Lenny’s Links – WGC Bridgestone

REMINDER:

If you haven’t already, checkout our PGA Rankings page.


Basic Facts:

Essential Stat Categories:  SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Putting, GIR


Mile High Overview

First and most important, let’s get this out of the way, there is NOT A CUT this weekend.  That’s right, all of your guys are guaranteed to play all 4 rounds, unless they withdraw or get DQ’d, then I can’t help you anyway. That’s a really big thing though, the field is small, 74 golfers at last count, so there will be less variations this week.  This is a field that is honestly as star studded as a Major, all of the Top 50 in World Rankings are here.  Majors are always a cluster, and this won’t be any different.  Lets address this, course history as you perceive it will look different, because there’s never a cut here.  So when looking at course history, everyone might look good, but only few actually are.  Value will be absolutely vital this week, as will be picking the winner.  Recent form I also think will play a massive factor here, as all of the hottest golfers in the world are here.

 


Vegas Favorites

(Better than 50/1 Odds)
Dustin Johnson 8/1
Tiger Woods 14/1
Rory McIlroy 14/1
Justin Rose 16/1
Jordan Spieth 24/1
Rickie Fowler 25/1
Jason Day 27/1
Justin Thomas 27/1
Francesco Molinari 30/1
Tommy Fleetwood 30/1
Jon Rahm 30/1
Brooks Koepka 35/1
Henrik Stenson 45/1
Alex Noren 50/1
Xander Schauffele 50/1
Hideki Matsuyama 50/1

Roster Construction Thoughts

Two trains of thought will come on DK.  Alot of people are going to try to punt 1-2 guys into the 6k range to afford 4 studs.  I’m not sure that’s an advantageous thing to do this week.  1 6k punt at most.  Finishing position will be vital here since everyone makes the cut, it’s always the goal, but getting 6 guys in the top 25 is vital for a takedown this weekend. Good news is that ownership should be pretty well spread out thanks to some aggressive pricing on DK and FanDuel.

 

SPECIAL NOTE:  This is a crazy week, there are about 40 guys I could list, but we have to draw lines somewhere.  There’s a ton of talent here, guys like Rory, Spieth, Rose, Fowler, Koepka, etc could all easily be listed. At some point, I have to draw a line.  It’s a 74 player field, and I can’t give you an article with half the field in it.  


Top Flight Picks

If you haven’t seen one of my articles before, I like to use sport relevant names for my picks.  Ranks Shown are their Ranks in this field only. 

NOTE:  I’ve removed the Stat Rankings from this page, all stats you need can be found on the PGA Rankings page now. 

Albatross:

Excellent Picks, high exposure, and my favorites to win.

  • Dustin Johnson – So this is one train of thought, pay up for the big guy.  He’s fresh off a win, and his recent form if you subtract the Open is as good as it gets, 1st at FedEx, 3rd at US Open, 1st at RBC Canadian.  I’ve realized a slight trend with DJ where he seems to win on courses where scoring goes real low.  Scoring on this course has not been traditionally super low.  Because of the balance this week, I’ll be playing a lower exposure of all these guys, Dustin probably the lowest.  You just can’t afford him and the other great guys.  I like his chances to win outright, so I have to put him here, but DFS wise, he may not be my absolute favorite.

 

  • Tiger Woods – I think this may be the first time since the Masters that I’ve included Tiger Woods in my picks, and his price has gotten a little outrageous for someone who hasn’t won (yet).  Tiger has an amazing course history here dating back to his younger days.  On his 11th hole final day of The Open, Tiger Woods actually was tied for the lead.  Let that sink in.  I’ve been pessimistic of his chances of returning to great form, but after watching his last 2 appearances where he finished 4th at the Quicken Loans, and 6th at The Open, I’m in.  Tiger can definitely win here this weekend.  He’s a Tee to Green monster, on par with the next guy on our list.  Also, his overall Greens in Regulation are a little low, but his GIR 125-150 yards is 5th in this entire field, and that just happens to be the general approach shot size he’ll be facing quite a bit this week.  Price makes it hard to swallow a ton of exposure here, but I’ll have some for sure.

