Left Turns – Toyota Owners 400

Track: Richmond Raceway

Type:  Short Track (0.75 Miles)

Time: 6:30 on FOX

 

Top 10 Qualifying:

1 #78 Martin Truex Jr.
2 #9 Chase Elliott
3 #22 Joey Logano
4 #11 Denny Hamlin
5 #42 Kyle Larson
6 #41 Kurt Busch
7 #20 Erik Jones
8 #1 Jamie McMurray
9 #24 William Byron
10 #4 Kevin Harvick
11 #88 Alex Bowman
12 #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 

Top 10 Practice 1

1 #9 Chase Elliott
2 #42 Kyle Larson
3 #78 Martin Truex Jr.
4 #1 Jamie McMurray
5 #22 Joey Logano
6 #4 Kevin Harvick
7 #18 Kyle Busch
8 #95 Kasey Kahne
9 #37 Chris Buescher
10 #2 Brad Keselowski

Top 10 Practice #2

1 #42 Kyle Larson
2 #43 Darrell Wallace Jr.
3 #1 Jamie McMurray
4 #14 Clint Bowyer
5 #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
6 #8 Daniel Hemric
7 #88 Alex Bowman
8 #11 Denny Hamlin
9 #3 Austin Dillon
10 #47 AJ Allmendinger

 

How to Play This Week:

400 Laps in this race, 200 points for Fastest Laps available, and 100 points available for Laps Led.  That’s going to be a nice chunk of points, and there’s a good chance those laps will be split between 2-3 drivers, so we’ll need to find 2 of those drivers for our lineup.  The dominators as always are pretty expensive.  Look for 2 really high priced guys(10k+), 2 guys around 8-9k, a guy in the 6-7k region and a complete punt.  Lets walk through our choices.  As always whenever possible get lap differential involved in your choices.  Those points can make a huge difference.

 

The Dominators

10k+ guys, this week you’ll want 1-2 of them.  Listed in order as I like them

Kyle Busch

Welcome to Kyle Busch chalk week, and for pretty obvious reasons.  A driver and team this talented starting at nearly the end of the pack, the upside is endless here.  He’ll probably work his way up the pack pretty quickly, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top 10 within the first 75 laps.  In 25 career races at Richmond, Busch has 4 wins, 15 top 5’s, and 18 top 10’s.  Despite all that he’s only held the pole position once.  His average finish here is 7th, so you really need to have this guy in almost all your lines this week.  It hasn’t been a great week of practice or qualifying for him, but I find it very hard to believe he won’t be in contention.

Martin Truex Jr.

Truex led 198 laps in the last race on this track, and is kicking things off from the pole position this week.  He could be a very easy way to run out with some dominator points right off the bat.  I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he led all of stage 1’s laps on Sunday.  His 2nd practice this week wasn’t all that good, but we’ll cross that off with a 3rd best 1st practice this week.  The guys a very quality play this week, and if you’re not seeking differential points you can definitely play Truex heavily this week.  He should get a nice share of the dominatr points available.

Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson has raced here 8 times in his career, and he’s finished with an average spot of 10th.  That’s pretty solid.  Also consider that he won the last race at this track, and that’s very repeatable this week.  Larson had great practice runs, and qualified a little lower than those.  He had the best practice run on Friday overall, but then didn’t take the pole as many expected.  He has a chance to get into the lead and compete for a win here.

Kevin Harvick

We can’t ever really rule out Harvick, and he’s starting at 10th so he’s got an opportunity to gain a few differential points.  Short tracks aren’t usually his forte, but he can still do well here.  The biggest issue?  He’s expensive and I’ve listed 3 guys in front of him.  But if he strikes your fancy go for it.  In 34 career races here he’s won 3 times, and finished average of 10th.  Worth noting his second practice run was awful, ranking 27th in the field.

The Contenders

8-10k guys, this week you’ll want at least 2 of them.  Listed in order as I like them

Ryan Newman

Unfortunately I don’t think we’ll be the only one who knows this, but Ryan Newman absolutely rocks at Richmond.  He was 3rd here in 2017’s Federated Auto Parts 400, and has an average finish of 11th over the course of 32 races.  His practice runs were my only cause for concern listing him here, 17th and 20th respectively.  Sometimes guys just tend to race better than they practice, not very uncommon.  Newman is a great play this weekend.

Denny Hamlin

Denny’s a personal favorite of mine, and has great track history.  9th place average finish in 23 career races including 3 wins.  What concerns me is that on a weekly basis this year, his pit crew seems to make some completely stupid mistake that costs him big time.  Last week for example, while he had just taken the lead for the first time in the race, he had a loose tire and had to come in to get that resolved.  That’s on the pit crew, not on Hamlin.  if his pit crew could make it through, I’d play Denny in a heartbeat.  But right now that’s just a huge if for me.   He qualified well and practiced well.  He’s never terribly over owned, and his price just went up this week which may cause some to back away.  Could be a chance for him to finally break through.

 

Joey Logano

Logano is a very good driver on this track, and can win here (as evidenced last year).  He’s finished 11th here on average over 18 races.  He has 2 wins, and 10 top 10’s.  His practice runs washed each other out, one good and one bad, but he qualifiied very well, and has a sneaky chance to be a dominator candidate this week if he can get out in the lead.

Ryan Blaney

Blaney practiced really poorly this week, but when it mattered he qualfiied decently at 13th.  I think he’s got a decent shot to be a sleeper top 5 finisher this week.  He’s only raced here 4 times, and doesn’t have a top 10 finish to his name.  This one is my gut feeling of the week.

 

The Fillers

Use as needed.  You’ll probably need at least 1 to fill out your lineup.

 

Jamie McMurray

McMurray’s practice times were off the charts this week.  He may appear on the surface too high of a qualifier, but he practiced even higher than his qualifying spot.  At his price he’s almost a must play in this race, because he can help you afford some big dogs.

Rickey Stenhouse Jr.

Stenhouse was a man on a mission last week at Bristol, watching the race I have to be honest I’m shocked he didn’t win.  If he carries that over to a similar style track this weekend, he’s gonna be another guy you’ll want big time exposure to.  He fairs well here historically, practiced well, and qualfiied decently.  If he’s in a zone this week he’ll have a great shot at a top 5 finish and could still be under owned since he’s a at a similar price point to Newman.

Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch is another great short track racer, he’s got a solid history here with 15th average finish in 34 appearances.

Daniel Suarez

He’s finished 7th and 12th in the last 2 races here.  He’s not going to do anything fantastic like win the race, so don’t get your hopes up.  But you’ll need a guy in this ballpark who can finish top 10, and he’s got the ability.

 

The Punts

Use as Needed. 

Cassill

Sorenson

Whit

Ty Dillon

Lenny Hadley

Lenny Hadley is a Daily Fantasy player for the past 5 years, specializing in NBA, NHL, NFL, and PGA. He operates under the user name leonardhadley on both DraftKings and FanDuel, currently ranked top 10% overall on RotoGrinders.

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