniel Suarez-  Again he has shown to have a top ten car this week with solid showings at practice. He’s a little pricey so im not exactly going out of my way to fit him in but if I have the salary to play him I will.

Alex Bowman-  Top ten speeds at both practices but was middle of the pack in ten lap avgs.  Hes starting 22 and is fairly cheap on both sites and certainly has the potential for a top ten finish.

MID RANGE GUYS

Stenhouse-  He has a fast car this week. 3^rd best 10 lap avg in both practices and the 4^th best speed at the second practice. 2 top 5s in the past 5 races and starting 12^th so we can scoop up some PD points as well with him.  I will be very heavily exposed to him given his price on both sites.

Jimmie Johnson-  Never popular but has shown solid stuff here at Bristol.  Def more of a FD play IMO.

Erik Jones- see above under dominators

***See above in the Differentiator section as a lot of those guys are mid priced plays.  I wont repeat from section to section***

HIGH PRICED GUYS

Since I play multiple lines I will incorporate other high priced guys who have the potential to win or place very high.  My main focus will be the other drivers in my article and these guys will be sprinkled into a few lines. These guys have good track history and solid practice times

Kurt Busch

Denny Hamlin

 

LOW DOLLAR PUNTS

Bayne- Hes shown decent practice speed and has very good history at this track.  Probably going to be pretty popular especially on DK.

PICKS TO WIN

Kyle Busch- see above

Stenhouse- see above

Harvick- see above

Chase Elliot- Super fast this week and has shown success on this track and these track types.

FADES

Truex-  He has had success on these type tracks but seems to have trouble at Bristol with a 19.2 avg finish. Hes had some decent practice time but has also had some terrible ones too.  Hes too pricey for a guy who has shown vulnerabilities at this track.  I think he’ll be popular so ill fade it.

Bubba Wallace (not a total fade)-  I hate to say that anyone in this price range is a fade but I am seeing his name all over the place.  He didnt really do anything in practice that is telling me to play him.  He did have an impressive showing here earlier in the year finishing 16th and thats what everyone is going off of.  Looking back at that race Bubba had a much faster car with pratice speeds eclipsing 127 twice.  Between practice and qualifying this week he hasnt eclipsed 125.  So while I say fade its not a total fade and we should have a share or two because I think he is going to be popular from what I’ve seen out there.