 

  • Francesco Molinari – Full confession, he’ll probably be my top exposure this week.  For his recent form, his price is simply way too low.  Just don’t think that’s going to go unnoticed.  He could be very chalky in this field at this price.  He’s kind of in uncharted territory with how well he’s been playing, but honestly this guy just tends to hover around til the last day and then he seems to pounce on opportunity better than anyone I’ve seen in recent memory.  I’m going to ignore the fact that he hasn’t played well on this course before, because quite frankly he’s never played this well before in his career.  Another T2G monster like the other two on this list, his other distinct advantage is a 70.25% Greens in Regulation, paired with a 31% birdie or better rate when putting.  Honestly putting is the weakest part of his game, but if you put yourself super close to the hole with approaches (which he can do), it won’t matter.  Love this pick, love the price, and if its chalk, feed me.

 

TO SEE A COMPARISON OF THESE 3 GOLFERS STATISTICALLY, CHECKOUT OUR NEW COMPARISON TOOL HERE

 


Eagles:

Solid picks, hopeful top 10 finishes, outside chance of winning.

  • Henrik Stenson – Second highest grade on our rankings this week, and probably the best ball striker in the business coming in.  He’s flat out dangerous, 78% Hit Fairways, 74% Greens in Regulation, geez if this guy can just putt slightly above his average this weekend, good night.  I’d never rule him out of anything, and yet again, he finds himself at a super friendly price range.  I simply can’t avoid playing a lot of him.  Did I mention he hasn’t finished worse than 19th here in his last 4 appearances?

 

  • Justin Thomas – This one, literally one of the biggest head scratchers ever.  How does a Top 5 in the world golfer land at only $8800 on DK?  Recent Form has to be the reason, but you’d be naive to think he’s going to keep being that bad.  So he finished 80th at the Open, so what he finished 56th at the Travelers.  That’s right, I don’t care.  Dudes too talented for this price, period.  The upside here, at 8800 on DK, is a full blown win.  Yeah, please.  Thanks.  Also…there’s a chance his ownership may not be excessive because Brooks Koepka is right there with him at 8900.  I like Koepka for sure, but LOVE Thomas. Why do I like him so much?  41% of his rounds end in the 60s, he’s above average in literally every category you can name.

 

  • Zach Johnson – Zach has a 6 year average on this course of 18.67, which is flat out awesome considering his price on both sites (9800FD/8100DK).  He’s an easy, high upside plug and play on both sites.  He can fit into a lot of creative lineups, and he’s a great cash play as well.  He’s in great form, his last 3 appearances were all Top 25’s.  Like Thomas above him, he is above average in every statistical category, so he’s got alot of weapons he can use here.  Based on both course form and recent form, how does he not finish top 25 here?

TO SEE A COMPARISON OF THESE 3 GOLFERS STATISTICALLY, CHECKOUT OUR NEW COMPARISON TOOL HERE


Birdies: 

Aiming to hit the Top 25. Goal here isn’t to give you more expensive guys who are obvious, we want affordable guys who can hit top 25’s. 

  • Matt Kuchar – Six year average here is 15.33, including 5 Top 25’s and never worse than 27th.  He’s coming off a missed cut, so he’ll be motivated to prove he’s better than that.

 

  • Paul Casey – In his last 4 appearances here he’s finished no worse than 27th, and had a Top 5 finish just last year.  He’s very exceptional Tee to Green, and is once again very affordable.  Hard to ignore the talent for the price.

 

  • Adam Scott – Probably my favorite “lower price” guy of the week, he comes in at just $7500 on DK and $9500 on Fanduel.  Another Tee to green guy who has struggle horribly with his putter this season.  He’s hitting an insane 71% of his Greens in Regulation, and has a 6 year average here of 22.50.  At 7500, I’d take a top 25 finish.  And I think I’ll get one.

TO SEE A COMPARISON OF THESE 3 GOLFERS STATISTICALLY, CHECKOUT OUR NEW COMPARISON TOOL HERE


Pars: 

Roster filling mid tier guys who probably won’t finish top 10 or maybe even top 25 but can help you win.

  • Bryson DeChambeau
  • Alexander Noren
  • Luke List
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Xander Schauffele

Bogeys:

Guys I’d only take a small GPP Flyer on, have a good possibility of busting and missing the cut.  Consider this your “punts” section, if you’re trying to jam in high dollar guys, these are some cheapies who could save your day.  (**Note, no cut this week**)

  • Anirban Lahiri
  • Jhonattan Vegas
  • Thorbjorn Olesen

Lenny Hadley

Lenny Hadley is a Daily Fantasy player for the past 5 years, specializing in NBA, NHL, NFL, and PGA. He operates under the user name leonardhadley on both DraftKings and FanDuel, currently ranked top 10% overall on RotoGrinders.

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