Hey flight crew, my computer has crapped the bed on me today and I lost my whole Triple T but I wanted to give some thoughts regardless. Stl and Oakland will be the chalk tonight. Stl gets Homer Bailey at Great American (always a treat) and Oakland gets Mike Minor in Arlington. Two juicy stacks that provide some value. No one is being groundbreaking by suggesting these stacks and they will be highly owned so I am not going to waste your time suggesting them, you know well enough by now that they’re in play. Persoanlly, I will just be plucking some pieces for value in tournaments but largely looking elsewhere to differentiate. Here are some stacks that I think we can use along with that chalk to differentiate a little bit.
Chicago Cubs. They get Clay Buchholz, who at first glance has seemed to pitch pretty well so far this year, but I think it might be a matchup we can exploit. Over the last month, the Cubs are second in the league in wOBA to right handed pitching and the .168 ISO number is unspectacular, but still adequate. Buchholz has been holding his own, but he’s still allowing a ton of hard contact, an unimpressive K rate and xfips over 4 to both sides of the plate. His stats don’t scream “stack against me”, but if you glance at his game log, you’ll see that this production may be a tad fradulent. He’s faced the Mets twice, the Pirates twice (when they were bad), SF, Mia, and Oakland, all in pitcher-friendly parks. This will be his first real test and it’s against a great offense in a tiny bandbox ballpark. My money is on the Cubs to get to ol’ Clay.
Pittsburgh Pirates. This one may not seem like it’s that contrarian, but I think tonight it will be a little bit. Their prices have increased alot over the past couple weeks, everyone will be focusing on the aforementioned Stl and Oakland stacks, and there is a game in Coors. They get Shane Bieber and his 52% hard contact, .576 slugging, and .411 wOBA to left handed batters. This guy is pretty tough on righties, but lefties are obliterating him. I’m hoping we can get some of these pirates a little under the radar in this matchup.
Cleveland Indians. I’m less comfortable with this one and I was torn on listing either them or the Yankees as Musgrove isn’t completely useless, but he can be picked on with left handed hitters and of course we know that the Indians have a few good ones. They came in at very low single digits last night so I am expecting more of the same. I guess you could consider this more of a boom-or-bust option since they busted on people last night and face an even better pitcher tonight, but I think they can overcome the matchup and put some runs up on Musgrove and his .500 slugging and .374 wOBA allowed to lefties so far this season. If this play doesn’t interest you, you can pivot to Didi, Stanton and Hicks on the Bronx Bombers or even look to the Brewers as a sneaky low-owned stack with Thames back. You can throw in Yelich, Shaw, and Aguilar with him.
As always, remember to make sure these players are indeed in the lineup, that weather is a go, and don’t forget that baseball is by far the highest variance sport but by digging in to the numbers and turning over every stone, we can mitigate that variance. Use these plays along with your own resesrch! Please follow Top Flight Fantasy Sports on Twitter and Facebook if you haven’t already and good luck!
*Tim is ranked in the top %1.5 of DFS players and plays real-money contests on Fanduel player by the name of “thekost” and DraftKings player by the name of “MrRichardHead” and while he uses almost all of the players in his article, he reserves the right to play players not listed, either due to salary constraints, roster construction, or injury news.